MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q3, 2021 GDP Growth |
6.6% |
Average GDP Growth for 2021 |
5.3% |
2021 Projected GDP Growth |
5.0% |
BoG Policy Rate |
14.50% |
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate |
12.92% |
Inflation for December, 2021 |
12.60% |
End Period Inflation Target – 2021 |
8.0% |
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Dec, 2021 |
9.7% |
2021 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) |
9.5% |
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Nov, 2021 |
344.5 |
Debt to GDP Ratio – Nov, 2021 |
78.4% |
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange dipped for the week on the back of movements by 3 counters. The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) retreated by 22.72 points (-0.81%) to close at 2,766.80 points, reflecting year-to-date (YTD) loss of 0.81%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE FI) also lost 22.10 points (-1.03%) to close at 2,131.93 points, reflecting year-to-date (YTD) loss of 0.93%.
Market capitalization declined 0.63% to close the week at GH¢64,097.80 million, from GH¢64,501.06 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects YTD decrease of 0.62%.
Trading activity witnessed a total of 5,497,427 shares valued at GH¢5,927,272.53 changing hands for the week compared with 2,490,883 shares, valued at GH¢3,422,444.26 in the preceding week.
MTN dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 72.34% and 74.74% respectively of total value and volume of shares traded.
The market closed the week with no price gainers and 3 price decliners as indicated on the table below.
Price Movers for the Week |
|||
Equity |
Opening Price |
Closing Price |
Gain/Loss (%) |
Ecobank Transnational Inc. |
0.14 |
0.13 |
?7.14% |
Access Bank Ghana PLC |
3.15 |
2.85 |
?9.52% |
Fan Milk Ltd. |
3.95 |
3 |
?24.05% |
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi recorded marginal depreciation against the USD for the second consecutive week. It traded at GH¢6.0226/$ on Friday, compared to GH¢6.0099/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.21% and 0.27% respectively. This compares with YTD depreciation of 0.00% a year ago.
The Cedi closed stronger against the GBP for the week as it traded at GH¢8.0715/£, compared with GH¢8.1482/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.95% and 0.69% respectively. This compares with YTD depreciation of 0.32% a year ago.
The Cedi also gained against the Euro for the week as it traded at GH¢6.7109/€, compared with GH¢6.8189/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 1.61% and 1.75% respectively. This compares with YTD appreciation of 1.02% a year ago.
The Cedi again appreciated for the week against the Canadian Dollar. It opened at GH¢4.7922/C$ but closed at GH¢4.7925/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 1.59% and 0.51% respectively. This compares with YTD appreciation of 0.24% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates |
|||||
Currency Pair |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
W/W Change% |
YTD % |
|
01/01/22 |
24/01/22 |
28/01/22 |
|
|
USD/GHS |
6.0061 |
6.0099 |
6.0226 |
?0.21 |
?0.27 |
GBP/GHS |
8.1272 |
8.1482 |
8.0715 |
?0.95 |
?0.69 |
EUR/GHS |
6.8281 |
6.8189 |
6.7109 |
?1.61 |
?1.75 |
CAD/GHS |
4.7416 |
4.7925 |
4.7177 |
?1.59 |
?0.51 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢1,218.28 million for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury bills, compared to GH¢2,465.06 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day bill gained 8bps to settle at 12.63% p.a whilst the 182-Day bill gained 2bps to settle at 13.23% p.a. The 364-Day bill also gained 4bps to settle at 16.74% p.a.
The table and graph below highlight primary market yields at close of the week.
Security |
Year Open |
Previous Yield % |
Current Yield % |
WoW Chg (%) |
YTD Chg (%) |
|
01/01/22 |
24/01/22 |
28/01/22 |
|
|
91 Day TB |
12.53 |
12.55 |
12.63 |
?0.70 |
?0.86 |
182 Day TB |
13.21 |
13.21 |
13.23 |
?0.11 |
?0.12 |
364 Day TB |
16.64 |
16.70 |
16.74 |
?0.25 |
?0.61 |
2-Yr FXR TN |
19.75 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
3-Yr Bond |
20.50 |
20.50 |
20.50 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
5-Yr Bond |
21.00 |
21.00 |
21.00 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
6-Yr Bond |
18.80 |
21.75 |
21.75 |
0.00 |
15.69 |
7-Yr Bond |
18.10 |
18.10 |
18.10 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
10-Yr Bond |
19.75 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
15-Yr Bond |
19.75 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
20-Yr Bond |
20.20 |
20.20 |
20.20 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Crude Oil prices rose to a more than seven-year peak on Friday and recorded a sixth straight weekly gain as geopolitical turmoil worsened concerns over tight energy supply. The latest rise was fueled again by the upcoming meeting of oil producers alliance OPEC+. Brent futures traded at US$90.03 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w and YTD gains of 2.43% and 15.75%.
Gold extended declines on Friday and was set for its worst week since late November as growing expectations for U.S. interest rate hikes pushed the dollar to a multi-month high, making bullion less attractive for overseas buyers. Gold settled at US$1,784.90 from US$1,831.80 last week, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 2.56% and 2.39% respectively.
Prices of Cocoa dipped for the week. The commodity traded at US$2,494.00 per tonne on Friday, from US$2,576.00 last week, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 3.18% and 1.03% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Chg % |
YTD % |
|
01/01/22 |
24/01/22 |
28/01/22 |
|
|
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) |
77.78 |
87.89 |
90.03 |
?2.43 |
?15.75 |
Gold (USD/t oz.) |
1,828.60 |
1,831.80 |
1,784.90 |
?2.56 |
?2.39 |
Cocoa (USD/MT) |
2,520.00 |
2,576.00 |
2,494.00 |
?3.18 |
?1.03 |
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Risk Premium: A risk premium is the investment return an asset is expected to yield in excess of the risk-free rate of return. An asset's risk premium is a form of compensation for investors. It represents payment to investors for tolerating the extra risk in a given investment over that of a risk-free asset.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/riskpremium.asp
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
website: www.cidaninvestments.com
DisclaimerThe contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.