WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FOR WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 06, 2020?

MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q2, 2020 GDP Growth -3.2%
Average GDP Growth for 2020 0.9%
2020 Projected GDP Growth 0.9%
BoG Policy Rate – Sep, 2020 14.50%
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate 13.55%
Inflation for Sep, 2020 10.4%
End Period Inflation Target - 2020 11.1%
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Jul, 2020 7.4%
2020 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) 11.4%
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Jul, 2020 263.1
Debt to GDP Ratio – Jul, 2020 68.3%

STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) moderated for the week following losses in 2 financial stocks. The Index shed 23.48 points (-1.28%) to close at 1,813.79 points, increasing its year-to-date (YTD) loss to 19.64%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE FI) also lost 42.65 points (-2.58%) to close at 1,608.59 points, reflecting YTD loss of 2.58%.

Market capitalization eased by 0.46% for the week from GH¢53,115.38 million at the close of the previous week to GH¢52,869.61 million, representing YTD decline of 6.91%.
A total of GH¢8,876,776 shares, valued at GH¢29,880,475.64 changed hands for the week, compared with 6,521,323 shares, valued at GH¢5,468,159.78 in the preceding week.
Ecobank Ghana Limited dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 46.59% and 69.59.01% of total volume and value of shares traded respectively.
The market closed on Friday with 2 laggards and no gainer. Ecobank Ghana Limited, the worse decliner for the week, posted a price decline of 12.98% to close at GH¢4.96 per share from GH¢5.70 at week open.
Thirty-six (36) counters remained flat at the closing bell on Friday.
The graphs and table below highlight activity on the market.

Best 5 &Worst 5 Performing Stocks
Best Performing Stocks: YTD Return
Cocoa Processing Company 50.00%
SIC Insurance Company Ltd. 25.00%
Camelot Ghana Ltd. 22.22%
Aluworks Limited 10.00%
Dannex Ayrton Starwin Plc. 2.56%

Worst Performing Stocks:
Fan Milk Ltd. -74.51%
Unilever Ghana -43.84%
Guinness Ghana Breweries Ltd. -40.83%
Ecobank Ghana -38.69%
Republic Bank (Ghana) Ltd. -26.79%

CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi weakened marginally against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢5.7107/$ on Friday, compared with GH¢5.7100/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.01% and 3.10% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 10.07% a year ago.
The Cedi also weakened against the GBP for the week. It traded at GH¢7.4827/£, compared with GH¢7.3913/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.22% and 2.22% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD depreciation of 10.16% a year ago.
The Cedi again weakened against the Euro on the week. It traded at GH¢6.7690/€, compared with GH¢6.6703/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.46% and 8.24% respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD depreciation of 6.72% a year ago.
The Cedi likewise weakened against the CAD on the week. It opened trading at GH¢4.2847/C$ but closed at GH¢4.3703/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.96% and 2.34% respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 12.79% a year ago.

Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Currency Pair Year Open Week Open Week Close Change
% YTD
%
01-01-20 02-11-20 06-11-20
USD/GHS 5.5337 5.7100 5.7107 -0.01 -3.10
GBP/GHS 7.3164 7.3913 7.4827 -1.22 -2.22
EUR/GHS 6.2114 6.6703 6.7690 -1.46 -8.24
CAD/GHS 4.2681 4.2847 4.3703 -1.96 -2.34
Source: Bank of Ghana

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢1,924.00 million for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills and the 2-Year Treasury Note. This compared with GH¢838.06 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day and 364-Day Bills and 2-Year Note all stayed flat at 14.06% p.a., 16.97% p.a. and 18.50% p.a. respectively. The 182-Day Bill however added 3bps to settle at 14.13% p.a.
Please see below for more details.
Security Year Open Previous Yield % Current Yield % WoW Chg ( %) YTD Chg (%)
01-01-20 30-10-20 06-11-20
91 Day TB 14.70 14.06 14.06 0.03 -4.30
182 Day TB 15.15 14.10 14.13 0.24 -6.72
364 Day TB 17.90 16.97 16.97 0.01 -5.19
2-Yr FXR TN 20.95 18.50 18.50 0.00 -11.69
3-Yr Bond 19.70 19.00 19.00 0.00 -3.55
5-Yr Bond 19.50 19.85 19.85 0.00 1.79
6-Yr Bond 21.00 19.50 19.50 0.00 -7.14
7-Yr Bond 16.25 20.00 20.00 0.00 23.08
10-Yr Bond 19.80 19.80 19.80 0.00 0.00
15-Yr Bond 19.75 19.75 19.75 0.00 0.00
20-Yr Bond 20.20 20.20 20.20 0.00 0.00
Source: Bank of Ghana

COMMODITY MARKET
Gold prices closed stronger for the week on hopes of a new economic stimulus package for the U.S. as the Democratic Party’s candidate looks set to win the national election. Gold futures for December delivery settled at US$1,951.70 per ounce on Friday, reflecting w/w and YTD gains of 3.82% and 28.32% respectively.
Oil prices closed lower on Friday but posted gains for the week. Brent futures traded at US$39.45 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 5.31% and 40.23% respectively.
Prices of Cocoa also closed higher for the week. Cocoa futures settled at US$2,333.00 per tonne, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 1.74% and 8.15% respectively.

International Commodity Prices
Commodities Year Open Week Open Week Close Chg
% YTD
%
01-01-20 02-11-20 06-11-20
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl)
66.00 37.46 39.45
5.31
-40.23
Gold (USD/t oz.)
1,520.95 1,879.90 1,951.70
3.82
28.32
Cocoa (USD/MT)
2,540.00 2,293.00 2,333.00
1.74
-8.15
Source: www.investing.com

BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Effective Demand: Effective demand refers to the willingness and ability of consumers to purchase goods at different prices. It shows the amount of goods that consumers are actually buying – supported by their ability to pay.
Source: https://www.economicshelp.org/concepts/effective-demand/

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Disclaimer
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