SIZE OF COCOA BEANS STOCKS IN EXCHANGE-LICENSED WAREHOUSES IN EUROPE AND THE UNITED STATES
Figure 1 and Figure 2 indicate that at this stage of the 2022/23 cocoa year, total stocks of cocoa beans in the Ex- change-licensed warehouses are higher year-over-year on both sides of the Atlantic. At the end of November 2022, total stocks in Exchange-licensed warehouses in Europe amounted to 185,090 tonnes, up by 18% compared to the volume of 157,329 tonnes seen a year ago. Similarly, stocks of cocoa beans in licensed warehouses in the United States were up by 6% to 358,762 tonnes year-on-year.

Based on data published at the end of November 2022 by the Exchange in its reports on the composition by origin of stocks, valid certified stocks of cocoa beans held in European Exchange-licensed warehouses originated mainly from Cameroon (43% or 55,830 tonnes), Nigeria (39% or 49,670 tonnes), Côte d’Ivoire (13% or 17,060 tonnes) and Guin- ea (3% or 3,590 tonnes) (Figure 3). In the United States (Figure 4), certified stocks comprised cocoa beans mainly from Ecuador (49% or 29,266 tonnes), Côte d’Ivoire (19% or 11,178 tonnes), Nigeria (12% or 7,049 tonnes), and Venezuela (6% or 3,746 tonnes). Cocoa bean stocks in European Exchange warehouses are mainly made up of African origins while in the United States, certified stocks of cocoa beans mostly originate from neighboring Latin American countries.

FUTURES PRICES DEVELOPMENTS
During November, prices of the front-month cocoa futures averaged US$2,394 per tonne and ranged between US$2,211 and US$2,559 per tonne in London, while in New York the first position contract traded at an average price of US$2,445 per tonne and oscillated between US$2,352 and US$2,564 per tonne. A year back in November 2021, in London, the average price of the front-month contract settled at US$2,241 per tonne and ranged between US$2,117 and US$2,303 per tonne. Meanwhile, prices of the first position of cocoa futures in New York averaged US$2,460 per tonne and oscillated between US$2,320 and US$2,556 per tonne. Figure 5 shows price movements of the first and second positions on the London and New York futures markets respectively at the London closing time in November 2022, while Figure 6 presents similar information for the previous year.

As presented in Figure 5, the nearby cocoa futures contract traded on a positive note during November in both Lon- don and New York. In London, cocoa futures prices increased substantially by 16% from US$2,211 to US$2,559 per tonne whereas in New York they moved up by 3% from US$2,352 to US$2,433 per tonne. This overall bullish stance could be separated into three main stages. Over 1-10 November, prices of the first position of cocoa contracts equally firmed by 9% on both sides of the Atlantic moving from US$2,211 to US$2,416 per tonne and from US$2,352 to US$2,564 per tonne in London and New York respectively. At the time, episodes of torrential rains reported in the main cocoa-growing areas of West Africa raised concerns over a possible outbreak of the black pod disease and thereby, could contribute to the deterioration of the size of the main crop. In addition, the strike of carriers in the Ivorian port of San Pedro (the main port for exports of cocoa) was seen as a critical parameter that could disrupt the flow of cocoa exports. It should be outlined that, during October 2022, exports of cocoa beans in Côte d’Ivoire plunged by 67% year-on-year from 75,231 tonnes to 24,759 tonnes (Source: Reuters). This staggering cut in the country’s cocoa exports could have partly been due to the slowing in activities at the San Pedro port.
Moving on to 11-22 November, there was a setback of 6% in cocoa prices, from US$2,524 to US$2,372 per tonne in New York while in London they increased slightly by 1% from US$2374 to US$2,410 per tonne. Meanwhile, infor- mation that market participants in the United States were reported to have undertaken substantial long liquidation in the midst of concerns about global demand and weaker projections of the U.S. economy2 combined with the spike in COVID-19 contaminations in China took a toll on cocoa prices. At the latter part of the month under review, prices were improved by 5% from US$2,428 to US$2,559 per tonne in London and by 1% from US$2,403 to US$2,433 per tonne in New York.

SUMMARY OF GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND ESTIMATES FOR THE 2021/22 SEASON
At the end of November, the estimates for the 2021/22 cocoa season published by the ICCO Secretariat in its latest issue of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics (QBCS) mentioned a supply deficit of 306,000 tonnes. Global produc-tion is estimated to have decreased by 8.0% to 4.823 million tonnes. In Africa, production is seen on a decline, moving down by 11.3% to 3.594 million tonnes, whereas in the Americas as well as in Asia and Oceania, crop output is estimat- ed to have increased by 3.2% to 963,000 tonnes and by 4.7% to 266,000 tonnes respectively. Inversely, grindings increased to 5.081 million tonnes, up by 100,000 tonnes, representing a 2.0% increase compared to the revised estimate of 4.981 million tonnes for the 2020/21 cocoa season. It is estimated that processing activities have expanded by 2.3% to 1.850 million tonnes in Europe, whereas a growth of 7.5% to 1.128 million tonnes is seen for Africa. In the Americas, processing activities fell by 4.7% to 928,000 tonnes while in Asia and Oceania, grindings went up by 2.2% to 1.175 million tonnes compared to the level attained during the previous season.