A political analyst and lecturer at the University of Cape Coast, Dr Jonathan Asante Otchere, has cast doubt on the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) ability to reclaim the Dome-Kwabenya parliamentary seat without the backing of Adwoa Safo and the influential Kristo Asafo Church.

“I do not foresee the NPP winning back Dome-Kwabenya without the input and support of Kristo Asafo,” Dr Otchere stated, adding that Safo’s political clout, emotional appeal, and financial leverage make her a formidable force within the party.

Speaking on Ghana Tonight on April 7, Dr Otchere described the NPP’s handling of its ongoing disciplinary standoff with Adwoa Safo as both politically strategic and a reflection of internal hesitation.

His comments come in the wake of a postponed disciplinary hearing involving the MP, which has triggered public debate over the party’s internal dynamics.

Strategic retreat or internal confusion?

Dr Otchere suggested that the party’s decision to backtrack on Adwoa Safo’s disciplinary hearing at the last minute was a calculated move to avoid political backlash.

“It is a mixture of cowardice and strategy… The party realised the decision to summon her was unpopular. Her emotional narrative had already won the sympathy of a section of the public and party base. Proceeding would have bled the party further,” he stated.

He said the party’s failure to communicate clearly and consistently regarding the invitation to the disciplinary hearing raised questions. While the NPP claims to have notified Adwoa Safo through her aide, she insists no such communication was received.

“In this digital age, such notices can easily be delivered electronically. There is no evidence she was properly served. Either she orchestrated a public stunt or the party simply reacted without adequate consultation,” Dr Otchere said.

He also expressed scepticism about the party’s claim of having sent a letter through her aide, describing it as potentially false rather than a simple miscommunication.

A Pandora’s box averted?

The UCC lecturer warned that proceeding with the disciplinary hearing could have triggered further internal unrest.

“Had she appeared before the committee, a Pandora’s box would have opened,” he remarked. “She has support within the party, and her public comments have touched on sensitive issues like the school feeding programme and the e-levy. These are core issues that strike at the heart of the party’s credibility.”

Dr Otchere noted that some party members who accompanied Adwoa Safo to the party headquarters on the day of the postponed hearing were a visible sign of her continued influence.

Politics of sentiment and resources

He underscored the evolving nature of modern politics, where sentiment and resources often outweigh ideology.

“She comes with leverage—emotional and financial. Today’s politics is driven more by resources than just good ideas. And she has both,” he noted.

Dr Otchere urged party executives to adopt a more empathetic and consultative approach moving forward, suggesting that a simple phone call from party leadership acknowledging her concerns could have de-escalated the situation.

“This was a healing process for her. Party leaders could have engaged her privately to tone down her rhetoric rather than escalating matters publicly,” he advised.

“Tsunami” within the party?

Beyond Dome-Kwabenya, Dr Otchere warned that broader discontent is simmering within the NPP, particularly among grassroots supporters who feel sidelined.

“There are thousands within the NPP who felt they were in government, but in reality, were in opposition,” he said. “People have stories to tell. And it is just a matter of time before frustrations are vented—especially against the former President, Nana Akufo-Addo.”

He added that should President John Mahama investigate and expose past corruption scandals, the former President’s approval ratings could plummet further.

“You’ll begin to understand why President Akufo-Addo’s approval rating was projected to be around 22% by November 2024. People wouldn’t want to associate with that political baggage. It would have been a bad bargain.”

Dr Otchere predicted a possible political upheaval within the NPP, especially when internal elections are held.

“I see a tsunami coming,” he cautioned. “Most of the current executives are likely to be swept away unless they had genuinely stood for the party during difficult times, rather than merely aligning themselves with the former President and Vice President.”

He stressed that the NPP must now make a crucial choice: either publicly distance itself from the Adwoa Safo issue or remain silent and let it fade with time.

“It’s either the party pretends the issue never happened or allows time to kill the story. Because the more they drag it, the more it backfires,” he said.