MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q3, 2021 GDP Growth |
6.6% |
Average GDP Growth for 2021 |
4.5% |
2021 Projected GDP Growth |
5.0% |
BoG Policy Rate |
14.50% |
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate |
12.63% |
Inflation for November, 2021 |
12.20% |
End Period Inflation Target – 2021 |
8.0% |
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Sep, 2021 |
7.7% |
2021 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) |
9.5% |
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Sep, 2021 |
341.8 |
Debt to GDP Ratio – Sep, 2021 |
77.8% |
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange moderated for the opening week of the year. The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) lost 46.97 points (-1.68%) to close at 2,742.36 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) loss of 1.68%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE FI) remained flat at 2,151.85 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 0.00%.
Market capitalization at the end of the week was GH¢64,007.49 million, representing a drop of 0.46% from GH¢64,792.47 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects YTD decrease of 0.76%.
Trading activity saw a total of 25,055,278 shares valued at GH¢26,515,940 changing hands for the week compared with 5,081,846 shares, valued at GH¢6,716,737.26 in the preceding week.
MTN dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 99.04% and 99.64% respectively of total shares traded.
The market closed the week with no price gainers and 1 decliner as indicated on the table below.
Price Movers for the Week |
|||
Equity |
Opening Price |
Closing Price |
Gain/Loss (%) |
Scancom PLC |
1.11 |
1.07 |
3.60 |
Worst Performing Stocks: |
YTD Return |
MTNGH |
-3.60% |
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi recorded no change against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢6.0064/$ on Friday, compared to GH¢6.0061/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.00% and 0.00% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 0.01% a year ago.
The Cedi recorded marginal gains against the GBP for the week as it traded at GH¢8.1272/£, compared with GH¢8.1320/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.02% and 0.02% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD depreciation of 0.76% a year ago.
The Cedi also posted gains against the Euro for the week. It traded at GH¢6.7939/€, compared with GH¢6.8281/€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.50% each respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD depreciation of 0.22% a year ago.
The Cedi again appreciated on the week as it opened at GH¢4.7416/C$ but closed at GH¢4.7065/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.75% each respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 0.11% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates |
|||||
Currency Pair |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
W/W Chg% |
YTD Chg% |
|
01/01/21 |
04/01/22 |
07/01/22 |
|
|
USD/GHS |
6.0061 |
6.0061 |
6.0064 |
?0.00 |
?0.00 |
GBP/GHS |
8.1272 |
8.1272 |
8.1258 |
?0.02 |
?0.02 |
EUR/GHS |
6.8281 |
6.8281 |
6.7939 |
?0.50 |
?0.50 |
CAD/GHS |
4.7416 |
4.7416 |
4.7065 |
?0.75 |
?0.75 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢982.73 million for the week across the 91-Day and 182-Day Treasury bills, compared to GH¢1,476.02 million raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day bill lost 1bp to close at 12.52% p.a. from 12.53% p.a. last week. The 182-Day bill also lost 1bp to settle at 13.20% p.a. from 13.21% p.a last week.
The table and graph below highlight primary market yields at close of the week.
Security |
Year Open |
Previous Yield % |
Current Yield % |
WoW Chg (%) |
YTD Chg (%) |
|
01/01/21 |
31/12/21 |
07/01/22 |
|
|
91 Day TB |
14.10 |
12.53 |
12.52 |
-0.01 |
-11.14 |
182 Day TB |
14.15 |
13.21 |
13.20 |
-0.10 |
-6.73 |
364 Day TB |
16.96 |
16.64 |
16.64 |
0.00 |
-1.89 |
2-Yr FXR TN |
18.50 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
6.76 |
3-Yr Bond |
19.25 |
20.50 |
20.50 |
0.00 |
6.49 |
5-Yr Bond |
19.85 |
21.00 |
21.00 |
0.00 |
5.79 |
6-Yr Bond |
19.50 |
18.80 |
18.80 |
0.00 |
-3.59 |
7-Yr Bond |
20.50 |
18.10 |
18.10 |
0.00 |
-11.71 |
10-Yr Bond |
19.80 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
-0.25 |
15-Yr Bond |
19.75 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
20-Yr Bond |
20.20 |
20.20 |
20.20 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil rose for a third straight week as demand remained resilient, while supplies are frayed across the OPEC+ coalition and beyond. Brent futures traded at US$81.75 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w and YTD gain of 3.51% and 50.10%
Gold settled at just under the crucial $1,800 an ounce level after a modest bounce on Friday, despite losing almost 2% on the week for its biggest weekly decline since November resulting from rising U.S. Treasury yields. Gold prices settled at US$1,797.40 per ounce on Friday from US$1,828.60 last week, reflecting w/w and YTD losses of 0.15% and 1.71% respectively
Prices of Cocoa went up as the commodity traded at US$2,521.00 per tonne on Friday, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciation of 0.88% and 0.04% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
W/W Chg% |
YTD Chg% |
|
01/01/22 |
03/01/22 |
07/01/22 |
|
|
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) |
77.78 |
77.78 |
81.75 |
5.10 |
5.10 |
Gold (USD/t oz.) |
1,828.60 |
1,828.60 |
1,797.40 |
-1.71 |
-1.71 |
Cocoa (USD/MT) |
2,520.00 |
2,520.00 |
2,521.00 |
0.04 |
0.04 |
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Shadow Market: A shadow market is an unregulated (or less regulated) private market where goods and services are exchanged with little or no oversight.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shadow-market.asp
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
RESEARCH TEAM
Name: Ernest Tannor
Email:etannor@cidaninvestments.com
Tel:+233 (0) 20 881 8957
Name: Audrey Asiedua Wiafe
Email:aaudrey@cidaninvestments.com
Tel:+233 (0) 57 840 2700
Name: Moses Nana Osei-Yeboah
Email:moyeboah@cidaninvestments.com
Tel:+233 (0) 24 499 0069
CORPORATE INFORMATION
CIDAN Investments Limited
CIDAN House
Plot No. 169 Block 6
Haatso, North Legon – Accra
Tel: +233 (0) 26171 7001/ 26 300 3917
Fax: +233 (0)30 254 4351
Email: info@cidaninvestmens.com
Website: www.cidaninvestments.com
Disclaimer
The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.