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The battle for relegation looks like it's going to the wire.
Relegation was confirmed for Southampton with a 2-0 defeat by Fulham, ending an 11-season stay in the Premier League.
Everton remain one point above Leeds and the bottom three after Sunday's 3-0 defeat by Manchester City.
Leicester's 3-0 defeat by Liverpool kept them in the relegation zone - and they could be relegated by next Monday
With four points separating Nottingham Forest, Everton, Leeds and Leicester, there is plenty more drama to come.
Simon Gleave, head of sports analysits Nielsen's Gracenote, said: "Leicester City's defeat means that they are now the most likely to go down of the quartet of clubs still battling against relegation.
"Thirty-four points remains the total where it becomes more likely to stay up than go down."
| Club | Points | Played | Goal difference | Points per game (last 10) | Gracenote's chance of relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 16th | 34 | 36 | -31 | 0.8 | 17% |
| Everton | 17th | 32 | 36 | -24 | 1 | 29% |
| Leeds | 18th | 31 | 36 | -25 | 0.8 | 72% |
| Leicester | 19th | 30 | 36 | -18 | 0.6 | 83% |
| Southampton | 20th | 24 | 36 | -35 | 0.2 | Relegated |
Gracenote chance of relegation (17%)
Nottingham Forest are in the Premier League for the first time since 1998-99 after winning promotion from the Championship last season and Steve Cooper has signed 30 players in a bid to keep them in the top division.
Two wins and a draw from the past four games leaves them as the best of the bottom five, with 34 points.
Gracenote fact: Nottingham Forest have made fewer passes this season than any other Premier League team and their percentage of completed passes (73%) is the lowest in the competition.
Still to play: 20 May: Arsenal (h); 28 May: Crystal Palace (a)
Gracenote chance of relegation (29%)
Everton podcaster Ped McPartland tells The Football News Show his club are "facing a crisis"
Everton's results improved after Sean Dyche became manager at the end of January following the sacking of Frank Lampard, but not enough to steer them clear of trouble.
Sunday's 3-0 defeat by Manchester City dented their goal difference, which could end up being key.
Their two remaining fixtures are against Wolves and Bournemouth, both of whom are in the bottom eight.
Gracenote fact: Only Bournemouth (589) have conceded more goal attempts from their opponents than the 551 Everton have faced this season. Leicester City have conceded the third most and Nottingham Forest fourth.
Still to play: 20 May: Wolves (a); 28 May: Bournemouth (h)
Gracenote chance of relegation (72%)
Jesse Marsch was sacked as manager in February with Leeds on a seven-game winless run but, after an encouraging start, things got tough for new boss Javi Gracia and he was subsequently replaced by Sam Allardyce.
Leeds boosted their survival hopes with a spirited 2-2 draw at home to Newcastle at Elland Road on Saturday.
The Whites, who have won only twice away from home, travel to West Ham next and finish the season at home to Tottenham.
Winger Luis Sinisterra, whose goal against Leicester on 25 April was his third in five games, will miss the run-in with an ankle ligament injury and Junior Firpo will miss the trip to the London Stadium after receiving a red card in the draw with Newcastle.
Gracenote fact: Leeds have conceded a goal from 14% of the attempts they have faced this season, the worst in the Premier League. Brentford are now the best, allowing a goal from 8% of attempts faced.
Still to play: 21 May: West Ham (a); 28 May: Tottenham (h)
Gracenote chance of relegation (83%)
Leicester finished eighth last season and reached the Europa Conference League semi-finals, but they made an awful start to this campaign, picking up only one point in their first seven matches.
Manager Brendan Rodgers has been replaced by Dean Smith until the end of the season, but they have dropped into the relegation places.
Should Everton win at Wolves on Saturday and Dean Smith's side lose at Newcastle two days later, Leicester will be relegated.
Leicester have an array of attacking talent, but their problem has been conceding goals, having failed to keep a clean sheet in their past 20 matches.
Gracenote fact: With 10 goals and nine assists in this season's Premier League, Leicester's James Maddison is the only player from a relegation-threatened team with at least 14 goal contributions this term.
Still to play: 22 May: Newcastle (a); 28 May: West Ham (h)
Relegated
Southampton will be playing Championship football in 2023-24 after a 2-0 loss to Fulham on Saturday extended their winless streak to 11, including eight defeats, and confirmed their relegation.
They are another side on their third manager of the season after they sacked Ralph Hasenhuttl in November.
He was replaced by Nathan Jones, who only lasted eight Premier League matches and picked up one win before he was also dismissed.
Ruben Selles, assistant manager under Hasenhuttl, was next in line, but he has not been able to keep them up.
Gracenote fact: Southampton have kept only four clean sheets this season. The bottom four for clean sheets are all in the relegation battle as Saints are joined by Leeds United (five clean sheets), Leicester (six) and Forest (seven).
Still to play: 21 May: Brighton (a); 28 May: Liverpool (h)
| Chance of avoiding relegation this season with different points totals | |
|---|---|
| Points | Chance of safety |
| 37 or more | 100% |
| 36 | 99% |
| 35 | 95% |
| 34 | 68% |
| 32 | 17% |
| 32 | 5% |
| 31 or fewer | 0% |
| Gracenote, Euro Club Index | |
