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The International Cocoa Organization today releases its revised forecasts for the 2023/24 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2022/23 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 3 - Volume L - cocoa year 2023/24 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of August 2024.
Global supply remains low and the Bulletin outlines factors including adverse weather conditions, aged trees, pests and diseases that affected production in major cocoa growing areas during the season under review.
Taking into account available trade data and published grindings data, cocoa demand outstripped global supply.
Considering the market balance, a production deficit of 462,000 tonnes is forecast for the 2023/24 season. Total end-of-season stocks are envisaged at 1.324 million tonnes. This results in a 45-year low stocks-to-grindings ratio of 27.9%.
Though prices have recently experienced a descent from their historic rallies, they remain relatively high as the supply constraints persist. A review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the April-June quarter of 2024 is also presented.
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Summary of forecasts and revised estimates |
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Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Year-on-year change |
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Revised |
Previous |
Revised |
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estimates |
forecasts a/ |
forecasts |
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(thousand tonnes) |
(Per cent) |
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World gross production |
5 050 |
4 461 |
4 332 |
- 718 |
- 14.2% |
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World grindings |
5 057 |
4 855 |
4 751 |
- 306 |
- 6.0% |
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Surplus/deficit b/ |
- 57 |
- 439 |
- 462 |
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End-of-season stocks |
1 786 |
1 328 |
1 324 |
- 462 |
- 26.1% |
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Stocks/Grindings ratio |
35.3% |
27.4% |
27.9% |
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