Weekly Highlights

• Yields on the 182-Day Treasury bill ease by 3 basis points.
• The GSE Composite Index extended its bullish run. Financial Stock index moderated.
• The Ghana cedi down against the US dollar and the British pound but appreciated against the Euro.
• Major international equity markets closed the week bullish.
• Oil prices on a bullish run.

Macroeconomic Update

Key Ghana Economic Data

Indicator 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021
Target Actual
Inflation CPI (y-o-y %) 9.40 7.90 10.40 8± 2 9.70
Inflation PPI (y-o-y %) 4.40 13.00 7.00 n/a 8.10
Monetary Policy Rate (%) 17.0 16.00 14.50 n/a 13.50
GDP Growth (y-o-y %) 6.3 6.5 0.4 5.00 3.90
Budget Deficit (% of GDP) 3.8 4.5Sep 11.7 9.50 5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP) 57.6 63.00 68.3 n/a 77.1
Fx. Reserves (M. Cover) 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.00 5.0
Source: BOG; MOFEP; GSS.

Government of Ghana Treasury Securities

Treasury Bills, Notes & Bonds (%)
Date 91-Day 182-day 364-day 2-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr
Oct 11–Oct 15 12.47 13.15 16.21 17.50 17.70 18.80
Oct 04–Oct 08 12.47 13.18 16.21 17.50 17.70 18.80
Sep 27–Oct 01 12.49 13.22 16.14 17.50 17.70 18.80
2021 Yr Open 14.09 14.12 17.00 18.50 19.25 19.85
NB: The above are the annual yields on Government of Ghana Treasury Securities.

At the last treasury auction, interest rate on the 91-Day T-bill remained unchanged at 12.47 percent, while the 182-Day bill retreated by 3 basis points to open this week at 13.15 percent. The 364-Day bill, treasury note and bonds, however, stayed, as they were not scheduled for the week’s auctions.

Results of Auction held on 8th October, 2021

Bill Bids Tendered GHS (Million) Bids Accepted GHS (Million) Interest Rate (%)
91-Day T-Bill 827.17 827.17 12.4742
182-Day T-Bill 166.22 166.22 13.1518

Government accepted all the GHS 993.39 million worth of bids tendered in by investors across the 91-Day and 182-Day T-bills. This translated to GHS 481.61 million away from the week’s target of GHS 1,475 million. The 91-Day bill continued its dominance in government’s weekly purchases by more than 83 percent of total successful bids. At the upcoming auction, government proposes to raise a total of GHS 808.07.00 million across the 91-Day, 182-Day, and 364-Day treasury bills.

Ghana Stock Exchange

Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) Indices (YTD %)
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GSE-CI 52.73 -0.29 -12.25 -13.98 47.75
GSE-FSI 49.51 -6.79 -6.23 -11.73 15.12

Trading activities on the exchange closed the week with the benchmark indices registering mixed outturn. The GSE Composite Index advanced by 54 basis points to bring shareholders’ year-to-date returns to 47.75 percent at a price of 2,868.71, while the Financial Stock Index shaved 10.54 points at the close of trade at an index level of 2,052.31, corresponding to a year-to-date return of 15.12 percent for equity holders.

GSE Market Indicators
Wk. Open Wk. End Change (%)
Total Volume Traded (M) 14.12 2.07 -85.34
Total Value Traded (GHS M) 18.52 3.91 -78.88
Market Cap (GHS M) 64,205.11 64,315.43 0.17

Trading on the Accra bourse declined by more than 85 percent, as compared to the previous week’s trade. A total of 2.07 million shares valued at GHS 3.91 million swapped hands in trading across nineteen equities. Scancom PLC (MNTGH) maintained its position as the week’s most traded stock in terms of volume, as it recorded more than 49 percent of total volumes traded, bringing the total market capitalization to GHS 64,315.43 million, a 0.17 percent appreciation from last week.

Stock Price Movements

At the closing bell, seven advancers and two laggards were recorded on the price mover’s chart. New Gold (GLD) maintain its position as top of the bulls list, as its share price lifted by GHS 1.75 to close the week at GHS 104.25 per share. Fan Milk PLC (FML) came second after it gained GHS 1.55 from the previous week to close trade at GHS 5.08 per share, pointing to a year-to-date gain of 370.37, percent and the best performing stock so far.

Stock Price Advancers in terms of WK closing prices
Equity Yr. Open Wk. Open Wk. End Wk. Change (GHS) YTD (%)
GLD 105.50 102.50 104.25 1.75 -1.18
FML 1.08 3.53 5.08 1.55 370.37
BOPP 2.00 2.86 3.45 0.59 72.50
GGBL 0.90 1.65 1.81 0.16 101.11
CAL 0.69 0.74 0.77 0.03 11.59

Both Scancom PLC (MTNGH) and Société Generale Ghana PLC (SOGEGH) closed trade bearish as they shed one and five pesewas, respectively, to close the week at GHS 1.23 and GHS 1.20, respectively.

Stock Price Laggards in terms of WK closing prices
Equity Yr. Open Wk. Open Wk. End Wk. Change (GHS) YTD (%)
MTNGH 0.64 1.24 1.23 -0.01 92.19
SOGEGH 0.64 1.25 1.20 -0.05 87.50

Currency Market

Currency Buying Selling Currency Buying Selling
USD 5.8659 5.8717 CAD 4.7075 4.7120
GBP 8.0046 8.0132 CFA 96.51 96.60
EUR 6.7904 6.7971 JPY 0.0524 0.0524
AUD 4.2920 4.2975 ZAR 0.3936 0.3938
NGN 70.32 70.46 CNY 0.9105 0.9112
Source: Bank of Ghana 08.10.2021

The Ghana cedi ended the week down against the US dollar and the British pound but appreciated against the Euro on the interbank forex market.

The US dollar continued its upward rally in the week’s trade closing near to a 1-year high as the US Fed is likely to begin tapering its monthly bond-buying as soon as next month and hikes in rates next year. Data released showed US jobless claims moderated by the highest in at least three-months last week suggesting the labor market recovery was regaining momentum after a recent slowdown, as the wave of COVID-19 infections began to slow. The greenback, however, retreated on Friday after disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls report showed an increase by 194,000 jobs last month shy of investors’ forecast for 500,000 new jobs. The dollar, thus, recorded 0.04 percent weekly appreciation against the cedi as it traded at a price of GHS 5.87, bringing the year-to-date depreciation of the Ghana cedi to 1.85 percent.

The British pound sterling was volatile in the week’s trading, closing the week higher as the market’s anticipation of a Bank of England hike in interest rates next year have offset investors’ concerns over the fuel shortages and supply disruptions that pushed the pound top mid-term lows last week. Market sources are foreseeing the possibility of the Bank of England leading the rest of the world’s major central banks to start raising interest rates in order to tackle inflation pressures. The pound sterling thus recorded 0.78 percent weekly appreciation to the local currency to trade at GHS 8.00 on the inter-bank forex market. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi extended to 1.68 percent as at last Friday.

The Euro closed the week of trades bearish, hovering around its weakest level since July 2020, amid concerns over mounting inflationary pressure due to rising energy prices and prospects of policy tightening across the globe. European Central Bank’s President Christine Lagarde reiterated the recent increase in inflation was seen as temporary, repeating the bank's narrative that price pressure will ease in the coming year. The shared currency thus eased to 0.13 percent weekly depreciation against the local currency to trade at a selling price of GHS 6.78 bringing the year-to-date gain of the cedi to 3.98 percent.

International Market

Stock Indices
Wk. Open Wk. Close Change (%) YTD (%)
S&P 500 Index 4,357.05 4,391.36 0.79 16.91
DJIA 34,327.45 34,746.25 1.22 13.53
FTSE 100 7,027.07 7,095.55 0.97 9.83
NIKKEI 225 28,771.07 28,048.94 -2.51 2.20
FTSE/JSEAllShare 63,661.02 65,242.61 2.48 9.82
NSE All Share 40,221.17 40,868.36 1.61 1.48
Nairobi All Share 181.23 175.82 -2.99 15.59
Source: www.bloomberg.com, www.investing.com & www.tradingeconomics.com

Wallstreet stocks ended the week higher, despite closing lower on Friday as investors digested downbeat data showing the economy created fewer jobs than expected in the month of September. This fueled concerns that the US economic recovery is far from complete. The U.S. economy created 194,000 jobs in September, well shy of forecasts for 500,000, and below the upwardly revised 155,000 jobs for August while the unemployment rate declined to 4.8% and average hourly earnings edged up. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6 percent in the month of September, compared to August's 0.4 percent increase, as firms hike wages to attract new workers amid shortfall of labor supply. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced their levels to close the week’s trade at prices of 4,391.36 and 34,746.25, respectively.

The London bourse closed the week higher, outperforming its sub-regional peers. This was underpinned by gains in commodity-backed stocks. Share prices of IAG and Ryanair rose on news that the UK government will lift quarantine requirements for 47 destinations across the country. Meanwhile, factories and homes risk power cut coming winter, the National Grid warned, while UK’s business secretary, Kwasi Kwarteng, repeated his pledge to “not bail out failing energy companies”. The FTSE 100 thus rose to a price 7,095.55 at the closing bell, after it added 68.48 points from the previous trading session.

The Japanese bourse closed Friday’s trade, gaining for a second straight session after the new Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida promised to navigate the country out of the global pandemic, while preparing a stimulus package for approval by parliament before end of year. For the week, the NIKKEI 225 shed 722.13 points, amid concerns over a slowdown in domestic and global economic recovery, to close the week at a price of 28,048.94.

On the African market, the Johannesburg All Share index rose by near 2.5 percentage points, lifted by gains in stocks in the mining sub-sector to close the week at a price of 65,242.61. The Nigerian All Share index also recorded a weekly gain of 647.19 points to end trade at 40,868.36. On the losing side, the Nairobi All Share index ended the week lower as it shed points to finish the week at a price of 175.82 at the closing bell.

International Commodities Market

Commodities
Wk. Open Wk. Close Change
(%) YTD (%)
Crude Oil $/barrel 79.28 82.39 3.92 59.05
Gold $/ounce 1,758.40 1,757.40 -0.06 -7.27
Cocoa$/metric tonne 2,710.00 2,750.00 1.48 5.65
Coffee $/pound 2.0405 2.0135 -1.32 57.00
Source:www.bloomberg.com, www.investing.com & www.tradingeconomics.com

Crude oil futures firmed up its bullish run, closing the week higher on Friday, as the US Energy Department announced it has no plans to tap the nation’s oil reserves, following reports last week Wednesday suggesting it may have been considering that option to curb rising prices. The US has used its strategic reserves on occasion, usually after hurricanes or other supply disruptions. In inventory data, US Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures showed an unexpected 2.3-million-barrel rise in crude oil inventory levels, the second straight week uptick. Brent crude oil thus added $3.11 to raise its market value to $82.39 per barrel at the end of trading session.

Price of precious gold ended the week lower, amid the US dollar’s shine and a rise in US treasury yield. The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury notes advanced near a 4-month high of 1.57 percent, as the odds are rising for the US Fed to commence its tapering next month, as the economic recovery continues. Meanwhile, the World Gold Council tweeted that global gold-backed exchange-traded funds saw net outflows of 15.2t in September, where outflows in Europe and North America were only partially offset by inflows in Asia. For the week, gold lost $1.00 at the close of trade to settle at $1,757.40, per ounce.

Cocoa futures ended the week’s trading higher, buoyed by fears that the cash crop’s output in the world's top grower Ivory Coast is expected to retreat by an estimated 11 percent in the 2021/2022 crop season. Cocoa thus recorded $40.00 weekly price gain to close the week at GHS 2,750.00 per metric tons on the international commodity market.

Arabica coffee closed the week lower, as its price dropped marginally on the international commodity market despite continued concerns of lower production output in Brazil, due to drought and frosts. The cash crop went down by 3 cents to close the week at $2.0135, per pound.

Note: The data in this publication is Friday on Friday (w/w)