‘Sonic’ and ‘Mufasa’ Run a Close Race in Average Post-Christmas Box Office

31st Dec 2024 | Source: Yahoo

Led by a near-tie between two second weekend animated franchise films, then bolstered by two unusual wide Christmas day specialized-distributor releases, U.S./Canada theaters saw their best post-holiday grosses since 2019.

“Sonic the Hedgehog 3” (Paramount) and “Mufasa: The Lion King” (Disney) were less than $1 million apart for the three day lead, while #3 “Nosferatu” (Focus) and #6 “A Complete Unknown” (Searchlight) combined added a much needed $34 million to the total. Robert Eggers’ Dracula-esque take on the F.W. Murnau classic contributed over $21 million of that by itself.

The $165 million three day gross is a 45 percent improvement over last year, and, with two days left, will help lessen the 2024 shortfall from last year to 3.5 percent. But for all the positive signs this uptick suggests, the total falls below any unadjusted gross for the weekend since 2010, and in terms of attendance is one third or more less than that period and earlier.

The close race between the “Sonic” sequel and “Lion King” prequel is different by other gauges. Released five days prior to Christmas, “Mufasa” leads $64 million to $59 million. In international grosses (both films opened this week, with staggered dates), “Mufasa” proved a worthy racer against “Sonic,” earning $77 million to $74 million, though the latter still has some major markets to open.

The key comparison though is how both films did versus their first weekend. “Sonic” fell 37 percent, while “Mufasa” (not unusual for this weekend) was five percent better. That bodes well for the Disney title, which at a reported $200 million production cost was $80 million more expensive than “Sonic.” Worldwide “Mufasa” has $328 million in so far, “Sonic” $211.5 million. U.S./Canada though “Sonic” leads, $137 million to $113 million.

With $40.3 million already, “Nosferatu” is already Eggers’ biggest hit. The five day total is $10 million-$15 million better than projections, and its consistent strength so far belies a not so good B- Cinemascore. This was not a typical Christmas wide release, with its success likely to factor into future distributor choices for what can work here. It did well in part because of major interest from 18-34 year olds (65 percent of its tickets) when there wasn’t a lot of competition from other mostly more family-oriented titles. The film cost around $50 million, below what his earlier “The Northman” did.

‘A Complete Unknown’©Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection

The reportedly somewhat more expensive “Unknown” also exceeded its around $15 million projection with $23 million so far. Reports from theaters suggest it is initially drawing an older audience, not surprising for a biopic about Bob Dylan. With its A Cinemascore, Timothée Chalamet’s proven draw, and significant Oscar and other awards nomination potential ahead, it is positioned to sustain a significant run ahead.

‘Babygirl’A24

The other two wide openers lagged far behind. #7 “Babygirl” (A24) with Nicole Kidman has done $7.2 million in five days. Its fate will be determined ahead, with again potential nomination boosts. A reported $20 million budget makes its early take so far more hopeful. “The Fire Inside” (Amazon MGM), #10, took in $4.3 million for five days, but fortunately only cost $12 million, and did get an A Cinemascore.

Two November-opening holdovers, “Wicked” (Universal) and “Moana 2”, got big holiday boosts. #4 and #5 respectively, they jumped 37 and 38 percent from last weekend. “Wicked” leads in domestic total so far, $424 million to $395 million, while worldwide “Moana” is ahead $883 million to $634 million. Of note: Universal is adding PVOD on Tuesday while the film is still thriving in theaters.

With perhaps “Unknown” in particular competing for the same audience, most limited specialized titles didn’t fare very well. Still decent in its second weekend, with three added theaters, is “The Brutalist” (A24) with $267,000 for three days in seven. Otherwise, far less promising.

“Better Man,” the well-reviewed inventive Robbie Williams biopic was a disaster in three prime theaters with only $18,000 in five days. Asif Kapadia’s “2073” (Neon) only managed $5,115 in two theaters. Pedro Almodovar’s “The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics) fell more than 50 percent despite the holiday with $50,000 in six theaters. The third weekends of “Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM), one of the most acclaimed films of the year, and “September 5” (Paramount) both struggled, “Nickel” faring better though with $32,000 in five theaters.

Among new platform openers, the Italian International Oscar contender “Vermiglio” (Sideshow/Janus) did best with $8,450 for five days in one New York theater.

Top 10

1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3 (Paramount) Week 2; Last weekend #1

$38,000,000 (-37%) in 3,769 (+8) theaters; PTA (per theater average): $10,082; Cumulative: $137,552,000

2. Mufasa: The Lion King (Disney) Week 2; Last weekend #2

$37,100,000 (+5%) in 4,100 theaters; PTA: $9,049; Cumulative: $113,500,000

3. Nosferatu (Focus) NEW – Cinemascore: B-; Metacritic: 78; Est. budget: $50 million

$21,150,000 in 2,992 theaters; PTA: $7,069; Cumulative: $40,304,000

4. Wicked (Universal) Week 6; Last weekend #3

$19,450,000 (+37%) in 3,177 (-119) theaters; PTA: $6,122; Cumulative: $424,230,000

5. Moana 2 (Disney) Week 5; Last weekend #4

$18,200,000 (+38%) in 3,410 (-190) theaters; PTA: $5,337; Cumulative: $394,600,000

6. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 73; Est. budget: $65 million

$11,600,000 in 2,835 theaters; PTA: $5,337; Cumulative: $23,200,000

7. Babygirl (A24) NEW – Cinemascore: B-; Metacritic: 81; Est. budget: $ 20 million

$4,392,000 in 2,115 theaters; PTA: $2,077; Cumulative: $7,240,000

8. Gladiator II (Paramount) Week 6; Last weekend #6; also on PVOD

$4,150,000 (-9%) in 1,865 (-532) theaters; PTA: $2,077; Cumulative: $163,100,000

9. Homestead (Angel) Week 2; Last weekend #5

$3,190,000 (-47%) in 1,769 (-117) theaters; PTA: $1,803; Cumulative: $12,897,000

10. The Fire Inside (Amazon MGM) NEW – Cinemascore: A; Metacritic: 79; Est. budget: $12 million

$2,031,000 in 2,000 theaters; PTA: $1,012; Cumulative: $4,331,000

Other specialized/independent titles

Films (limited, expansions of limited) are listed by week in release, starting with those opened this week; after the first three weeks, only films with grosses over $5,000 are listed. Metacritic scores and initial film festivals recorded when available.

OPENING (platform)

Better Man (Paramount) NEW – Metacritic: 78; Festivals include: Telluride 2024

(3 day) $18,000, (5 day) $35,000 in 3 theaters; PTA: (3 day) $6,000

Vermiglio (Sideshow/Janus) NEW – Metacritic:; Festivals include:

(3 day) $5,430, (5 day) $8,450 in 1 theater; PTA: (3 day): $5,430

Santos (Metrograph) NEW – Metacritic: 74; Festivals include: Cannes, Toronto 2024

$5,100 in 1 theaters; PTA: $5,100

2053 (Neon) NEW – Metacritic: 52

$5,115 in 2 theaters; PTA: $2,558

Bloody Axe Wound (IFC)

$45,000 in 237 theaters; PTA: $190

HOLDOVERS