The first case of Covid-19 outside China was announced in Thailand on 13 January. The prediction was that this region, with huge numbers of Chinese visitors, would be among the worst affected. But that has not happened.
Vietnam is the standout success with only 268 cases and no deaths. The communist party leadership recognised the threat very early, declaring in late January the need to fight the virus like a war, and deploying propaganda reminiscent of the conflict with the US to get the public on board. Vietnam was also ruthless in quarantining entire districts where the virus was detected. It has limited healthcare resources and lacks the testing capacity of advanced economies like South Korea. Vietnam’s achievement is likely down to containing Covid-19 early, and using an intrusive state apparatus effectively.
Thailand’s Covid-19 numbers are also strikingly low, fewer than 3,000, with just 49 deaths. Thailand too is unable to test widely. Only 140,000 have been conducted since January. Health officials say mass testing would be too expensive. But Thailand also got its population on board very early with measures like facemasks. It has been able to isolate and trace contacts for identified cases, and has a network of one million health volunteers across the country.
Infections - and deaths - are rising quickly in Indonesia, where measures have been minimal. In Myanmar, which has a testing capacity of just 300 a day, there are fears the official Covid-19 number is far too low.
But none of these countries has levels anywhere near those in Europe and the US. Health experts aren’t sure why. Weather may play a part, as may social behaviour. It is probably too soon to know whether South East Asia will escape the terrible scenes witnessed at hospitals in Italy and New York.