Who and how many? Wales await World Cup opponents

12th Dec 2024 | Source: BBC

Wales appointed ex-captain Craig Bellamy as head coach on a four-year contract in July

Wales will discover their World Cup qualifying opponents on Friday as the draw is made in Zurich at 11:00 GMT.

As well as finding out who will be standing between them and a place at the 2026 tournament in the United States, Canada and Mexico, Craig Bellamy’s side will also learn how many opponents they will face - as they could either be in a group of four or five teams.

Matches are due to be played between March and November 2025, with play-offs to follow in March 2026 if required.

Having had to wait 64 years between their first and most recent appearances at a World Cup, Wales are now aiming to qualify for the finals for a second time in succession.

BBC Sport Wales examines their potential routes to the World Cup.

Who could Wales face?

Among the second seeds based on their Fifa world ranking, Wales will be in Pot 2 for the draw – meaning one of their opponents will be a top seed from Pot 1, such as Spain, France or England.

As for the countries from Pots 3, 4 and 5, Wales do not yet know whether they will be in a group of four teams or five, due to changes organisers have made to the draw procedure.

After winning their Nations League group last month, Wales looked set to be in a five-team group, which would have seen them start their campaign in March.

And while that is still a distinct possibility, there is now also the chance they could be in a group of four, with matches not starting until September.

So Friday’s draw will be significant for Wales and their planning for next year, as it will reveal the number – as well as the identity – of teams they will face in World Cup qualifying.

How does qualifying work?

There are 16 World Cup places up for grabs for countries from Europe, an increase of three as the tournament expands from 32 to 48 teams overall.

The 12 group winners will qualify automatically, while the 12 runners-up will enter the play-offs along with the four highest-ranked Nations League group winners who have not qualified automatically.

Play-off matches will be played in single-leg semi-finals followed by single-leg finals within the same international window in March 2026.

Haven't Wales already effectively secured a play-off place?

Yes, Wales have all but guaranteed themselves at least a play-off, thanks to their efforts in the Nations League this year.

By winning Group B4 last month, Bellamy’s side not only secured an instant return to the top tier of the Nations League but also gave their World Cup qualification hopes a significant boost.

The 16 teams in the European World Cup play-offs will be comprised of the 12 group runners-up and the four highest-ranked Nations League group winners who have not qualified automatically.

Since group winners in League A - the likes of Spain, Germany and France - are almost certain to qualify automatically and will not require a play-off, those Nations League spots are likely to fall to League B winners, of which Wales are one.

So even if Bellamy's side fail to finish among the top two of their World Cup qualifying group, they are close to being guaranteed a play-off place.

That is a precious back-up option - one which has helped Wales in the past - but Bellamy has said the aim is to qualify automatically.