The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned that a third wave of Covid-19 cases in Africa could get worse as new and faster spreading variants drive infections.

The highly transmissible Delta variant is spreading to more and more countries.

New weekly cases have now overtaken the weekly numbers recorded at the height of the second wave in January this year.

Less than 2% of the continent has been fully vaccinated.
Where are cases and deaths rising?

New cases have been increasing for seven weeks running and rose by an average of 28% week-on-week over the past month, according to the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

The WHO says more than 251,000 new cases were recorded in the week ending 4 July, making it the "worst pandemic week ever".

"The worst is yet to come as the fast-moving third wave continues to gain speed and new ground," says Matshidiso Moeti, WHO regional director for Africa.
Chart showing rising cases in Africa over time

There are 23 countries on the continent that have so far experienced a third wave of infections, with Senegal and Malawi the latest two to be affected.

Of those, 13 are experiencing a more severe wave than before, the Africa CDC says, with Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Namibia, Zambia, Rwanda and Tunisia the worst hit.

"This is driven by a mix of public fatigue, social mixing, ineffective use of public health and social measures, and vaccine inequity, and the spread of new variants," according to WHO director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.

South Africa is also reporting a sustained increase in cases, with Gauteng province, where Johannesburg is located, leading with infections.

The number of Covid-related deaths increased by 28% in the past month, according to Africa CDC data.

There were significant increases in South Africa (39%), DR Congo (24%) and Kenya (23%).

The continent's average death rate has been at 2.6% for some months now, above the global average of 2.2%.

The global fatality rate has fallen since the start of the pandemic, which in itself would put more African countries above the global average.

Rates are also affected by how much testing is done - a country with low levels of testing will show a higher death rate because many non-fatal Covid cases are not detected.

More importantly, data for deaths should be treated with caution, given the wide variations in how countries record them, and how effective their death registration systems are.

Is the Delta variant to blame?

The WHO believes the spread of the Delta variant (which is more transmissible) has contributed to an increase in both cases and deaths across the continent.

It has been reported in 17 countries so far, and 10 out of the 16 countries currently facing a resurgence have confirmed its presence.

It has been found in most of the samples that were sequenced in some countries experiencing a resurgence - for example DR Congo and in Uganda, where 66% of the cases of severe illness in people younger than 45 years have been attributed to it.

There is also concern that new variants can't easily be tracked because the testing required to identify them isn't widely available.

Another variant of the virus which emerged in South Africa last year, now named Beta, led to high case numbers across southern Africa.

It has been detected in 29 countries, while 32 countries have also reported the presence of a Covid-19 variant first identified in the UK, now named Alpha.

This is more widespread in countries in north, west and central Africa.

As case numbers rise again, several countries - like Tunisia, Rwanda and Uganda - have reintroduced restrictions on public gatherings and non-essential travel.
What is happening with vaccinations?

So far, Africa has lagged behind the rest of the world in Covid-19 vaccines, accounting for just 1.6% of doses administered globally.

The Seychelles has the highest rate of vaccination, having fully vaccinated 69% of its population. Morocco has a quarter of its population fully vaccinated.

Most countries in Africa are part of the international Covax vaccine-sharing scheme but so far, only 19 countries have used more than 80% of Covax-supplied doses.

And in the most populous countries on the continent, vaccination rates are still very low.

In Nigeria, only 1.9 doses of vaccines have been administered per 100 people, in Ethiopia it's 1.8 and in Kenya 2.6 doses.

It's slightly higher in Egypt at 4.5 doses, and in South Africa, it is 5.6.