An intensifying El Niño weather pattern threatens to bring severe flooding, disease outbreaks, heatwaves and drought to communities across East Africa and Asia in the coming weeks, the International Rescue Committee warned today, with families in Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan among the most impacted.

In Somalia, June data pointed to a 60% chance of above-average rainfall across the south and southwest, and forecasters are watching a July 15 update that will determine funding and planning for anticipatory action. Overlapping crises of drought and displacement have left 4.8 million people in Somalia in need of urgent aid, a number expected to climb as El Niño flooding compounds the drought in coming months. A flood in 2023 destroyed almost 13,000 tons of crops and damaged entire towns and cities, and experts warn that a similar storm would do more damage this time, as communities already worn down by drought and reduced humanitarian funding have fewer resources and coping mechanisms to rely upon. 

Heavy rain in the Ethiopian highlands combined with local Deyr season rains could send river levels rising quickly along Somalia's two main waterways, contaminating water sources and raising the risk of cholera and acute watery diarrhea. The anticipated impacts are regional as Kenya faces an 80–82% chance of El Niño persisting through 2026, with dry conditions this summer giving way to a high risk of flooding and landslides later in the year, prompting the government to activate its national response framework. Uganda anticipates a similar shift from drier months to a flood-prone final quarter, raising fears of displacement and disease after more than 413,000 people were affected in the last El Niño cycle. 

"We're watching several emergencies converge at once, and the places least equipped to absorb another shock are the ones in the crosshairs," said Bob Kitchen, IRC Vice President for Emergencies. "Acting now, before the rain falls, is far cheaper and far more humane than responding after people have lost everything."

The same El Niño pattern is expected to hit Asia on a different front, pushing seasonal rainfall below normal and temperatures higher across Pakistan even as northern mountain areas face sudden glacier-melt floods. Meanwhile, Bangladesh's monsoon season has already turned deadly this year, and landslides and flooding have killed at least 15 Rohingya refugees living in the Cox's Bazar camps and displaced more than 10,000 people since the start of July. In Afghanistan, El Nino conditions are expected to result in above average rainfall, putting large swathes of the country at risk of flooding. In response to increased climate risk, the IRC's anticipatory action model already delivers cash to at-risk families ahead of disaster, helping them buy food, pay for water and protect livestock rather than face impossible choices like pulling children from school or arranging early marriages for their daughters.

In the face of a strengthening El Nino, the IRC is calling on donors and governments to fund more anticipatory action activities across East Africa and Asia now, rather than waiting for disaster to strike. Early funding would allow the IRC and partners to reach families in impacted areas with cash, clean water and early warnings before the worst hits, thereby saving lives, preserving resources, and reducing suffering.