Ghana’s public debt trajectory showed further signs of stabilization in November 2025, offering cautious optimism to investors and the business community after years of fiscal strain.

Latest figures from the Bank of Ghana’s Summary of Economic and Financial Data for the period ending January 2026 put the country’s total public debt stock at GH¢644.6 billion as at November 2025, translating into a debt-to-GDP ratio of 45.5 percent.

This marks a notable improvement in debt sustainability metrics and reflects a gradual tightening of fiscal conditions.

The data shows that on a month-on-month basis, that is between October 2025 and November 2025, debt increased by about GH¢14.4 billion.

It however declined by about GH¢40 billion between September and November, 2025, driven by reduced borrowing and stronger cash management.

In dollar terms, total debt stood at US$57.2 billion in November, down from US$57.8 billion in October, though slightly above the US$55.1 billion recorded in September. These shifts mainly reflect exchange rate movements rather than new borrowing.

A closer look at the debt composition shows broad-based moderation. External debt fell to US$29.3 billion (GH¢330.2 billion and 23.3% of GDP), down from US$29.5 billion (GH¢367.0 billion) in September.

Domestic debt also declined to GH¢314.5 billion, representing 22.2 percent of GDP, compared with GH¢317.6 billion two months earlier, easing pressure on local financial markets and potentially freeing up credit for businesses.

Year-on-year comparisons highlight the impact of disciplined fiscal management. Total public debt in November 2025 was GH¢644.6 billion (45.5% of GDP), down from GH¢742.5 billion (63.1% of GDP) in November 2024, a significant improvement in debt sustainability. Both domestic and external debt moderated over the year, reducing reliance on local borrowing and improving fiscal stability.

For businesses, the combined effect of a lighter debt burden, lower inflation (5.4%), and a cut in the Monetary Policy Rate to 18% creates a more predictable operating environment. While cautious spending limits short-term public-sector investment, the outlook points to long-term fiscal stability and stronger prospects for private investment.

Also, a lighter domestic debt burden reduces the government’s reliance on local borrowing, easing the long-standing “crowding out” effect and potentially freeing up more credit for the private sector.

Behind the stabilising debt numbers is a clear push on revenue mobilisation. By November 2025, total revenue and grants reached 13.4 percent of GDP, with domestic revenue accounting for an overwhelming 13.3 percent. Grants contributed a marginal 0.1 percent, highlighting a decisive shift away from aid dependence.

Tax revenue alone stood at 10.8 percent of GDP, reinforcing the government’s growing reliance on internal collections. For the business community, the signal is unmistakable: tax compliance, enforcement, and policy reforms will remain firmly at the centre of fiscal strategy.

Equally telling is the discipline on the spending side. Total government expenditure was contained at 13.9 percent of GDP in November 2025, a sharp pullback from the 16.6 percent recorded in November 2024.

That restraint, however, comes with trade-offs. Capital expenditure remained subdued at just 0.9 percent of GDP, reflecting a cautious approach to infrastructure spending as authorities prioritise stabilisation over expansion.

Crucially, the government posted a primary surplus of 1.9 percent of GDP on a cash basis—a key marker of its ability to service debt without resorting to additional borrowing.

Running a primary surplus while narrowing the overall cash deficit to –1.4 percent of GDP, from –5.2 percent a year earlier, signals a decisive shift in fiscal management. Combined with inflation easing to 5.4 percent and the Monetary Policy Rate cut to 18.0 percent by December 2025, the macroeconomic environment is clearly cooling in favour of growth.

For businesses, the message is nuanced but encouraging. While lean capital spending may limit short-term public-sector opportunities, the payoff is greater fiscal stability, lower interest rates, and a more predictable operating environment—conditions that are far more supportive of long-term private investment.

In short, Ghana’s government is tightening its belt. If sustained, this discipline could mark a turning point from crisis management to durable economic recovery.