MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q3, 2022 Real GDP Growth |
2.9% |
Average Real GDP Growth for 2022 |
3.5% |
2023 Projected Real GDP Growth |
2.8% |
BoG Policy Rate |
29.50% |
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate |
25.87% |
Inflation for Feb, 2023 |
52.8% |
End Period Inflation Target – 2023 |
18.9% |
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Nov, 2022 |
9.8% |
2022 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) |
6.6% |
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Nov, 2022 |
575.7 |
Debt to GDP Ratio – Nov, 2022 |
93.5% |
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange closed lower for the week on the back of price decreases by 4 counters. The GSE Composite Index (GSE-CI) lost 57.63 points (-2.06%) to close the week at 2,745.33 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 12.33%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE-FI) also lost 4.23 points (-0.23%) for the week closing at 1,806.67 points, reflecting a YTD loss of 11.98%.
Market capitalization decreased by 0.78% to close the week at GH¢67,846.89 million, from GH¢68,382.45 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects a YTD gain of 5.18%.
The week witnessed a total of 3,009,540 shares valued at GH¢7,094,944.22 changing hands, compared with 162,642,512 shares, valued at GH¢149,027,836.40 in the preceding week.
MTN dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 91.20% and 49.42% of shares traded respectively.
The market ended the week with 3 advancers and 4 laggards as indicated on the table below.
Price Movers for the Week |
|||
Equity |
Opening Price |
Closing Price |
Gain/Loss (%) |
UNIL |
3.6 |
4 |
?11.11% |
BOPP |
10.61 |
11.67 |
?9.99% |
TBL |
0.8 |
0.82 |
?2.50% |
FML |
1.5 |
1.29 |
?14.00% |
SOGEGH |
0.66 |
0.62 |
?6.06% |
MTNGH |
1.3 |
1.25 |
?3.85% |
GLD |
234.07 |
233 |
?0.46% |
Source: Ghana Stock Exchange
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi appreciated marginally against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢11.0137/$, compared with GH¢11.0143/$ at week open, reflecting w/w gain and YTD depreciation of 0.005% and 22.13% respectively. This compares with YTD loss of 15.55% a year ago.
The Cedi retreated against the GBP for the week. It traded at GH¢13.6218/£, compared with GH¢13.4678/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.13% and 24.30% respectively. This compares with YTD depreciation of 12.81% a year ago.
The Cedi also weakened against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢11.9657/€, compared with GH¢11.8429/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 1.03% and 23.57% respectively. This compares with YTD loss of 13.03% a year ago.
The Cedi again depreciated against the Canadian Dollar at week close. It opened at GH¢7.9928/C$ but closed at GH¢8.1407/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciationS of 1.82% and 22.34% respectively. This compares with YTD depreciation of 16.62% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates |
|||||
Currency Pair |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Change % |
YTD % |
|
01-01-22 |
27-03-23 |
31-03-23 |
|
|
USD/GHS |
8.5760 |
11.0143 |
11.0137 |
?0.005 |
?22.13 |
GBP/GHS |
10.3118 |
13.4678 |
13.6218 |
?1.13 |
?24.30 |
EUR/GHS |
9.1457 |
11.8429 |
11.9657 |
?1.03 |
?23.57 |
CAD/GHS |
6.3222 |
7.9928 |
8.1407 |
?1.82 |
?22.34 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢1,599.27 million for the week across the 91-Day and 182-Day Treasury Bills. This compared with GH¢2,441.40 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day Bill settled at 19.39% p.a from 18.88% p.a. last week whilst the 182-Day Bill settled at 21.86% p.a from 21.44% p.a. last week.
The tables below highlight primary market activity at close of the week.
Security |
Year Open |
Previous Yield % |
Current Yield % |
WoW Chg (%) |
YTD Chg (%) |
|
01-01-23 |
27-03-23 |
31-03-23 |
|
|
91 Day TB |
35.36 |
18.88 |
19.39 |
?2.70 |
?45.17 |
182 Day TB |
35.98 |
21.44 |
21.86 |
?1.95 |
?39.25 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
The Ghana Market Summary |
|||
|
Current |
Previous |
Change |
Bid (GH¢' M) |
1,624.84 |
2,441.89 |
?33.46% |
Issuance (GH¢' M) |
1,599.27 |
2,441.40 |
?34.49% |
Target (GH¢' M) |
1,338 |
3,206 |
?58.27% |
Maturity (GH¢' M) |
1,277.04 |
1,878.51 |
?32.02% |
Target coverage ratio |
1.20 |
0.76 |
na |
Maturity coverage ratio |
1.25 |
1.30 |
na |
Bid / Cover ratio |
1.02 |
1.00 |
na |
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices surged after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ producers announced a surprise cut in their output target. Brent futures traded at US$79.77 a barrel, compared to US$74.99 at week open, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 6.37% and 7.15% respectively.
Gold prices fell as easing fears of a banking crisis sapped the gold metal of safe haven demand, while the dollar also recovered amid a resurgence in bets that the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates. Gold settled at US$1,969.00, from US$2,001.70 last week, reflecting w/w loss and YTD appreciation of 1.63% and 7.82% respectively.
The price of Cocoa recorded an increase for the week. Cocoa traded at US$2,933.00 per tonne on Friday, from US$2,884.00 last week, reflecting w/w and YTD gains of 1.70% and 12.81% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Chg % |
YTD % |
|
01-01-23 |
27-03-23 |
31-03-23 |
|
|
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) |
85.91 |
74.99 |
79.77 |
?6.37 |
?7.15 |
Gold (USD/t oz.) |
1,826.20 |
2,001.70 |
1,969.00 |
?1.63 |
?7.82 |
Cocoa (USD/MT) |
2,600.00 |
2,884.00 |
2,933.00 |
?1.70 |
?12.81 |
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Contribution Margin: A black swan event, is an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict. In other words, black swan events are events that are unexpected and unknowable.
Source: https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/economics/black-swan-event/
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
RESEARCH TEAM
Name: Ernest Tannor
Email:etannor@cidaninvestments.com
Tel:+233 (0) 20 881 8957
Name: Moses Nana Osei-Yeboah
Email:moyeboah@cidaninvestments.com
Tel:+233 (0) 24 499 0069
CORPORATE INFORMATION
CIDAN Investments Limited
CIDAN House
Plot No. 169 Block 6
Haatso, North Legon – Accra
Tel: +233 (0) 26171 7001/ 26 300 3917
Fax: +233 (0)30 254 4351
Email: info@cidaninvestmens.com
Website: www.cidaninvestments.com
DisclaimerThe contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its