The Critical Minerals Africa (CMA) 2024 Summit kicked-off today in Cape Town with presentations on the state of play of the African market presented by market research firms Project Blue and Rystad Energy as well as investment organization The World.

Nils Backeberg, Founder & Director at Project Blue, stated that geopolitical shifts and the rising demand for metals essential to energy transition technologies are impacting the African market.

“Changes in government policies across countries such as Botswana, Mozambique, the U.S., and regions in Europe will shape mineral trade and investment relations,” he noted, underscoring the effects of global power shifts on Africa's mineral sector.

Backeberg pointed to U.S.-China trade tensions and similar dynamics involving Europe and Japan as potential accelerators of investments in Africa’s supply chain, with Tanzania emerging as a focal point in the U.S.-China competition over Southern African minerals.

The U.S. recently announced an initiative to expand the Lobito Corridor, spanning Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Tanzania, while China signed an agreement with Tanzania and Zambia for the TAZARA railway project.

“Africa’s geopolitical opportunities are vast, but supply chains are becoming increasingly complex,” stated Backeberg.

The electric vehicles market boom will also amplify investment in Africa’s copper, lithium and cobalt sectors, according to Backeberg, with China currently leading this demand surge, Europe advancing, and the U.S. projected to slow down due to political shifts.

Martin Lokanc, Senior Mining Specialist at The World Bank, discussed population growth, increased economic activities and their implications on Africa’s critical mineral sector. He highlighted that rapid urbanization - expected to see 60% of the global population in cities by 2050 - is driving demand for critical minerals, with Africa and India at the forefront.

“Decarbonization is a significant disruptor, prompting a reengineering of the global energy system and requiring more minerals, particularly from Africa,” Lokanc stated. He added that copper demand is projected to double by 2050, offering Africa, particularly the DRC and Zambia, a prime opportunity to expand their market share.

Lokanc also called for more local beneficiation to ensure mining profits fuel local economies, noting that many of the world’s poorest regions overlap with high mineral concentrations.

Erik Holm Reiso, Senior Partner & Head of EMEA at Rystad Energy, emphasized Africa’s potential to address the global metals shortage, with lithium demand expected to surge by 12 times by 2050.

Wade Cherwayko, Co-founder & Director of Tronic Metals Ltd, added, “We cannot overlook African oil and gas; instead, we must harness these resources to support a stable power supply that will underpin critical mineral production and energy diversification.”