WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW FOR WEEK ENDING
MARCH 19, 2021?
MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q3, 2020 GDP Growth -1.1%
Average GDP Growth for 2020 0.2%
2020 Projected GDP Growth 0.9%
BoG Policy Rate 14.50%
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate 13.58%
Inflation for Feb, 2021 10.3%
End Period Inflation Target - 2021 8.0%
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Dec, 2020 11.7%
2020 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) 11.4%
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Dec, 2020 291.6
Debt to GDP Ratio – Dec, 2020 76.1%

STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exhange closed weaker for the week following declines in three counters. The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) lost 19.81 points (-0.89%) to close at 2,195.10 points reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 13.06%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE FI) also lost 7.02 points (-0.38%) to close at 1,849.04 points, reflecting YTD gain of 3.72%.

Market capitalization for the week was GH¢56,968.74, representing 0.29% decrease from GH¢57,133.07 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects YTD decline of 4.77%.
A total of 10,045,138 shares, valued at GH¢8,491,484.62 changed hands for the week, compared with 7,769,714 shares, valued at GH¢6,563,715 in the preceding week.
MTN Ghana dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 93.16% and 93.65% of total volume and value of shares traded respectively.
The market closed the week with 3 price advancers and 3 decliners.
Price Movers for the Week
Equity Opening Price Closing Price Gain/ Loss
Enterprise Group Ltd. 1.42 1.44 1.41%
Fan Milk Ltd. 1.08 1.09 0.93%
Total Petroleum Ghana Ltd. 3.1 3.11 0.32%
MTNGH 0.84 0.83 -1.19%
Cal Bank PLC 0.75 0.68 -9.33
Unilever Ghana Ltd. 7.47 6.73 -9.91

5 Best & Worst Performing Stocks
Best 5 Performing Stocks: YTD Return
MTN Ghana Ltd. 29.69%
Societe Generale Ghana PLC 15.63%
Standard Chartered Bank Gh. PLC 11.28%
GCB Bank Ltd. 11.11%
Total Petroleum Ghana Ltd. 9.89%

Worst 5 Performing Stocks:
Cal Bank PLC -1.45%
Access Bank Ghana PLC -2.05
Aluworks Limited -9.09%
Ecobank Transnational Inc. -12.50%
Unilever Ghana PLC -18.82%

CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi weakened against the USD at close of week. It traded at GH¢5.7275/$ on Friday, against GH¢5.7265/$ at week open, reflecting w/w depreciation and YTD appreciation of 0.02% and 0.57% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD appreciation of 3.86% a year ago.
The Cedi meanwhile strengthened against the GBP at week close. It traded at GH¢7.9358/£, compared with GH¢7.9579/£ at week open, reflecting w/w appreciation and YTD depreciation of 0.28% and 0.78% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD appreciation of 9.70% a year ago.
The Cedi also strengthened against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢6.8098/€, compared with GH¢6.8364/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.39% and 3.74% respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD appreciation of 4.90% a year ago.
The Cedi likewise strengthened against the CAD. It opened at GH¢4.5834/C$ but closed at GH¢4.5750/C$, reflecting w/w appreciation and YTD depreciation of 0.18% and 1.00% respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD appreciation of 11.37% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Currency Pair Year Open Week Open Week Close Change
% YTD
%
01-01-21 15-03-21 19-03-21
USD/GHS 5.7602 5.7265 5.7275 -0.02 0.57
GBP/GHS 7.8742 7.9579 7.9358 0.28 -0.78
EUR/GHS 7.0643 6.8364 6.8098 0.39 3.74
CAD/GHS 4.5292 4.5834 4.5750 0.18 -1.00
Source: Bank of Ghana

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢2,729.25 million for the week across the 91-Day and 182-Day Treasury Bills and the 3-Year Treasury Bond. This compared with GH¢1,484.25 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day and 182-Day Bills shed 10bps and 19bps each to settle at 12.90% p.a and 13.66% p.a respectively. The 3-Year Bond also shed 155bps to settle at 17.70%.

Security Year Open Previous Yield % Current Yield % WoW Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)
01-01-21 12-03-21 19-03-21
91 Day TB 14.10 13.00 12.90 -0.80 -8.51
182 Day TB 14.15 13.85 13.66 -1.38 -3.48
364 Day TB 16.96 16.67 16.67 0.00 -1.76
2-Yr FXR TN 18.50 17.60 17.60 0.00 -4.86
3-Yr Bond 19.25 19.25 17.70 -8.05 -8.05
5-Yr Bond 19.85 18.30 18.30 0.00 -7.81
6-Yr Bond 19.50 19.25 19.25 0.00 -8.33
7-Yr Bond 20.50 20.50 20.50 0.00 0.00
10-Yr Bond 19.80 19.80 19.80 0.00 0.00
15-Yr Bond 19.75 19.75 19.75 0.00 0.00
20-Yr Bond 20.20 20.20 20.20 0.00 0.00
Source: Bank of Ghana

COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices tumbled for the week on the back of increased U.S. stockpiles, rising Covid infections and fresh lockdowns across Europe. Brent futures traded at US$64.53 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w loss and YTD gain of 6.78% and 24.58% respectively.
Gold prices posted gains for the second straight week supported by concerns over expected rise in inflation in the U.S. Gold futures settled at US$1,741.70 per ounce on Friday, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 1.27% and 8.09% respectively.
Prices of Cocoa weakened for the second straight week. Cocoa futures settled at US$2,493.00 per tonne, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 3.15% and 4.23% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities Year Open Week Open Week Close Chg
% YTD
%
01-01-21 15-03-21 19-03-21
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl)
51.80 69.22 64.53
-6.78
24.58

Gold (USD/t oz.)
1,895.10 1,719.80 1,741.70
1.27
-8.09

Cocoa (USD/MT)
2,603.00 2,574.00 2,493.00
-3.15
-4.23
Source: www.investing.com

BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Primary Surplus (Deficit): A country’s primary surplus (deficit) refers to the component of the fiscal surplus (deficit) that is comprised of current government spending less current income from taxes, and excludes interest paid on government debt. If a country has larger levels of income relative to current spending, it is said to have a primary surplus; if a country has larger levels of current spending relative to income, it is said to have a primary deficit.
Source: https://www.merkfunds.com/currency-asset-class/glossary/primary-surplus.html

ABOUT CIDAN
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Disclaimer
The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.