Fitch Ratings has projected that six banks operating in Ghana are unlikely to achieve capital compliance through internal capital generation alone.

To this end, it said the af­fected banks would need to seek capital injections, merge with or be acquired by better-capitalised banks, or be granted extend­ed forbearance to allow time to retain sufficient earnings to comply.

It pointed out that two of the banks that remain undercap­italised were government-owned and have already received capital injections.

“The vast majority of Gha­naian banks are on track to be capital-compliant once regula­tory forbearance relating to the treatment of Ghana’s domestic default expires at the end of 2025,” the report said.

According to Fitch Ratings, this was due to strong profits, low risk-weighted asset growth and, in some cases, capital injec­tions.

“Ghana’s Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP), which was launched in December 2022 and concluded in 2023, im­posed large losses on the banking sector and had a significant impact on banks’ capitalisation given their high exposure to sovereign fixed-income securities. In response, the Bank of Ghana eliminated the capital conserva­tion buffer of 3 per cent, which reduced the minimum total cap­ital adequacy ratio requirement to 10 per cent from 13 per cent”, the UK-based firm said.

“It also allowed banks to phase in losses relating to cedi government bonds into their reg­ulatory capital evenly over four years, starting from end-2022. Cedi-denominated government bonds accounted for the bulk of the debt subject to the DDEP,” it added.

Explaining further, Fitch said the favourable treatment of losses on cedi government bonds had enabled the vast majority of Ghanaian banks to remain capital-compliant and helped pre­serve confidence in the banking sector.

To this end, it alluded that no forbearance was granted in respect of losses on other bonds subject to the DDEP, or Ghana’s Eurobonds, which were restruc­tured in October 2024, given banks’ relatively low exposure to these instruments.

“We expect them to receive further capital support to achieve capital compliance, although this may not materialise before end-2025,” it added.

Meanwhile, the banking sector’s capital adequacy ratio excluding the benefit of forbear­ance was first disclosed by the Bank of Ghana at the end of February 2024, as 8.7 per cent. It increased to 18.2 per cent at the end of the first-half of 2025.

This indicated that the vast majority of banks will be com­fortably compliant when the re­maining 25 per cent of the losses incurred on cedi government bonds is phased into regulatory capital at end-2025.