According to its latest assessment of Ghana Titled “Positive Shift in Ghana’s Political Risk Profile Following IMF Programme Approval”, the UK-based firm said there was a risk the government would fail to meet its IMF targets in 2024.

Since the start of this decade, total expenditure as a share of Gross Domestic Product increased by an average of 3.0 percentage points during election years, signaling that some level of fiscal slippage is likely in 2024.

Nonetheless, Fitch Solutions, said a higher-than-budgeted expenditure was unlikely to lead to a suspension of the IMF programme.

“Nonetheless, higher-than-budgeted for expenditure is unlikely to lead to a suspension of the IMF programme. Indeed, when public expenditure surpassed budgetary allocations in 2016 (an election year), the IMF board approved waivers for non-observance of performance criteria and decided to extend the arrangement by one year,” it pointed out.

“As such, anticipated fiscal slippage in 2024 is unlikely to result in a loss of investor confidence, which – in turn – would weaken the cedi and drive up inflation and could lead to greater social unrest,”  it added.

Furthermore, Fitch Solutions, said it believed that IMF assistance would improve economic conditions in Ghana and therefore limit risks to social stability over the coming quarters.