Ninth-placed Motherwell travel to Ayrshire to face a Kilmarnock side a place and three points below them. Meanwhile, the bottom two - Ross County and Dundee United - go at it in Dingwall.

With such a key day of action looming, BBC Scotland crunches the numbers behind the fight to avoid the drop.

Could 32 be the magic number?

Since the SPFL play-offs were reintroduced in 2013-14, no more than 37 points have been required to guarantee survival.

As it stands, this season's magic number looks set to be lower than that figure, with 11th-placed County projected to reach a tally of no more than 31 - so what does that mean for the current bottom four?

For Motherwell, it would mean just two more wins are required. After back-to-back victories in the space of five days against St Mirren and Hearts under interim boss Stuart Kettlewell, that certainly doesn't look beyond them.

Another nine points would be required for Kilmarnock in their final 12 games. In their last 12 league fixtures, Derek McInnes' side have managed a tally of 11.

County would therefore have to beat the Ayrshire side's projected total of 34, meaning four wins between now and the end of the season might not be enough.

The same applies for United, who currently lie at the foot of the table. Of course, form can fluctuate and post-split fixtures can nudge those points-per-game averages up, but considering the bottom two have only won five games each so far, expecting four or more from their final 12 games seems a stretch at present.

What do the stats say?

Despite a cloud of uncertainty hanging over Fir Park, with a manager and chief executive yet to be appointed, Motherwell's underlying numbers look positive and have them moving in the right direction.

Their expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA) figures plant them around mid-table. The Lanarkshire side are the highest scorers out the bottom four, with the 11 league goals talismanic striker Kevin van Veen has netted playing a crucial part in that.

It's a different story for Kilmarnock, who have the lowest shot conversion rate (7.02%) out the bottom four despite having the most touches in the opposition box (510).

A lack of striking options has been a problem for McInnes, who lost both Kyle Lafferty and Oli Shaw in the January transfer window.

Kyle Vassell's red card at Easter Road on Saturday, which has since been appealed, also adds to McInnes' headache. However, the other end of the pitch is arguably a bigger issue.

The Ayrshire side have conceded the second most goals (46) in the division despite having a better xGA (34.8) than five other Premiership clubs.

Based on that metric, this means McInnes' backline has conceded 11 more goals than they should have judging by the quality of chances created against them.

It's a similar story for United, who are underperforming their xGA by almost six. Quite often, this can point to an inadequate goalkeeper, which seems to be the case at Tannadice, where Mark Birighitti added to a growing list of errors in Saturday's defeat to St Johnstone.

However, the Australian can take solace in the fact he will be coming up against the league's lowest-scoring attack this Saturday.

County have mustered just 20 goals in 26 games. The 61 shots on target Malky Mackay's frontline have managed across the season averages out to 2.3 per game. That will have to change if the Highlanders want to haul themselves away from trouble.

Who has the toughest run-in?

Motherwell could pull themselves away from danger by dispatching relegation rivals Kilmarnock and County in their next two games.

Failure to do that, however, will mean the Fir Park club go into a rough five-game run to finish off their pre-split fixtures, with Rangers, Celtic and a trip to Easter Road awaiting them.

Same applies for Kilmarnock, who play four of the current top six in their final six pre-split games, including the top two, Hearts and St Mirren. A trip to Pittodrie is also in there for good measure.

A positive for United and County is that both the bottom two only have one of the Old Firm to face, with Liam Fox's side on the road to Ibrox and Mackay's men hosting Celtic prior to the split.

There is a tough trip to Livingston in there for United, as well as home clashes against Aberdeen and Hibs, plus a relegation six-pointer at Fir Park.

Mackay's men, meanwhile, welcome United and Motherwell to Dingwall in their next two games in a huge double-header. Following that, the Highlanders also face a jaunt to West Lothian and an outing to Hearts amongst their final pre-split encounters.

Twists, turns and nail-biting drama can be expected over the next two months, and that's before we even get to the madness of the split. Hold tight.