The Bank of Ghana will today, 16th March 2026, begin its 129th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting to assess the direction of inflation and mounting global uncertainties that could influence the country’s monetary policy stance.

The three-day meeting will review developments in the economy before concluding with a press conference on March 18, where the Committee will announce its policy decision.

The meeting comes at a time when Ghana’s inflation outlook has improved significantly, but external risks—particularly geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are threatening to complicate the central bank’s policy calculations.

Inflation Falls Sharply

Data from the Ghana Statistical Service shows Ghana’s year-on-year inflation rate declined further to 3.3 percent in February 2026, down from 3.8 percent in January, and a sharp drop from 23.1 percent recorded in February 2025.

The latest figure marks the 14th consecutive monthly decline in inflation and the lowest level recorded since 2021, signaling strong progress in stabilizing prices after a prolonged period of high inflation.

The sustained disinflation has raised expectations among businesses and financial markets that the central bank could cut the policy rate again to support economic activity and reduce borrowing costs.

External Risks Could Complicate Rate Decisions

Despite the improving domestic outlook, policymakers are expected to approach the decision cautiously as geopolitical tensions escalate globally.

The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has increased uncertainty in global energy markets and triggered volatility in commodity prices.

For an import-dependent economy like Ghana, such developments pose significant risks to the inflation outlook. Rising oil prices could increase transportation and energy costs domestically, while disruptions to global supply chains could push up the prices of imported goods.

Any sharp increase in global fuel prices would also place pressure on Ghana’s exchange rate and import bill, potentially reversing some of the recent gains in inflation control.

Balancing Growth and Price Stability

The Monetary Policy Committee will therefore have to balance two competing objectives—supporting economic recovery while ensuring that inflation remains firmly under control.

A rate cut could ease credit conditions for businesses and households, but policymakers may remain cautious if global risks threaten to reintroduce inflationary pressures.

Analysts say the central bank is likely to closely monitor commodity prices, exchange rate movements, and global financial conditions before deciding whether to adjust the policy rate.

Markets Await Policy Signals

The outcome of the meeting will be closely watched by investors, businesses, and financial markets for signals about the central bank’s confidence in Ghana’s macroeconomic recovery.

With inflation now approaching historically low levels, the MPC’s decision will provide critical guidance on whether the central bank believes the disinflation trend is sustainable or if external shocks could still derail the progress made so far.