The economic damage may have been been less catastrophic than feared in recent months, but the Bank of England thinks the scars will remain for longer, both to activity and jobs.
The Bank believes it will take the economy until the end of 2021 to get back to pre-crisis activity.
But that assumes a smooth recovery from here, and that the health risks from the virus and restrictions gradually recede, with no significant resumption of a widespread lockdown.
If not, there's a threat of a big setback for the economy.
What then? The key to our recovery is consumer spending - and the interest rates that might shape that are at record lows already.
Could we be heading into the uncharted territory of negative rates - where savers are effectively charged to deposit cash, to encourage them to spend rather than keep hold of the cash? For now, it seems unlikely.
The Bank has been taking a closer look at that tool and concludes it could be "less effective .
to stimulate the economy".
This is partly because those rates may not be passed on, but also as the idea of negative rates risks causing alarm about the health of the economy among consumers and businesses, rather than boosting confidence to spend.