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Ghana’s sovereign credit rating has received a major boost, with Fitch Ratings upgrading the country’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to ‘B-’ from ‘Restricted Default’ (RD).
The outlook has been assigned as Stable, signalling growing international confidence in the country's macroeconomic recovery and debt restructuring progress.
In a statement issued on Monday, June 16, 2025, Fitch said the upgrade reflects Ghana’s successful efforts to normalise relations with a majority of its external commercial creditors, following the restructuring of $13.1 billion in Eurobond debt completed in October 2024. Only $2.6 billion in external debt remains unresolved, of which $700 million is classified as commercial debt. Fitch believes the risk of holdouts is low.
“Ghana ratified the memorandum of understanding on the restructuring of its bilateral official debt in January 2025, covering $5.1 billion,” the statement noted. The agency expects the full external debt restructuring to conclude by the end of 2025.
Despite fiscal slippage in the 2024 election year—with the primary deficit widening to 3.9% of GDP—Fitch projects gradual improvement under the new administration. The government is targeting a 1.5 per cent primary surplus in 2025, driven largely by reduced expenditure. Fitch forecasts a 0.5 per cent surplus in 2025 and 0.9% in 2026, alongside falling overall deficits.
Fitch also noted that foreign-currency debt service will remain manageable, forecast at 1.2 per cent of GDP ($1.2 billion) in 2025. Meanwhile, international reserves have risen to $6.8 billion and are expected to grow further, offering critical backing for Ghana’s ability to meet external obligations.
The agency highlighted that domestic debt service remains a pressure point, with interest payments projected at 3.6% of GDP in 2025. However, falling Treasury bill rates and anticipated re-opening of the T-bond market are expected to ease short-term liquidity constraints.
Ghana’s public debt is projected to fall to 60 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026, down from 72 per cent in 2024 and a peak of 93% in 2022, thanks to strong nominal GDP growth, cedi appreciation, and continued consolidation.
Inflation is expected to drop from 23 per cent in 2024 to 15 per cent in 2025 and 10% in 2026, aided by recent currency gains, a tight monetary policy stance, and easing food and fuel prices. The Bank of Ghana is projected to begin reducing its policy rate from July 2025.
Despite the challenges, Ghana’s economy has shown resilience, recording real GDP growth of 5.7 per cent in 2024, with projections of 4 per cent in 2025 and 4.5 per cent in 2026, driven by a rebound in agriculture and continued expansion in the industrial and services sectors.
Fitch assigned Ghana an Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Relevance Score of ‘5’ for political stability, rule of law, and institutional quality, acknowledging the country’s history of peaceful political transitions and moderate institutional capacity. However, the score also reflects persistent governance and corruption challenges that weigh on Ghana’s credit profile.
While the outlook is stable, Fitch cautioned that further downgrades could be triggered by renewed liquidity pressures, external shocks, or delays in fiscal reforms. Conversely, continued consolidation, reserve build-up, and strong debt servicing performance could result in an upgrade.
Ghana’s upgraded rating marks a significant milestone in its post-default recovery, offering the government improved credibility in international markets and potentially lowering the cost of borrowing in future engagements.
Fitch’s proprietary rating model and sovereign rating committee confirmed that no adjustments were made to the model’s outcome of ‘B-’, reinforcing the data-driven basis for the upgrade.
The new rating aligns Ghana’s Country Ceiling at ‘B-’, reflecting no significant constraints on foreign exchange access for private sector debt servicing. The rating places Ghana back on the global investment radar, albeit still within the highly speculative category.
