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The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2024/25 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2023/24 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 - Volume LI - Cocoa year 2024/25 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2025.
The 2024/25 season is envisaged to be better than the 2023/24 season despite the challenges faced by producers which includes but not limited to weather conditions, diseases, pests, old tress etc. High cocoa prices which have prevailed for the past several years has incentivized farmers to put in more efforts and resources in cocoa farming despite the challenges they face. On the contrary, declines in demand are expected as high cost of raw materials for cocoa users seems to be causing reduced demand.
Compared to the 2023/24 season, global cocoa supply is anticipated to increase by almost 7.8% to 4.840 million tonnes. Global cocoa demand is projected to decrease by almost 4.8% to 4.650 million tonnes.
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Summary of forecasts and revised estimates |
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Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Year-on-year change |
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Previous |
Revised |
Forecasts |
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estimates a/ |
estimates |
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(thousand tonnes) |
(Per cent) |
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World gross production |
4 382 |
4 489 |
4 840 |
+ 351 |
+ 7.8% |
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World grindings |
4 816 |
4 885 |
4 650 |
- 235 |
- 4.8% |
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Surplus/deficit b/ |
- 478 |
- 441 |
+142 |
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End-of-season stocks |
1 300 |
1 336 |
1 478 |
+ 142 |
+ 10.6% |
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Stocks/Grindings ratio |
27.0% |
27.3% |
31.8% |
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