Canadians see both challenges and opportunities ahead in their relations with the United States following the inauguration of Barack Obama as the new U.S. president.
The U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner with 80 percent of its total trade volume going to its southern neighbor. The country therefore is keenly interested in whatever steps Obama may take that could affect it.
Analysts here have pointed out that as the Democrats have tended to take more protectionist positions on trade, favoring barriers to foreign competitors, Canadians may face more difficulties in accessing the U.S. market, especially at a time of economic recession.
Moreover, Obama has vowed to reopen negotiations on the labor and environment standards of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), saying Canada and Mexico have failed to adopt related U.S. regulations. Obama's stance has caused widespread panic in Canada. Prime Minister Stephen Harper has warned Washington of "making a blunder" in reopening the talks.
Through NAFTA, Canada gains wide access to the U.S. market, and one could say the agreement constitutes the lifeline of Canada's foreign trade and even its whole economy. Canadians have always maintained that the agreement benefits all sides equally. Renewed talks and possibly a trade war are not what they want to see.
On the issue of security, Canada is not expecting any positive changes. After the 2001 terrorist attacks, the U.S. emphasis on security checks led to the "thickening" of border traffic, resulting in a 12-percent reduction in trade, according to a Canadian study. Analysts say Obama is most likely to keep the status quo.
Obama's stance on environment and energy may also spell trouble for Canada's vast treasure trove of oil wealth. Much more concerned about climate change, and fuels which result in high levels of greenhouse gas emissions, the president wants to cut these levels by 80 percent from 1990 levels in the next four decades and diversify from reliance on "dirty" oil such as that from Canada's oilsands. That will mean a reduced pace of development for these resources in Canada.
Afghanistan is also a concern for Canadians. Obama sees Afghanistan as the center of the anti-terror war and will need the help of allies to fulfill a plan to double troops there. Considering the two countries' military connections and special alliance, it is certain that the United States wants Canadian troops to remain in Afghanistan.
Yet the Canadian government has stated repeatedly it will pullout its forces in early 2011, a date set by the parliament. A further extension risks more outcry from the opposition parties and the public, most of whom reject Canada's mission in Afghanistan. This will certainly put Ottawa in a dilemma.
But Canadians have also found things to celebrate with the Democrats in power. Obama has pledged to lead a more diplomatic and multilateralist United States, which suggests Americans may consult Canada more often on foreign and continental policy, analysts say.
At the same time, a Democratic administration is often closer in spirit to Canada's Liberal-minded society, providing a stronger public basis for Ottawa to develop relations with Washington.
After all, a change in power on either side of the border has never led to major changes to bilateral relations, it has always been a strong, natural bond forged under the context of a similar history and cultural background.
Obama has decided to make Canada the destination of his first foreign trip, a long-time tradition of U.S. presidents since John F. Kennedy, except in 2004, when George W. Bush went to Mexico on his first foreign trip.
"The United States remains Canada's most important ally, closest friend and largest trading partner, and I look forward to working with President Obama and his administration as we build on this special relationship," Harper said in congratulating Obama on his inauguration.
"In all the great challenges that confront him, he will find no better friend, neighbour and ally than Canada and than Canadians," Harper said.