Fitch Solutions has raised its forecast for Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus to 7.8% of GDP, from an earlier projection of 5.2%, following a stronger-than-expected trade performance in the first half of the year.

The research arm of global ratings agency Fitch Ratings says Ghana recorded a US$4.3 billion merchandise trade surplus in H1 2026, well above the US$700 million average for the first halves of 2016 to 2025.

According to Fitch Solutions, the strong performance was driven by robust gold exports and rising crude oil shipments, which significantly strengthened Ghana’s external position during the period.

The firm says the trade surplus came in above its expectations, prompting the upward revision to its full-year current account forecast.

“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” Fitch Solutions said.

The latest projection points to a stronger external position for Ghana in 2026, with export earnings providing substantial support to the country’s current account.

However, Fitch Solutions expects some moderation in 2027, forecasting a narrower current account surplus, although it says the balance will remain sizeable.

The outlook underscores the importance of Ghana’s commodity exports to its external position, particularly gold, which continues to provide a major source of foreign exchange earnings.

The stronger-than-expected H1 trade balance also gives Ghana a larger external buffer, although the sustainability of the position will depend heavily on commodity export performance and developments in global prices.

For now, Fitch Solutions’ revised 7.8% of GDP forecast marks a improvement on its previous outlook and reflects the stronger-than-anticipated performance of Ghana’s external sector in the first half of 2026.