Global ratings agency S&P Global Ratings has upgraded Ghana’s long- and short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to ‘B-/B’ from ‘CCC+/C’, citing improvements in the country’s fiscal discipline, external balances, and overall economic performance. The outlook on the rating is stable.

S&P also raised Ghana’s transfer and convertibility assessment to ‘B-’ from ‘CCC+’, reflecting greater confidence in the country’s ability to manage foreign exchange flows and external obligations.

Fiscal and external improvements

The upgrade, according to S&P, reflects Ghana’s strengthening balance of payments and gradual fiscal recovery, supported by resilient economic growth and favourable prices for gold and cocoa, which together account for more than 60% of Ghana’s exports.

The ratings agency projects Ghana’s gross international reserves to rise to US$10.4 billion (9% of GDP) by the end of 2025, up from US$6.8 billion a year earlier, while inflation—once above 20%—is expected to remain below 10% from 2026 onward. The cedi has appreciated by about 30% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of 2025.

S&P noted that Ghana’s new administration, elected in December 2024, has introduced fiscal rules requiring a 1.5% primary surplus annually and a debt reduction target to 45% of GDP by 2034. These measures, alongside tighter procurement oversight and expenditure controls, aim to prevent the fiscal slippages that contributed to past crises.

Progress in debt restructuring

The report acknowledged Ghana’s substantial progress in restructuring its sovereign debt following the 2022 default. The government has completed local currency debt exchanges and a US$13.1 billion Eurobond restructuring in 2024. Talks are ongoing to finalize the restructuring of the remaining US$5 billion owed to some official and commercial creditors.

However, S&P warned that disagreements between Ghana and some lenders, including the African Export-Import Bank and the Eastern and Southern African Trade and Development Bank, could delay the full completion of the restructuring process.

Economic outlook and reform sustainability

S&P raised its 2025 growth forecast for Ghana to 6.0%, up from 4.5% earlier, citing robust performance across sectors and improved business confidence. The current account surplus is expected to reach 4.6% of GDP this year—its highest on record—before moderating in the medium term as gold and cocoa prices normalize.

Despite the upgrade, S&P cautioned that Ghana’s ratings remain constrained by high debt-service costs, weak institutional frameworks, and exposure to commodity price and weather shocks. It also noted that fiscal reforms have yet to be tested through a full economic and electoral cycle, a period when fiscal discipline in Ghana has historically weakened.

Stable outlook

The stable outlook, S&P said, reflects a balance between the potential for stronger fiscal and external performance and the risks associated with reform implementation and debt service pressures.

S&P added that it could raise the rating further if Ghana sustains low fiscal deficits, builds foreign reserves, and strengthens access to international capital markets.

Conversely, the rating could be lowered if fiscal reforms stall, debt-service costs rise, or favourable commodity prices decline sharply.

Context

Ghana, which defaulted on its debt in December 2022, has since been implementing a US$3 billion IMF Extended Credit Facility programme, set to end in May 2026. The programme underpins fiscal reforms and supports economic stabilization efforts after years of macroeconomic volatility.