MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q3, 2023 Real GDP Growth |
2.0% |
Average Real GDP Growth for 2023 |
2.8% |
2024 Projected Real GDP Growth |
2.8% |
BoG Policy Rate |
30.0% |
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate |
29.64% |
Inflation for December, 2023 |
23.2% |
End Period Inflation Target – 2024 |
15.0% |
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Sep, 2023 |
2.5% |
2024 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) |
3.0% |
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Sep, 2023 |
567.3 |
Debt to GDP Ratio – Sep, 2023 |
66.4% |
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange closed higher for the second week on the back of price increases by 3 counters. The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) gained 17.94 points (+0.57%) to close the week at 3,172.43 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 1.35%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FI) also gained 2.79 points (+0.15%) to close the week at 1,910.16 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 0.45%.
Market capitalization increased by 0.26% to close the week at GH¢74,417.23 million, from GH¢74,222.16 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects a YTD gain of 0.71%.
The week recorded a total of 707,196 shares valued at GH¢1,898,286.89 changing hands, compared with 4,929,372 shares, valued at GH¢7,974,511.20 in the preceding week.
MTNGH dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 57.72% and 30.11% of shares traded respectively.
The market ended the week with 3 advancers and 1 laggard as indicated in the table below.
Price Movers for the Week |
|||
Equity |
Opening Price |
Closing Price |
Gain/Loss (%) |
GGBL |
4.04 |
4.44 |
?9.90% |
CAL |
0.45 |
0.48 |
?6.67% |
TOTAL |
9.00 |
9.50 |
?5.56% |
SCB |
17.55 |
17.53 |
?0.11% |
Source: Ghana Stock Exchange
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi depreciated marginally against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢11.9800/$, compared with GH¢11.9601/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.17% and 0.83% respectively. This compares with a loss of 20.59% a year ago.
The Cedi however declined against the GBP for the week. It traded at GH¢15.2566/£, compared with GH¢15.1589/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 0.64% and 0.81% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 22.91% a year ago.
The Cedi also edged lower against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢13.0186/€, compared with GH¢12.9829/€ at week open, reflecting w/w loss and YTD appreciation of 0.27% and 0.83% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 22.09% a year ago.
The Cedi retracted against the Canadian Dollar at week end. It opened at GH¢8.8495/C$ but closed at GH¢8.9053/C$, reflecting w/w loss and YTD gain of 0.63% and 1.19% respectively. This compares with a depreciation of 22.11% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates |
|||||
Currency Pair |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Change % |
YTD % |
|
01-01-24 |
22-01-24 |
26-01-24 |
|
|
USD/GHS |
11.8800 |
11.9601 |
11.9800 |
?0.17 |
?0.83 |
GBP/GHS |
15.1334 |
15.1589 |
15.2566 |
?0.64 |
?0.81 |
EUR/GHS |
13.1264 |
12.9829 |
13.0186 |
?0.27 |
?0.83 |
CAD/GHS |
9.0112 |
8.8495 |
8.9053 |
?0.63 |
?1.19 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢5,495.86 million for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364-Day Treasury Bills. This compared with GH¢5,270.38 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day Bill settled at 28.59% p.a. from 28.88% p.a. last week whilst the 182-Day Bill settled at 31.10% p.a. from 31.40% p.a. last week. The 364-Day Bill settled at 31.80% p.a. from 32.00% p.a. last week.
The tables below highlight primary market activity at close of the week.
Security |
Year Open |
Previous Yield % |
Current Yield % |
WoW Chg (%) |
YTD Chg (%) |
|
01-01-24 |
23-01-24 |
26-01-24 |
|
|
91 Day TB |
29.24 |
28.88 |
28.59 |
?1.02 |
?2.22 |
182 Day TB |
31.88 |
31.40 |
31.10 |
?0.95 |
?2.46 |
364 Day TB |
32.49 |
32.00 |
31.80 |
?0.62 |
?2.12 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
The Ghana Market Summary |
|||
|
Current |
Previous |
Change |
Bid (GH¢' M) |
5,495.86 |
5,270.38 |
?4.28% |
Issuance (GH¢' M) |
5,606.92 |
5,270.38 |
?6.39% |
Target (GH¢' M) |
2,532 |
3,058 |
?17.20% |
Maturity (GH¢' M) |
2,226.75 |
2,793.29 |
?20.28% |
Target coverage ratio |
2.21 |
1.72 |
na |
Maturity coverage ratio |
2.52 |
1.89 |
na |
Bid / Cover ratio |
0.98 |
1.00 |
na |
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices rose for a second week in a row and settled at their highest in nearly two months as positive U.S. economic growth and signs of Chinese stimulus boosted demand expectations. Brent futures traded at US$83.55 a barrel, compared to US$78.56 at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 6.35% and 8.45% respectively.
Gold prices advanced, tracking mild weakness in the dollar as traders hunkered down before a slew of key U.S. economic readings for the week. Gold settled at US$2,036.10, from US$2,029.30 last week, reflecting w/w gain and YTD depreciation of 0.34% and 1.72% respectively.
The price of Cocoa rose for the week. Cocoa traded at US$4,672.00 per tonne on Friday, from US$4,583.00 last week, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 1.94% and 11.34% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Chg % |
YTD % |
|
01-01-24 |
22-01-24 |
26-01-24 |
|
|
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) |
77.04 |
78.56 |
83.55 |
?6.35 |
?8.45 |
Gold (USD/t oz.) |
2,071.80 |
2,029.30 |
2,036.10 |
?0.34 |
?1.72 |
Cocoa (USD/MT) |
4,196.00 |
4,583.00 |
4,672.00 |
?1.94 |
?11.34 |
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Disinflation: Disinflation is used to describe the slowing of price inflation. In other words, it is a decrease in the rate of inflation.
Source:
https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/disinflation/
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
RESEARCH TEAM
Name: Ernest Tannor
Email: etannor@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 881 8957
Name: Moses Nana Osei-Yeboah
Email: moyeboah@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 24 499 0069
Name: Julian Sapara-Grant
Email: jsgrant@cidaninvestments.com
Tel: +233 (0) 20 821 2079
CORPORATE INFORMATION
CIDAN Investments Limited
CIDAN House
House No. 261
Haatso, North Legon – Accra
Tel: +233 (0) 27 690 0011/ 55 989 9935
Fax : +233 (0)30 254 4351
Email : info@cidaninvestments.com
Website : www.cidaninvestments.com
Disclaimer: The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its