One certainty for the ongoing 2022/23 season is the occurrence of a supply deficit, although compared to the 2021/22 season, the 2022/23 global production is projected to increase by 3.4% to 4.980 million tonnes. Grindings are expected to rise by 1.5% to 5.072 million tonnes.

Although a positive growth in cocoa production is underway for the season under review, yields are likely to be impacted by the weather such as the looming El Niño as well as other factors including diseases, fertilizer inputs, husbandry practices among others.

With regards to the increase in cocoa grindings, the commentary of the Bulletin highlights the recent efforts by top producing countries to move towards the downstream products instead of exporting raw cocoa beans. Indeed, cocoa processing has held up well at origin and this may have caused unintended adverse consequences such as low exports of cocoa beans from top producing countries to importing countries.

Another market development pointed out in the Bulletin is the build-up of cocoa inventories at the exchange, despite the assurance of a supply deficit for the 2022/23 season. Certain [BGB1] possibilities alluded to the relatively high level of stocks at the exchange are mentioned.

A review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the January-March quarter of 2023 is also presented.