As the Bank of Ghana (BoG) convenes an emergency session of its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) today, Thursday, July 17, 2025, Fitch Solutions expects the central bank to maintain its benchmark policy rate at 28%, despite growing signs of easing inflation and mounting pressure for monetary policy loosening.

According to Fitch’s research division—a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings—BoG officials are likely to wait for firmer evidence of sustained disinflation before initiating a rate-cutting cycle.

The central bank surprised markets in March with a 100-basis-point rate hike, citing persistent inflationary pressures.

However, Fitch now projects that BoG could begin lowering rates as early as September, provided macroeconomic indicators continue to improve.

Should the MPC opt to start easing in July, Fitch estimates the policy rate could fall to between 24% and 25% by year-end—below its current projection of 26%.

Headline inflation fell sharply to 13.7% in June, significantly narrowing the gap between inflation and the policy rate. Ghana now holds one of the highest real interest rates among African frontier markets, as the central bank maintains a tight monetary stance.

The ongoing disinflation trend has been bolstered by a relatively stable Ghanaian Cedi and a resilient external sector.

Since May, the Cedi has remained steady, supported by a build-up in international reserves, which climbed to $7.9 billion in April—equivalent to nearly four months of import cover.

This reserve growth has been largely driven by surging gold export revenues and high global gold prices, fuelled by geopolitical uncertainty and strong demand for the metal from central banks globally.