Supported by optimism of an improved production outlook, prices for the nearby cocoa contract i.e., DEC-25 fluctuated between US$5,478 per tonne and US$6,320 per tonne in London. In New York, they ranged between US$5,809 per tonne and 

FIGURE 1.
Prices of the DEC-25, MAR-26 AND MAY-26 cocoa futures contracts on the London (ICE Futures Europe) and New York (ICE Futures U.S.) markets (at London close) in October 2025

US$ PER TONNE
FIGURE 2.
Prices of the DEC-24, MAR-25 AND MAY-25 cocoa futures contracts on the London (ICE Futures Europe) and New York (ICE Futures U.S.) markets (at London close) in October 2024
US$ PER TONNE

US$6,686 per tonne. As the month progressed, bearish sentiment gained traction. From the beginning to the end of the month, prices fell by 8% in both London and New York. In London, they moved from US$6,320 per tonne to US$5,808 per tonne

US$6,686 per tonne. As the month progressed, bearish sentiment gained traction. From the beginning to the end of the month, prices fell by 8% in both London and New York. In London, they moved from US$6,320 per tonne to US$5,808 per tonne and in New York from US$6,686 per tonne to US$6,133 per tonne (Figure 1). This decline contrasts sharply with October 2024 when supply tightness drove prices

higher. During that period, the DEC-24 contract increased by 11% from US$6,776 per tonne to US$7,521 per tonne in London, and by 4% from US$7,061 per tonne to US$7,371 per tonne in New York (Figure 2). The difference between these two periods underscores how market fundamentals, particularly supply expectations, can alter price movements.

Despite optimism for a production rebound, cocoa arrivals in Côte d’Ivoire since the start of the season have been sluggish. As at 10 November 2025, cumulative port arrivals were estimated at 411,000 tonnes, representing a 9.7% decline year-on-year. This slowdown may not solely be indicative of a poor harvest. Rather, it may reflect stock building by major processors in the country. Following a disappointing mid-crop characterized by low bean quality and high rejection rates, processors this time around may be prioritizing the accumulation of quality beans. Consequently, fewer beans are likely being transported to ports and this may be creating a perception of weak arrivals even as inventories are replenished within the country.

The weakness in cocoa demand may have also limited price momentum. As shown in Figure 3, Q3.2025 grindings data reported by the major regional associations in October 2025 revealed Asia as showing the steepest decline, while negative and positive grindings were noted for Europe and North America, respectively, due to reporting changes. The European Cocoa Association posted a drop of 4.8% year-on-

year to 337,353 tonnes. Asia plunged by 17.1% year-on-year to 183,413 tonnes. This figure is reported as the lowest third quarter data in nine years. The National Confectioners Association reported a 3.2% year-on-year increase to 112,784 tonnes, but this was partly due to two extra plants reporting and not necessarily a stronger underlying demand.
The combined effect of sluggish arrivals and weak demand created a bearish tone for cocoa prices in October 2025. However, as the season progresses, caution is warranted as seasonal uncertainties, regulatory developments (EUDR) and potential weather disruptions (harmattan winds) could alter the supply-demand balance and consequently prices.