Fitch Solutions has projected a robust growth outlook for the country in 2026, forecasting that the country will outperform several emerging-market peers due to sustained macroeconomic gains.
According to Mike Kruiniger, Assistant Director at Fitch Solutions, Ghana's growth trajectory is "particularly impressive", with the 2026 Budget providing further support for the economy's upward momentum.
Speaking at the 2026 PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) post-budget forum held last Wednesday, November 19, in Accra, the UK-based research firm attributes the outlook to the country’s solid macroeconomic performance in 2025 and expects the momentum to extend into next year.
Mr Kruiniger noted that Fitch Solutions expects Ghana's real GDP growth rate to rise marginally from 5.8 per cent in 2025 to 5.9 per cent in 2026, driven primarily by strong private consumption and a rebound in fixed investment following a sharp contraction in 2023.
This forecast underscores Ghana's resilient economic performance and potential for continued growth.
According to him, Fitch Solutions expects Ghana’s real GDP growth rate to increase marginally from 5.8 per cent in 2025 to 5.9 per cent in 2026, driven largely by strong private consumption and a continued rebound in fixed investment following the sharp contraction recorded in 2023.
“Looking beyond 2026, growth is expected to remain healthy at around five per cent, supported by expanding domestic demand,” he added.
Global comparisons
“Importantly, Ghana’s growth projections are not only strong by historical standards but also by global comparison. 
The country is set to outpace several other emerging markets next year, including mainland China, Indonesia and Kenya. Overall, Ghana’s growth story in 2026 will be one of outperformance.”
While the firm maintains a broadly optimistic outlook, Kruiniger warned that rising extremist activity in the Sahel region remains the most significant downside risk to Ghana’s economic prospects.
He explained that persistent instability in Mali and neighbouring Sahelian states increases the possibility of security spillovers into West Africa’s coastal countries, with implications for investor confidence, fiscal stability and broader macroeconomic conditions.
“So far, Ghana has been relatively shielded from violent spillovers compared to other coastal West African states—Benin, for example,” he observed, attributing the country’s resilience partly to the nature of its northern terrain, which is less forested and, therefore, more difficult for militant groups to operate undetected.
Militants surge
“Additionally, state control in northern Ghana remains stronger than in many neighbouring countries. But Islamist groups are gaining ground in the Sahel, particularly in Mali, and the risks to Ghana are rising.
“Our base case is that Ghana will remain largely insulated from major attacks. But if militants were to cross into northern Ghana, the government would likely need to ramp up military spending, which is currently among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
Nonetheless, he warned that if extremist groups were to encroach into northern Ghana, the government may be forced to significantly increase military expenditure—an area where the country currently ranks among the lowest in sub-Saharan Africa.
Fitch’s analysis underscores the dual reality confronting Ghana: a promising growth outlook supported by domestic demand recovery, but one increasingly vulnerable to regional security dynamics beyond its borders.
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