MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q4, 2023 Real GDP Growth |
3.8% |
Average Real GDP Growth for 2023 |
2.9% |
2024 Projected Real GDP Growth |
2.8% |
BoG Policy Rate |
29.0% |
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate |
28.74% |
Inflation for March, 2024 |
25.8% |
End Period Inflation Target – 2024 |
15.0% |
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Sep, 2023 |
2.5% |
2024 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) |
3.0% |
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Dec, 2023 |
610.0 |
Debt to GDP Ratio – Dec, 2023 |
72.5% |
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange bounced back to winning ways on the back of price increases by 2 counters. The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) gained 146.16 points (+4.17%) for the week to close at 3,650.41 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 16.62%.
The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FI) remained flat (0.00%) for the week to close at 2,044.36 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 7.51%.
Market capitalization increased by 2.02% to close the week at GH¢79,908.14 million, from GH¢78,327.80 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects a YTD gain of 8.14%.
The week recorded a total of 992,584 shares valued at GH¢3,549,039.44, compared with 4,140,350 shares, valued at GH¢16,600,575.39 traded in the preceding week.
MTNGH dominated volume of trades for the week whiles NewGold Exchange Traded Fund dominated value of trades for the week, accounting for 75.31% and 41.32% of volume and value of shares traded respectively. The market ended the week with 2 advancers and 1 laggard as indicated in the table below.
Price Movers for the Week |
|||
Equity |
Opening Price |
Closing Price |
Gain/Loss (%) |
MTNGH |
1.60 |
1.72 |
?7.50% |
BOPP |
21.53 |
21.55 |
?0.09% |
GLD |
314.00 |
311.00 |
?0.96% |
Source: Ghana Stock Exchange
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi continued its depreciation run against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢13.4161/$, compared with GH¢13.1994/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.62% and 11.45% respectively. This compares with a loss of 21.69% a year ago.
The Cedi also declined against the GBP for the week. It traded at GH¢16.8392/£, compared with GH¢16.4550/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 2.28% and 10.13% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 25.44% a year ago.
The Cedi again retreated against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢14.4524/€, compared with GH¢14.1069/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 2.39% and 9.18% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 24.21% a year ago.
The Cedi lost against the Canadian Dollar for the week. It opened at GH¢9.8034/C$ but closed at GH¢9.6449/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.62% and 8.08% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 22.49% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates |
|||||
Currency Pair |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Change% |
YTD % |
|
01-01-24 |
29-04-24 |
03-05-24 |
|
|
USD/GHS |
11.8800 |
13.1994 |
13.4161 |
?1.62 |
?11.45 |
GBP/GHS |
15.1334 |
16.4550 |
16.8392 |
?2.28 |
?10.13 |
EUR/GHS |
13.1264 |
14.1069 |
14.4524 |
?2.39 |
?9.18 |
CAD/GHS |
9.0112 |
9.6449 |
9.8034 |
?1.62 |
?8.08 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢3,465.27 million for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills. This compared with GH¢3,110.79 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day Bill settled at 25.45% p.a. from 25.55% p.a. last week whilst the 182-Day Bill settled at 27.40% p.a. from 27.65% p.a. last week. The 364-Day Bill settled at 28.00% p.a. from 28.25% p.a. last week.
The tables below highlight primary market activity at close of the week.
Security |
Year Open |
Previous Yield % |
Current Yield % |
WoW Chg (%) |
YTD Chg (%) |
|
01-01-24 |
29-04-24 |
03-05-24 |
|
|
91 Day TB |
29.24 |
25.55 |
25.45 |
?0.39 |
?12.97 |
182 Day TB |
31.88 |
27.65 |
27.40 |
?0.90 |
?14.07 |
364 Day TB |
32.49 |
28.25 |
28.00 |
?0.88 |
?13.81 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
The Ghana Market Summary |
|||
|
Current |
Previous |
Change |
Bid (GH¢' M) |
3,465.27 |
3,110.79 |
?11.40% |
Issuance (GH¢' M) |
3,465.27 |
3,110.79 |
?11.40% |
Target (GH¢' M) |
2,960 |
3,478 |
?14.89% |
Maturity (GH¢' M) |
3,336.04 |
3,267.54 |
?2.10% |
Target coverage ratio |
1.17 |
0.89 |
na |
Maturity coverage ratio |
1.04 |
0.95 |
na |
Bid / Cover ratio |
1.00 |
1.00 |
na |
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices fell, as the dollar weakened following a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report, while data pointing to rising U.S. supplies reined in bets for tighter markets. Brent futures traded at US$82.83 a barrel, compared to US$89.50 at week open, reflecting w/w loss and YTD appreciation of 7.45% and 16.17% respectively.
Gold prices fell, extending steep overnight losses that saw the yellow metal slide past a key support level as markets braced for potentially hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. Gold settled at US$2,308.60, from US$2,335.00 last week, reflecting w/w depreciation and YTD gain of 1.13% and 11.43% respectively.
The price of Cocoa declined for the week. Cocoa traded at US$8,024.00 per tonne on Friday, from US$10,729.00 last week, reflecting w/w loss and YTD gain of 25.21% and 91.23% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Chg% |
YTD % |
|
01-01-24 |
29-04-24 |
03-05-24 |
|
|
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) |
77.04 |
89.50 |
82.83 |
?7.45 |
?7.52 |
Gold (USD/t oz.) |
2,071.80 |
2,335.00 |
2,308.60 |
?1.13 |
?11.43 |
Cocoa (USD/MT) |
4,196.00 |
10,729.00 |
8,024.00 |
?25.21 |
?91.23 |
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Inverted Yield Curve: An inverted yield curve shows that long-term interest rates are less than short-term interest rates. With an inverted yield curve, the yield decreases the farther away the maturity date is. Sometimes referred to as a negative yield curve, the inverted curve has proven in the past to be a reliable indicator of a recession
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/invertedyieldcurve.asp
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
RESEARCH TEAM
Name: Ernest Tannor
Email: etannor@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 881 8957
Name: Moses Nana Osei-Yeboah
Email: moyeboah@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 24 499 0069
Name: Julian Sapara-Grant
Email: jsgrant@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 821 2079
CORPORATE INFORMATION
CIDAN Investments Limited
CIDAN House
House No. 261
Haatso, North Legon – Accra
Tel: +233 (0) 27 690 0011/ 55 989 9935
Fax : +233 (0)30 254 4351
Email : info@cidaninvestments.com
Website : www.cidaninvestments.com
Disclaimer: The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.