The ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) has seen a sharp rise in support since the 2024 general elections, according to Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics.

Speaking on JoyNews on Tuesday, Mr Dankwah shared data indicating a notable shift in party loyalties.

Deputy National Youth Organizer of the NDC, Osman Ayariga, had argued that the party has become so attractive that if a by-election were held today in an NPP stronghold, the NDC would win.

Mussa Dankwah said: “I wouldn’t use the word attractive as a pollster but the numbers show that those who openly say they are NDC has gone up quite sharply than the 2024 data.

“So what we’ve seen from the data is as at October 2024, people who openly say they are NPP was about 37%. And those who say openly NDC 33%. So NPP had 4 point advantage, 2024 before the elections. After the elections, averagely NDC around 40%, self identified NDC sympathizers and NPP is around 28/29 percent,” Mr Dankwah said.

The development comes as the Ayawaso East by-election unfolds across 113 polling stations to elect a new Member of Parliament following the death of sitting MP Mahama Naser Toure in January 2026.

More than 40,000 registered voters were expected to participate in the exercise, though voter turnout was generally low, with several polling stations recording sparse queues throughout the day.

The contest featured Baba Jamal of the NDC and Baba Ali of the New Patriotic Party (NPP) as the main contenders. Also on the ballot were Independent candidate Umaru Sanda Muhammed, who defected from the NDC, as well as Ibrahim Iddrisu and David Kunor.

A recent survey by Global InfoAnalytics projected a decisive victory for Baba Jamal, forecasting a 75 per cent share of the vote. The final results will confirm whether that prediction holds.