MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q2, 2021 GDP Growth |
3.9% |
Average GDP Growth for 2021 |
3.5% |
2021 Projected GDP Growth |
5.0% |
BoG Policy Rate |
14.50% |
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate |
12.63% |
Inflation for October, 2021 |
11.00% |
End Period Inflation Target – 2021 |
8.0% |
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Sep, 2021 |
7.7% |
2021 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) |
9.5% |
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Sep, 2021 |
341.8 |
Debt to GDP Ratio – Sep, 2021 |
77.8% |
STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The Ghana Stock Exchange dropped for the fourth consecutive week on the back of declines by 5 counters. The GSE Composite Index (GSE CI) dropped 32.06 points (-1.13%) to close at 2,810.01 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 44.73%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE FI) also lost 15.57 points (-0.75%) to close at 2,073.63 points, reflecting a year-to-date (YTD) gain of 16.32%.
Market capitalization at the end of the week was GH¢ 63,884.16 million, representing a decrease of 0.52% from GH¢ 64,219.71 million at the close of the previous week. This reflects YTD increase of 17.49%.
Trading activity increased sharply for the week, relative to activity in the prior week. A total of 12,288,656 shares valued at GH¢17,271,141.61 changed hands for the week compared with 1,245,224 shares, valued at GH¢1,340,496.07 in the preceding week.
MTN dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 82.63% and 68.19% respectively of total shares traded.
The market closed the week with no price gainer and 5 decliners as indicated on the table below.
Price Movers for the Week |
|||
Equity |
Opening Price |
Closing Price |
Gain/Loss (%) |
Standard Chartered Bank Gh. Ltd. |
20.35 |
20.3 |
? 0.25 |
Cal Bank PLC |
0.85 |
0.84 |
? 1.18 |
Societe Generale Ghana PLC |
1.20 |
1.18 |
? 1.67 |
Scancom PLC |
1.18 |
1.16 |
? 1.69 |
Ecobank Ghana Ltd. |
7.80 |
7.6 |
? 2.56 |
4
CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi continued its downward trend against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢5.9314/$ on Friday, compared to GH¢5.9182/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.22% and 2.89% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 3.16% a year ago.
The Cedi however appreciated against the GBP for the week as it traded at GH¢7.8428/£, compared with GH¢7.8792/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.46% and 0.40% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD depreciation of 3.14% a year ago.
The Cedi gained some grounds against the Euro for the week as it traded at GH¢6.7013/€, compared with GH¢6.7103 /€ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD appreciations of 0.14% and 5.42% respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD depreciation of 10.25% a year ago.
Against the CAD, the Cedi depreciated on the week as it opened at GH¢4.6208 /C$ but closed at GH¢4.6635/C$, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.92% and 2.88% respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 4.66% a year ago.
Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates |
|||||
Currency Pair |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Change % |
YTD % |
01/01/21 |
06/12/21 |
10/12/21 |
|||
USD/GHS |
5.7602 |
5.9182 |
5.9314 |
?0.22 |
?2.89 |
GBP/GHS |
7.8742 |
7.8792 |
7.8428 |
?0.46 |
?0.40 |
EUR/GHS |
7.0643 |
6.7103 |
6.7013 |
?0.14 |
?5.42 |
CAD/GHS |
4.5292 |
4.6208 |
4.6635 |
?0.92 |
?2.88 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢780.83 million for the week across the 91-Day, 182-Day and 364 Day Treasury Bills, compared to GH¢2,758.85 billion raised in the previous week.
The 91-Day Bill shed 3bps to close at 12.47% p.a compared to 12.50% p.a recorded last week. The 182-Day Bill gained 2bps to settle at 13.19% p.a. from 13.17% p.a last week whiles the 365-Day settled at 16.36% p.a from 16.30% p.a. last week.
The table and graph below highlight primary market yields at close of the week.
Security |
Year Open |
Previous Yield % |
Current Yield % |
WoW Chg (%) |
YTD Chg (%) |
|
01/01/21 |
02/12/21 |
10/12/21 |
|
|
91 Day TB |
14.10 |
12.50 |
12.47 |
-0.24 |
-11.52 |
182 Day TB |
14.15 |
13.17 |
13.19 |
0.19 |
-6.75 |
364 Day TB |
16.96 |
16.30 |
16.36 |
0.36 |
-3.55 |
2-Yr FXR TN |
18.50 |
20.00 |
19.75 |
-1.25 |
6.76 |
3-Yr Bond |
19.25 |
19.00 |
19.00 |
0.00 |
-1.30 |
5-Yr Bond |
19.85 |
18.80 |
18.80 |
0.00 |
-5.29 |
6-Yr Bond |
19.50 |
18.80 |
18.80 |
0.00 |
-3.59 |
7-Yr Bond |
20.50 |
18.10 |
18.10 |
0.00 |
-11.71 |
10-Yr Bond |
19.80 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
-0.25 |
15-Yr Bond |
19.75 |
19.75 |
19.75 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
20-Yr Bond |
20.20 |
20.20 |
20.20 |
0.00 |
0.00 |
Source: Bank of Ghana
COMMODITY MARKET
Oil prices rose on Friday and posted its biggest weekly gain since late August, as market sentiment buoyed by easing concerns over the Omicron coronavirus variant's impact on global economic growth and fuel demand. Brent futures traded at US$75.15 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w and YTD gain of 7.54% and 45.08% respectively.
Gold prices settled at US$1,784.80 per ounce on Friday, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 0.05% and 5.82% respectively. The commodity was helped by a high U.S. inflation rate.
Prices of Cocoa went up as the commodity traded at US$2,462.00 per tonne on Friday, reflecting w/w appreciation and YTD losses of 1.11% and 5.42% respectively.
International Commodity Prices
Commodities |
Year Open |
Week Open |
Week Close |
Chg % |
YTD % |
|
01/01/20 |
06/12/21 |
10/12/21 |
|
|
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) |
51.80 |
69.88 |
75.15 |
?7.54 |
?45.08 |
Gold (USD/t oz.) |
1,895.10 |
1,783.90 |
1,784.80 |
?0.05 |
?5.82 |
Cocoa (USD/MT) |
2,603.00 |
2,435.00 |
2,462.00 |
?1.11 |
?5.42 |
Source: www.investing.com
BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Tapering: Tapering refers to policies that modify traditional central bank activities. Tapering efforts are primarily aimed at interest rates and at controlling investor perceptions of the future direction of interest rates. Tapering efforts may include changing the discount rate or reserve requirements.
Tapering may also involve the slowing of asset purchases, which, theoretically, leads to the reversal of quantitative easing (QE) policies implemented by a central bank. Tapering is instituted after QE policies have accomplished the desired effect of stimulating and stabilizing the economy.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tapering.asp
ABOUT CIDAN
CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).
Disclaimer
The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.