A study has revealed high interest in the 2024 general election, with 87 per cent expected turnout, surpassing the 78.89 per cent in the 2020 polls.

With the two major political parties – the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC) – crisscrossing the country and battling for votes, such high turnout is expected to have considerable impact on the fortunes of the two parties, especially if they are able to galvanise their base and also attract floating voters.

The study further revealed that both the NPP and the NDC were at par in the presidential race, with 46.3 per cent of the voters’ surveyed saying they would vote for the NPP, with the same percentage sticking with the NDC.

Former President John Dramani Mahama, the flag bearer of the NDC, was seen as “currently more visible in the constituencies, but the study identified that NPP’s Vice-President Mahamudu Bawumia is popular among the Christian voter population, while the NDC’s Mahama is popular among Muslim voters, including the Zongos.

Context

The study, a copy of which the  Daily Graphic has sighted, was conducted by a team of researchers commissioned from the University of Ghana led by their former colleague, Dr Isaac Owusu. It sampled the views of 28,935 registered voters from all the 276 constituencies, between August 1 to August 23, this year.

However, the findings showed that 4.4 per cent of the electorate were likely to vote for other political parties and independent candidates, a situation that could push the elections to a run-off, the study found out.

“A considerable three per cent are yet to decide their preference. The smaller parties and independent candidates shared 4.4 per cent of the votes. This means the smaller parties have the capacity to push the elections to a run-off. Neither the NDC nor NPP can win the entire undecided component of electorate,” the study pointed out.

Again, the study concluded that Nana Kwame Bediako, the leader of the New Force Movement, is expected to perform considerably well due to his popularity among the youthful voters, while the flag bearer of the Movement for Change, Alan Kyeremateng, and the other political parties were also working hard to become part of the voting decision of the electorate.

Popularity

Other findings of the study showed that the although 44 per cent of the respondents liked the NPP government, with 43 per cent saying the NPP had the capacity to deliver on its campaign promises, 47 per cent said the NPP government had failed to implement most of its policies.

With the NDC, 39 per cent of the respondents said the party had done well in opposition since 2021, rating its performance as “good”, with 21 per cent saying it was “very good”, 10 per cent rating the party as “excellent’, 20 per cent scoring as “bad” and 10 per cent saying the party was “very bad” in opposition.

Running mate

With regard to value the running mates of the two major political parties bring to the table, the survey showed that the electorate were not really influenced in the voting decisions based on the running mates.

With regard to the running mate of the NDC, Prof. Naana Jane Opoku Agyemang, 75 per cent of the respondents said her choice as running would not affect their voting decisions, while 79 per cent of the respondents said the choice of Dr Mathew Opoku Prempeh would not affect how they would vote.

“Starting with Prof. Naana Jane Opoku Agyemang, majority (75 per cent) of the respondents indicated that her choice as a running mate for the NDC would not affect their voting decision. However, 16 per cent is ready to vote for the NDC because of her – with a considerable proportion of eight per cent ready to vote against the NDC because of her,” the study posted.

“In the case of Dr Mathew Opoku Prempeh, majority (79 per cent) of respondents also indicated that his choice as a running mate for the NPP would not affect their voting decision. A considerable proportion of nine per cent is, however, ready to vote against the NPP because of him,” the survey concluded.