Italians have been living under a national stay-at-home order since 9 March, with everyone required to remain within a few streets of their door.

The BBC's Tom Feilden reports:

This is report 20 from the Imperial team - a sobering read for anyone thinking that things are going to get back to normal.

It looks at drastic measures the Italian government put in and what happens if you reintroduce mobility back into society. It looks at three scenarios: staying in lockdown and increasing movement by 20% and 40%.

Even with the lower figure of 20% of people getting back to normal life, that would be enough to trigger the onset of another wave of infections and subsequent deaths, bigger than the first.

The message is what you have managed to do is suspend the outbreak but as soon as you undo lockdown, you run the risk of it flaring up.

The researchers go on to say it is a pessimistic projection and they're not factoring everything in. It is a model but it doesn’t allow for additional measures like community surveillance, contact tracing and isolating infected people.