Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan has added four new faces to his revamped Cabinet in an effort to boost his all-time low popularity, push his financial agenda to tackle the nation's crippling debt and encourage free trade to increase economic growth.
But the new appointments and reassignment of members' existing portfolios, which were announced on Friday, came as no real surprise to political insiders. Some commentators maintain that the beleaguered prime minister, who has been backed into a political corner, has simply done what he had to do to appease a rising opposition bloc.
DOUBTS CAST OVER NEW CABINET APPOINTMENTS, RIFTS MAY WIDEN
The opposition-controlled upper house in November censured Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku and the transport minister and threatened to boycott debate on the 2011/12 budget in a session of parliament starting this month if they are not replaced.
"Kan had little choice but to replace Yoshito Sengoku due to him being censured last year by the opposition who threatened to boycott key parliamentary discussions and potentially bloc Kan's fiscal 2011 budget and other pertinent bills aimed at restoring the countries dismal financial circumstances," independent political analyst Teruhisa Muramatsu told Xinhua.
"But the problems are now twofold. Firstly, Japan's main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), are essentially calling the reshuffled Cabinet a farce in as much as it was supposed to smooth dialogue between the ruling Democrats and the opposition bloc, but key LDP members are saying that certain individuals will now hinder this process further," he said.
"Secondly, the introduction of former Administrative Reform Minister Yukio Edano as Kan's chief Cabinet secretary, while on the one hand may seem like a prudent strategy to improve multi- party talks, some feel that he may not be up to the job," Muramatsu said.
According to some political pundits, Edano's appointment as chief Cabinet secretary may lead to widening rifts within his own party as well as threaten to further alienate opposition parties, due to his infamously strong, straight-talking character.
"Edano's appointment as chief Cabinet secretary will make negotiations within the DPJ and with other parties difficult, given his strong character. He has many enemies even within the party and his appointment could risk deepening political confusion and risk stalling political negotiations on key issues," said Takeo Okuhara, a fund manager at Daiwa SB Investments.
Edano is also a vocal critic of the party's powerbroker and known wheeler-dealer Ichiro Ozawa and analysts note that his appointment could deepen a rift in the party over the former DPJ leader, who faces indictment over a funding scandal.
Edano has led campaigns against Ozawa before and after the kingmaker's failed leadership challenge against Kan four months ago and the veteran politician has come under growing pressure from his own party to resign over the scandal.
Ozawa, who maintains his innocence, however, holds sway over a sizable delegation of junior lawmakers in the lower house of parliament and his backers oppose a sales tax hike as well as the free trade deals which Kan actively wants to pursue, so leading political scientists are predicting a turbulent time ahead within the DPJ itself.
OPPOSITION SLAMS NEW CABINET, KEY ISSUES MAY STALL
LDP Vice President Tadamori Oshima has already slammed the prime minister saying that he "lacks the humility and sincerity to hold serious talks with the opposition camp", and harshly criticized the appointments of former Upper House President Satsuki Eda, former Finance Minister Kaoru Yosano and Edano in the new Cabinet.
Kaoru Yosano, a fiscal hawk who left the Sunrise Party of Japan Thursday, was picked as minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy, and social security reform, much to the chagrin of LDP Diet Affairs Committee Chairman Ichiro Aisawa who highlighted the fact that he won a lower house seat through proportional representation on the opposition party's ticket.
Aisawa was quoted as saying that Yosano joining the DPJ-led Cabinet represents an "act of betrayal", and that the LDP would pursue Kan and Yosano's "political responsibilities".
Yosano's appointment, based on his previous experience as finance minister and his advocating of the raising of the 5 percent sales tax, some say is a sign Kan is desperate to reverse social welfare costs and rein in the nation's monumental public debt.
Coupled with this, analysts say that Yosano will be charged with mediating the trade liberalization spat, which is highly sought-after by corporate Japan, but has drawn opposition from farm lobbies.
But with opposition parties able to block bills in the upper house of parliament and Kan's own DPJ divided over the sales tax hike and free trade initiatives, the new Cabinet may be somewhat ineffectual, some pundits maintain.
"Appointing Yosano would give an impression that Japan's fiscal and tax reform will progress, led by the finance ministry," said Akitsugu Bandou, a senior economist at Okasan Securities.
"But the government will continue to face a severe situation because of political deadlock, and the cabinet reshuffle is not necessarily going to change the situation that the DPJ lacks political power," Bandou said.
"Yosano's appointment will harden the LDP's stance on key issues as well, including TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and tax increases, while Yosano himself will likely lose popularity due to a lack of political consistency," noted another prominent analyst.
"I don't think the latest reshuffle will lead to a recovery in the Cabinet support rating," he added.
Indeed, some analysts are predicting a catastrophic loss for the ruling DPJ when it comes to the local elections in April and are going as far as saying the ruling coalition may even split due to Kan's indecisiveness as a leader, which has seen the prime minister U-turn on a number of key issues laid out in the party's manifesto, leading to support rates for Kan plummeting to all-time lows.
"The bigger picture is that they (the ruling party) will lose big time in the April (local) elections and that is when the knives will come out for (Prime Minister Naoto) Kan. That is when the party will split up. Flip-flopping from handing out money to people to raising taxes means the likelihood of a split has now increased. And it is not just power politics, it is a policy debate between those who want to increase the VAT and those who don't," said Jesper Koll, director of Equity Research at JP Morgan Securities.
"Bringing in Yosano, no matter how much expertise he has, is not going to reinforce the image of the Democrats as a party of change. Indeed, there is a chance that it could backfire," Koll said.