MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q3, 2020 GDP Growth -1.1%
Average GDP Growth for 2020 0.2%
2020 Projected GDP Growth 0.9%
BoG Policy Rate 14.50%
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate 13.57%
Inflation for Jan, 2021 9.9%
End Period Inflation Target - 2021 8%+/-2%
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Nov, 2020 10.8%
2020 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) 11.4%
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Nov, 2020 286.9
Debt to GDP Ratio – Nov, 2020 74.4%

STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange closed strengthened for the week supported by MTN Ghana. The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) gained 11.14 points (0.51%) to close at 2,177.43 points reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 12.15%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE FI) on the other hand lost 1.09 points (-0.06%) following a price loss in Cal Bank PLC, to close at 1,873.31 points, reflecting YTD gain of 5.08%.

Market capitalization for the week was GH¢56,906.39, representing 0.21% gain from GH¢56,789.75 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects YTD gain of 4.66%.
A total of 1,847,424 shares, valued at GH¢1,752,701.18 changed hands for the week, compared with 16,027,304 shares, valued at GH¢13,587.29 in the preceding week.
MTN Ghana dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 61.12% and 51.53% of total volume and value of shares traded respectively.
The market closed the week with a lone price advancer and decliner respectively.
Price Movers for the Week
Equity Opening Price Closing Price Gain/Loss (%)
MTNGH 0.79 0.80 1.27%
Cal Bank PLC 0.81 0.80 -1.23%

Best & Worst Performing Stocks
Best 5 Performing Stocks: YTD Return
MTN Ghana Ltd. 25.00%
Cal Bank PLC 15.94%
Societe Generale Ghana PLC 14.06%
Standard Chartered Bank Gh. PLC 11.28%
GCB Bank Ltd. 11.11%

Worst 3 Performing Stocks:
Access Bank Ghana PLC -2.05
Aluworks Limited -9.09%
Unilever Ghana PLC -9.89%

CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi closed stronger against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢5.7586/$ on Friday, against GH¢5.7599/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.02% and 0.03% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD appreciation of 4.46% a year ago.
The Cedi on the other hand weakened against the GBP at week close. It traded at GH¢8.0727/£, compared with GH¢7.9605/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.39% and 2.46% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD appreciation of 6.13% a year ago.
The Cedi also weakened against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢6.9818/€, compared with GH¢6.9685/€ at week open, reflecting w/w depreciation and YTD appreciation of 0.19% and 1.18% respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD appreciation of 8.00% a year ago.
The Cedi further weakened against the CAD at close of week. It opened at GH¢4.5256/C$ but closed at GH¢4.5629/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.82% and 0.74% respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD appreciation of 6.79% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Currency Pair Year Open Week Open Week Close Change
% YTD
%
01-01-21 15-02-21 19-02-21
USD/GHS 5.7602 5.7599 5.7586 0.02 0.03
GBP/GHS 7.8742 7.9605 8.0727 -1.39 -2.46
EUR/GHS 7.0643 6.9685 6.9818 -0.19 1.18
CAD/GHS 4.5292 4.5256 4.5629 -0.82 -0.74
Source: Bank of Ghana

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢3,767.49 million for the week across the 91-Day and 182-Day Treasury Bills and a 2-Year Treasury Note. This compared with GH¢1,327.08 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day and 182-Day Bills shed 12bps and 1bp each to settle at 13.11% p.a and 13.95% p.a respectively. The 2-Year Note also shed 90bps to settle at 17.60% p.a.

Security Year
Open Previous Yield % Current Yield % WoW Chg (%) YTD Chg (%)
01-01-21 12-02-21 19-02-21
91 Day TB 14.10 13.23 13.11 -0.90 -6.97
182 Day TB 14.15 13.96 13.95 -0.10 -1.41
364 Day TB 16.96 16.86 16.86 0.00 -0.62
2-Yr FXR TN 18.50 18.50 17.60 -4.86 -4.86
3-Yr Bond 19.25 19.25 19.25 0.00 0.00
5-Yr Bond 19.85 19.85 19.85 0.00 0.00
6-Yr Bond 19.50 19.25 19.25 0.00 -8.33
7-Yr Bond 20.50 20.50 20.50 0.00 0.00
10-Yr Bond 19.80 19.80 19.80 0.00 0.00
15-Yr Bond 19.75 19.75 19.75 0.00 0.00
20-Yr Bond 20.20 20.20 20.20 0.00 0.00
Source: Bank of Ghana

COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices dropped on Thursday and Friday but tallied gains for the week . Brent futures traded at US$62.91 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w and YTD gains of 0.77% and 21.45% respectively.
Gold prices closed weaker for the week under pressure from higher U.S. Treasury yields. Gold futures settled at US$1,777.40 per ounce on Friday, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 2.51% and 6.21% respectively.
Prices of Cocoa recovered from the previous week’s slump. Cocoa futures settled at US$2,535.00 per tonne, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 1.28% and 2.61% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities Year Open Week Open Week Close Chg
% YTD
%
01-01-21 15-02-21 19-02-21
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl)
51.80
62.43 62.91
0.77
21.45

Gold (USD/t oz.)
1,895.10 1,823.20 1,777.40
-2.51
-6.21

Cocoa (USD/MT)
2,603.00 2,503.00 2,535.00
1.28
-2.61
Source: www.investing.com

BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Alpha: Alpha (?) is a term used in investing to describe an investment strategy's ability to beat the market, or it's "edge." Alpha is thus also often referred to as “excess return” or “abnormal rate of return,” which refers to the idea that markets are efficient, and so there is no way to systematically earn returns that exceed the broad market as a whole.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/alpha.asp

ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).

Disclaimer
The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.