Fitch Solutions is projecting that Ghana’s economy will remain largely insulated from the fallout of the US–Iran conflict due to elevated gold prices and robust export-related foreign exchange inflows.

In its latest analysis, the research firm asserts that, despite a 14% drop in global gold prices since the conflict began in late February 2026—driven by higher US yields, tighter monetary policy expectations, and a stronger dollar—the March 27 spot price of US$4,413 per ounce remains nearly three times the 2015–2024 average of US$1,603 per ounce.

Fitch’s Commodities team maintains its forecast that gold will average US$4,600 per ounce this year, the highest annual average on record and 33.7% above the 2025 average of US$3,442 per ounce.

“We believe that Ghana’s economy will remain relatively insulated from the fallout of the US–Iran conflict as it benefits from elevated gold prices. Robust export-related forex inflows and Ghana’s broadly neutral net oil trade position will limit pressure on the external account and the cedi, while prior fiscal consolidation and the new gold royalty regime will keep fiscal strains contained,” the firm said.

As Africa’s largest gold exporter, Ghana is poised to receive substantial dollar inflows over the coming months, underpinned by a projected 7.1% increase in gold output, particularly at the Bibiani, Chirano, and Namdini mines.

Fitch projects gold export receipts will rise 12.9% to US$23.7 billion, equivalent to 1.5% of GDP—well above the 2010–2024 average of 0.9%.