The report stated that a resurgence of inflation in the United States, leading to renewed monetary tightening, or an unexpected easing of global geopolitical tensions could trigger a sudden fall in gold prices.

“Such a scenario would see Ghana’s external accounts face immediate headwinds, eroding international reserves and putting the cedi under greater pressure than currently assumed,” the report said. 

According to Fitch, this would push domestic inflation higher and could compel the Bank of Ghana to delay policy rate cuts or resume monetary tightening, thereby stifling economic activity. Beyond global markets, the report cited the worsening Islamist insurgency in the Sahel as another key risk with direct implications for Ghana’s economy and public spending. 

Fitch Solutions’ baseline projection was that Ghana would avoid large-scale violence, but it warned of the tangible danger of cross-border incursions from neighbouring Burkina Faso into northern Ghana. “An incursion would force the government to channel additional resources to the armed forces,” the rating agency said. 

It said that such emergency security spending would necessitate a difficult fiscal choice, either diverting funds from critical development projects or resorting to higher borrowing. “Higher borrowing would push up interest payments and crowd out productive capital spending,” the report noted.