MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q3, 2023 Real GDP Growth |
2.0% |
Average Real GDP Growth for 2023 |
2.8% |
2024 Projected Real GDP Growth |
2.8% |
BoG Policy Rate |
29.0% |
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate |
28.85% |
Inflation for January, 2024 |
23.5% |
End Period Inflation Target – 2024 |
15.0% |
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Sep, 2023 |
2.5% |
2024 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) |
3.0% |
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Sep, 2023 |
567.3 |
Debt to GDP Ratio – Sep, 2023 |
66.4% |
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange closed lower for the week on the back of price decrease by 1 counter. The decrease was hugely offset by the gains of the 4 week-end advancers as indicated in the price movers table below The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) lost 0.39 points (-0.01%) for the week to close at 3,185.18 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 1.76%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FI) also lost 2.48 points (-0.13%) for the week to close at 1,922.90 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 1.12%.
Market capitalization decreased by 0.20% to close the week at GH¢74,606.11 million, from GH¢74,758.17 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects a YTD gain of 0.96%.
The week recorded a total of 733,867 shares valued at GH¢871,017.85 changing hands, compared with 7,914,042 shares, valued at GH¢10,114,734.63 in the preceding week.
MTNGH dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 32.43% and 38.26% of shares traded respectively.
The market ended the week with 4 growers and 1 decliner as indicated in the table below.
Price Movers for the Week |
|||
Equity |
Opening Price |
Closing Price |
Gain/Loss (%) |
DASPHARMA |
0.33 |
0.38 |
?15.15% |
ABG |
3.70 |
4.05 |
?9.46% |
GLD |
239.70 |
245.80 |
?2.54% |
FML |
3.30 |
3.35 |
?1.52% |
ETI |
0.16 |
0.15 |
?6.25% |
Source: Ghana Stock Exchange
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi continued its downward trend against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢12.3877/$, compared with GH¢12.2064/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.46% and 4.10% respectively. This compares with a loss of 22.13% a year ago.
The Cedi also declined against the GBP for the week. It traded at GH¢15.7058/£, compared with GH¢15.3697/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 2.14% and 3.64% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 21.71% a year ago.
The Cedi retreated against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢13.4031/€, compared with GH¢13.1500/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.89% and 2.06% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 21.33% a year ago.
The Cedi also depreciated against the Canadian Dollar at week end. It opened at GH¢9.0586/C$ but closed at GH¢9.1745/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 1.26% and 1.78% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 21.68% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates |
|||||
Currency Pair |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Change% |
YTD % |
|
01-01-24 |
19-02-24 |
23-02-24 |
|
|
USD/GHS |
11.8800 |
12.2064 |
12.3877 |
?1.46 |
?4.10 |
GBP/GHS |
15.1334 |
15.3697 |
15.7058 |
?2.14 |
?3.64 |
EUR/GHS |
13.1264 |
13.1500 |
13.4031 |
?1.89 |
?2.06 |
CAD/GHS |
9.0112 |
9.0586 |
9.1745 |
?1.26 |
?1.78 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢6,970.08 million for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills. This compared with GH¢5,671.81 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day Bill settled at 27.28% p.a. from 27.89% p.a. last week whilst the 182-Day Bill settled at 29.75% p.a. from 30.39% p.a. last week. The 364-Day Bill settled at 30.30% p.a. from 30.90% p.a. last week.
The tables below highlight primary market activity at close of the week.
Security |
Year Open |
Previous Yield % |
Current Yield % |
WoW Chg (%) |
YTD Chg (%) |
|
01-01-24 |
20-02-24 |
23-02-24 |
|
|
91 Day TB |
29.24 |
27.89 |
27.28 |
?2.19 |
?6.70 |
182 Day TB |
31.88 |
30.39 |
29.75 |
?2.13 |
?6.69 |
364 Day TB |
32.49 |
30.90 |
30.30 |
?1.94 |
?6.73 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
The Ghana Market Summary |
|||
|
Current |
Previous |
Change |
Bid (GH¢' M) |
6,970.08 |
5,671.81 |
?22.89% |
Issuance (GH¢' M) |
6,970.08 |
5,671.81 |
?22.89% |
Target (GH¢' M) |
6,268 |
4,865 |
?28.84% |
Maturity (GH¢' M) |
3,979.57 |
4,147.14 |
?4.04% |
Target coverage ratio |
1.11 |
1.17 |
na |
Maturity coverage ratio |
1.75 |
1.37 |
na |
Bid / Cover ratio |
1.00 |
1.00 |
na |
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices fell nearly 3% after a U.S. central bank policymaker indicated interest rate cuts could be delayed by at least two more months. Brent futures traded at US$81.62 a barrel, compared to US$83.47 at week open, reflecting w/w loss and YTD appreciation of 2.22% and 5.94% respectively.
Gold prices rose in Asian trade, extending a recent rebound as the dollar retreated in anticipation of more cues on U.S. interest rates. Gold settled at US$2,049.40, from US$2,024.10 last week, reflecting w/w gain and YTD depreciation of 1.25% and 1.08% respectively.
The price of Cocoa went up for the week. Cocoa traded at US$6,562.00 per tonne on Friday, from US$5,706.00 last week, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 15.00% and 56.39% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Chg% |
YTD % |
|
01-01-24 |
19-02-24 |
23-02-24 |
|
|
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) |
77.04 |
83.47 |
81.62 |
?2.22 |
?5.94 |
Gold (USD/t oz.) |
2,071.80 |
2,024.10 |
2,049.40 |
?1.25 |
?1.08 |
Cocoa (USD/MT) |
4,196.00 |
5,706.00 |
6,562.00 |
?15.00 |
?56.39 |
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Terminal Value (TV): Terminal value (TV) is the value of an asset, business, or project beyond the forecasted period when future cash flows can be estimated. Terminal value assumes a business will grow at a set growth rate forever after the forecast period.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/terminalvalue.asp
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
RESEARCH TEAM
Name: Ernest Tannor
Email: etannor@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 881 8957
Name: Moses Nana Osei-Yeboah
Email: moyeboah@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 24 499 0069
Name: Julian Sapara-Grant
Email: jsgrant@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 821 2079
CORPORATE INFORMATION
CIDAN Investments Limited
CIDAN House
House No. 261
Haatso, North Legon – Accra
Tel: +233 (0) 27 690 0011/ 55 989 9935
Fax : +233 (0)30 254 4351
Email : info@cidaninvestments.com
Website : www.cidaninvestments.com
Disclaimer: The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.