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The International Cocoa Organization today releases its first forecasts for the 2022/23 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings, and stocks of cocoa beans for the 2021/22 cocoa year. The data published in Issue No. 1 - Volume XLIX - cocoa year 2022/23 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the beginning of February 2023.
A growing number of uncertainties including the current global macroeconomic outlook, the effect of climate change and diseases are likely to have an impact on cocoa supply and demand. As such, the 2022/23 season is anticipated to result in a limited supply deficit while demand is envisaged to be subdued. The expectation of a supply deficit has also been compounded with weather variations, especially in West Africa.
Compared to the 2021/22 season, global cocoa supply is anticipated to rise by 4% to 5.017 million tonnes. Global cocoa demand is projected to decrease by less than 1% to 5.027 million tonnes.
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Summary of forecasts and revised estimates |
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Cocoa year (Oct-Sep) |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Year-on-year change |
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Previous |
Revised |
Forecasts |
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estimates a/ |
estimates |
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(thousand tonnes) |
(Per cent) |
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World gross production |
4 823 |
4 818 |
5 017 |
+ 199 |
+ 4.1% |
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World grindings |
5 081 |
5 057 |
5 027 |
- 30 |
- 0.6% |
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Surplus/deficit b/ |
- 306 |
- 287 |
-60 |
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End-of-season stocks |
1 622 |
1 712 |
1 652 |
- 60 |
- 3.5% |
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Stocks/Grindings ratio |
31.9% |
33.9% |
32.9% |
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Notes:
a/ Estimates published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XLVIII - No. 4 - Cocoa year 2021/22
b/ Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for 1% loss in weight) minus grindings.
Totals may differ due to rounding.
Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2019/20 to 2021/22 and quarterly statistics for the period January-March 2021 to July-September 2022. Details on destinations of exports and origins of imports for leading cocoa exporting countries are also provided.
Copies of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, in Microsoft Excel and Adobe PDF formats, can be ordered from the ICCO e-Shop: www.icco.org/shop or by email: statistics.section@icco.org
