Ethiopia's withdrawal, resignation of President Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed and increased political dialogue among warring factions are a clear signal that the bloodshed that has wrecked Somalia for decades is coming to an end, the Uganda Government said on Thursday.
Crispus Kiyonga, Minister of Defence, flanked by General Aronda Nyakairima, Chief of Defence Forces of Uganda People's Defence Force told a Defence Committee of Parliament in Kampala that since these events occurred, the level of violence in the Horn of African country has gone down.
Somali leaders are gathering in Djibouti to increase the number of members of Parliament from 270 to 550 who will then elect a new president after President Yusuf resigned following intense internal and external pressures.
Religious and traditional leaders who have themselves been divided are now uniting and have called against further bloodshed.

ETHIOPIAN TROOPS, YUSUF STUMBLING BLOCKS

During his various regional trips, President Yusuf was always under pressure to ensure that reconciliation among the Somalis is achieved, which he failed to do. In fact some analysts always saw him as a stumbling block to the whole peace process.

"In closed door meetings with President Yoweri Museveni (Ugandan President), the point of reconciliation was made to Yusuf but he did not listen," Kiyonga said.
Kiyonga's view is also shared by General Nyakairima who argues that actually it was the war lords who met in Nairobi, Kenya and chose him as their leader but after realizing he was incapable they pushed him out.
"Yusuf increasingly became a minority. He did his best but that was not enough," he said.
Some analysts argue that President Yusuf's presence in Somalia may cause more mayhem since his clan mates may see his forced resignation as a sign of being marginalized by the other clans.
Defence experts however say that he has not got the capacity to cause havoc; that he has even asked to be relocated to either the Middle East, Ethiopia or Uganda.
As Ethiopian troops pulled out and took position at their border with Somalia they armed a militia group.
According to Hussein Kyanjo, a political analyst in Kampala, this group, consisting of mainly youths, is likely to cause havoc.
But according to Nyakairima, the Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) and the opposition Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia (ARS) were informed by the Ethiopians about this group.
Kiyonga argues that since Ethiopian troops left and Yusuf resigned, there has been a reduction in violence and it is likely to go down further if the different warring parties continue to reconcile.
According to the Ugandan government most of the businessmen who have been bankrolling the youths to cause havoc have resorted to dialogue.

UGANDA DECIDES TO STAY

As Ethiopia started pulling out, Uganda was at a cross road. It considered three critical options which included pulling out, stay in the current situation or stay and demand for more reinforcement.
Pulling out meant leaving Somalia in free fall which would mean that the entire Eastern Africa coast would be insecure and therefore have an economic impact on East African countries. Staying in the current situation was also not an option.
After extensive consultation with regional bodies and the UN, President Museveni decided to go for the last option, stay but be reinforced.
According to Kiyonga, in a meeting between President Museveni and Ban Ki Moon, UN Secretary General, President Museveni insisted that the peace keeping force in Somalia must be reinforced and equipped; it must be at the level of a UN peacekeeping force.
Uganda has also demanded for a 14-million dollar compensation from the African Union Mission in Somalia for using its military hardware.
Kiyonga said while the compensation and reinforcement is being worked out, the country is to deploy another battalion of about 700 soldiers in the next two to three weeks.
Burundi is also sending a battalion to cover the vacuum created by Ethiopia's withdrawal. Nigeria has also recommitted itself to send troops.
Kiyonga said that the TFG and the ARS have agreed to raise another 10,000 troops internally, to pacify the war-torn country.
A total of 8,000 African Union peacekeepers are required in Somalia but only 3,000 troops from Uganda and Burundi have been deployed.
Nyakairima argues that while more peace keepers are needed, what will solve the Somali question will be continued dialogue between the warring factions. He says that all indications show that this is the path the political leaders are taking.