Energy major Shell has announced that oil discovered offshore Namibia in Petroleum Exploration License (PEL) 39 cannot be currently confirmed for commercial development. As such, the company will write down $400 million, citing technical and geological difficulties encountered at the license.

While stakeholders deem this as a ‘blow to the country,’ the African Energy Chamber (AEC) – serving as the voice of the African energy sector – considers this merely a speed bump in Namibia’s oil development rather than a road block. Namibia still offers significant potential in the offshore Orange Basin and beyond, underscored by the positive exploration campaigns currently underway.

Shell made headlines in 2022 with the discovery of the Graff-1X exploration well in PEL 39. Since this find, the company has drilled an additional 8 wells, namely La Rona-1X, Jonker-1X, Graff-1A, Lesedi-1X, Cullinan-1X, Jonker-1A, Jonker-2A and Enigma-1X. Situated 250 km in the deep offshore, PEL 39 covers 12,000 km² - twice the size of Namibia’s capital city Windhoek. While subsurface complexities may exist, the current findings across the country are still promising. Moving further north, reservoir quality is expected to improve. A more in-depth analysis of the data by the exploration team could uncover opportunities for a gas strategy, potentially revealing new possibilities.

The Orange Basin, particularly the northern areas, still holds significant exploration prospects with potential for commercially viable discoveries. Leading international oil companies and independents continue to position the basin as one of the most sought-after exploration hotspots, with various exploration campaigns expected to yield strong results. Energy major TotalEnergies, for example, is expected to make a Final Investment Decision on its Orange Basin projects in 2025, following strong discoveries. The company currently operates two offshore exploration licenses in the Orange Basin – Block 2912 and 2913B – in PEL 56 and is currently engaged in a multi-well appraisal and exploration drilling campaign in Block 2913B, following the expansion of its interests in both blocks in 2024. First oil is targeted for 2029.

Other players, including Woodside Energy, Galp and Rhino Resources continue to explore Namibia's potential. Woodside Energy is expected to become the operator of PEL 87, following the approval of a permit and access to seismic data. Galp has seen significant success offshore Namibia with two discoveries made at the Mopane complex. The company is seeking a farm-in partner, with Brazil’s Petrobras exploring the opportunity. Meanwhile, Rhino Resources will begin drilling activities at PEL 85 in Q1, 2025, with plans to drill two high-impact wells.

The Orange Basin is believed to be rich in oil, with promising exploration opportunities in the north. Gas prospects are also prolific, underscoring the future potential and emerging growth opportunities present in the basin. However, Namibia’s oil potential doesn’t end with this basin. Beyond the Orange Basin, Namibia’s on- and offshore acreage offers high potential for impactful discoveries, particularly in basins such as Walvis, Kuene, Kavango and Namibe.

The Walvis Basin covers an area of 17,295 km² and serves as one of the most prolific gas provinces worldwide, and various companies are engaged in exploration activities. Eco Atlantic is assessing opportunities for development in PEL 97, PEL 98, PEL 99 and PEL 100, while Tower Resources is conducting an oil seep analysis and review of existing volumetric data on existing prospects and leads in Block 1910A, 1911 and 1912A. The company has identified the presence of multi-billion-barrels-of-oil-structures. Global Petroleum renewed its license for PEL 94 to September 2025, aiming to acquire, process and interpret 2,000 km of 3D seismic data. The company also plans to drill one well. Additionally, Chevron acquired an 80% operating interest in PEL 82 in the Walvis Basin in 2024.

Onshore, ReconAfrica is leading exploration in the Kavango Basin. The company confirmed the presence of an active petroleum system in November 2023 and seeks to obtain a 25-year production license following a discovery in PEL 73. The Kavango basin could likely hold as much as 30 billion barrels of oil, highlighting the potential across in-land basins.

“There is no need for alarm. Exploration in these blocks is ongoing, and discoveries may need to be tied in with other finds within the basin. It's worth noting that these blocks are massive, spanning up to 10,000 square kilometers - larger than some countries. Shell and other operators have only scratched the surface of the vast exploration opportunities available in Namibia. The country’s oil and gas story is still unfolding, and there's so much more to come. The government has been a strong supporter of investment into the oil sector and has created a stable climate that makes Namibia a go to destination for investors,” states NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the AEC.