Weekly Highlights

Ghana’s economy grew by 3.1 percent in the 1st quarter of 2021
Yields on 91-Day and 182-Day T-Bills moderated.
Accra Bourse tumbled on profit taking activities.
Ghana cedi advanced against the three major trading currencies.
Wall Street headed southwards on account of Fed’s decision to alter its policy rate, sooner-than-expected.
Brent crude oil went down on investor uncertainties.

Macroeconomic Update

Ghana’s economy grew at 3.1 percent at 1st quarter of 2021

Ghana’s economy is on the path of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic threat, as it posted another round of positive economic growth. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was estimated at 3.1 percent at the end of the 1st quarter of 2021, from a previous growth rate of 3.3 percent (4th quarter 2020). Economic activities were largely driven by the Services sector, which accounted for about half the value of activities produced within the quarter. Out of the nominal value of GHS113,469.60 million of goods and services produced within the quarter, the Services sector accounted for 53.3 percent. This was followed by the Industrial sector, which accounted for 24.8 percent, with the Agricultural sector contributing 22.0 percent. Despite this, the Agricultural sector continues to be the fast-growing sector since the 2nd quarter of 2020. It recorded 4.3 percent growth for the 1st quarter of 2021. This was keenly followed by the Services sector, which grew by 4.0 percent. Industry sector was the least growing sector with a growth rate of 1.3 percent. Following this pace of growth and commitment by Government to foster economic recovery, the growth projection of 5.3 percent for 2021 is likely to be achieved by end of year. Illustrated below is the trend analysis of quarterly growth rate since 2017.

Key Ghana Economic Data

Indicator
2018
2019
2020
2021
2021

Target
Actual
Inflation CPI (y-o-y %)
9.40
7.90
10.40
8.00
8.50
Inflation PPI (y-o-y %)
4.40
13.00
7.00
n/a
11.10
Monetary Policy Rate (%)
17.0
16.00
14.50
n/a
13.50
GDP Growth (y-o-y %)
6.3
6.5
0.4
5.00
3.1
Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
3.8
4.5Sep
11.7
9.50
2.6 Q1
Public Debt (% ofGDP)
57.6
63.00
68.3
n/a
n/a
Fx. Reserves (M. Cover)
3.7
4.1
4.1
4.00
n/a
Source: BOG; MOFEP; GSS.

Government of Ghana Treasury Securities

Treasury Bills, Notes & Bonds (%)
Date
91-Day
182-day
364-day
2-Yr
3-Yr
5-Yr
Jun 21 – 25
12.63
13.39
16.34
17.60
17.70
18.30
Jun 14 – 18
12.64
13.42
16.34
17.60
17.70
18.30
Jun 07 – 11
12.71
13.43
16.49
17.60
17.70
18.30
2021 Yr. Open
14.09
14.12
17.00
18.50
19.25
19.85
NB: The above are the annual yields on Government of Ghana Treasury Securities.

Yields on the short-dated treasury securities recorded moderation at the week’s auction. The yield on the 91-Day T-Bill shed a basis point to settle at 12.63 percent. That on the 182-Day T-Bill also fell by 3 basis points to 13.39 percent. The yield on the 364-Day T-Bill was unchanged at 16.34 percent as it was not part of the week’s issuance.

Results of Auction held on 18th June, 2021

Bill
Bids Tendered GHS (Million)
Bids Accepted GHS (Million)
Interest Rate (%)
91-Day T-Bill
1,048.93
1,048.93
12.6269
182-Day T-Bill
175.39
175.39
13.3896

Government accepted all the GHS1,224.32 million worth of bids tendered by investors at the week’s auction. This was more than the week’s target of GHS1,175.00 million, with the 91-Day T-Bill dominating Government’s purchase by 85.67 percent. Government hopes to raise a total of GHS1,216.00 million worth of bids at the next auction scheduled on the 25th of June 2021.

Illustrated above is the term structure of the Government of Ghana’s treasury securities. This sustained its normality but with downward movements at the left tailed end of the curve following the rate cut observed on the short-dated treasury securities. The persisting moderation in interest rates, coupled with the recent policy rate cut amidst signs of economic recovery as observed in the 4th quarter of 2020 and 1st quarter of 2021, is needed for creating an enabling environment for private sector investors.

Ghana Stock Exchange

Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) Indices (YTD %)
Year
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
GSE-CI
52.73
-0.29
-12.25
-13.98
36.27
GSE-FSI
49.51
-6.79
-6.23
-11.73
5.61

Trading on the Ghana Stock Exchange tumbled as equity indices trimmed their year-to-date returns, following selloffs in some blue-chip stocks. At the end of the week’s trading the GSE Composite Index went down by 2.48 basis points to settle at an index level of 2,301.79 points, corresponding to a reduced year-to-date return of 36.27 percent. The GSE Financial Stocks Index also posted a week-on-week loss of 0.72 percent, as it fell to 1,882.83 points. This reflects a year-to-date return of 5.61 percent.

GSE Market Indicators

Wk. Open
Wk. End
Change (%)
Total Volume Traded (M)
16.47
7.73
-53.05
Total Value Traded (GHS M)
24.22
9.27
-61.74
Market Cap (GHS M)
62,223.95
61,520.05
-1.13

A total of 7.73 million shares worth GHS9.27 million exchanged hands in sixteen equities. This represents 53.05 percent decline over the previous week’s outturn in terms of traded volume. MTN Ghana Ltd dominated the activity chart in both volume and value of 58.61 percent and 59.73 percent, respectively. Following the bearish closure of the market, market capitalization went down by 1.13 percent to settle at GHS61,520.05 million.

Stock Price Movements

On the mover’s chart, a total of six (6) stocks altered their share prices; two (2) advancers and four (4) laggards. Benso Oil Plam Plantation Ltd topped the advancers with 4 pesewas gain to close the week’s trade at GHS2.15 per share. Total Petroleum Ltd also had its share prices rising by 2 pesewas to close at GHS3.42 per share.

Stock Price Advancers in terms of WK closing prices
Equity
Yr. Open
Wk. Open
Wk. End
Wk. Change (GHS)
YTD (%)
BOPP
2.00
2.11
2.15
0.04
7.50
TOTAL
2.83
3.40
3.42
0.02
20.85

On the flip side of the mover’s chart, Access Bank Ltd was the worst performer in the week’s trading, after losing 38 pesewas to close at GHS3.49 per share. Unilever Ghana Ltd keenly followed with 23 pesewas decline to trade at GHS3.07 per share. MTN Ghana Ltd and CAL Bank Ltd also suffered losses of 5 pesewas and 2 pesewas to finish the week’s trading at GHS1.20 and 0.71 per share, respectively.

Stock Price Laggards in terms of WK closing prices
Equity
Yr. Open
Wk. Open
Wk. End
Wk. Change (GHS)
YTD (%)
ACCESS
4.39
3.87
3.49
-0.38
-20.50
MTNGH
0.64
1.25
1.20
-0.05
87.50
UNIL
8.29
3.30
3.07
-0.23
-62.97
CAL
0.69
0.73
0.71
-0.02
2.90

Currency Market
Currency
Buying
Selling
Currency
Buying
Selling
USD
5.7483
5.7541
CAD
4.6186
4.6230
GBP
7.9407
7.9493
CFA
96.0757
96.1701
EUR
6.8208
6.8275
JPY
0.0521
0.0522
AUD
4.3094
4.3149
ZAR
0.4023
0.4027
NGN
71.2390
71.3642
CNY
0.8915
0.8923
Source: Bank of Ghana 18.05.2021

On the interbank currency market, the Ghana cedi advanced against all the three major trading currencies as it benefitted from the regular domestic supply boost initiative adopted by Government to halt extensive free-fall of the local currency. The US dollar suffered from the unwillingness of the US Fed to lift its interest rate from the “nearly” zero percent, despite recent economic recovery signs in the world’s largest economy. Rising inflation, improved labour market statistics coupled with better-than-expected consumer and producer activities, were not enough to alter the monetary policy stance of the Bank, as it described such indicators as “transitory factors”. The US dollar thus, clocked a week-on-week depreciation of 0.01 percent against the local currency at a reduced selling price of GHS5.75. The year-to-date appreciation of the cedi thus rose to 0.16 percent.

The British pound gained support from upbeat inflation and labour market data from the UK’s economy. Consumer price inflation jumped to outpace the 2 percent inflation target of the Bank of England as it settled at a year-on-year rate of 2.1 percent in June. This was the highest inflationary reading since July 2019. Unemployment rate dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 4.7 percent in the three months to April on the back of easing COVID-19 restrictions. Despite this, the British pound posted a week-on-week depreciation of 2.14 percent to trade at GHS7.95 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi thus dropped to 0.89 percent.

The Euro stood bullish on the international forex market as it benefitted from the fast pace of economic recovery in Italy. Italy’s trade balance swung to surplus in the month of April following improved development in its industry sector which led to export rising by 97.6 percent (y-o-y) from March’s growth of 28.1 percent. Trade balance registered a surplus of €5.87bn in April versus a deficit of €1.117bn in the same period last year. The euro was further supported after consumer price inflation converged at the European Central Bank’s target of 2 percent in June from a previous rate of 1.6 percent. Despite this development, the Euro depreciated by 1.95 percent to trade at GHS6.83. The year-to-date appreciation of the cedi thus rose to 3.51 percent last Friday.

International Market

Stock Indices

Wk. Open
Wk. Close
Change (%)
YTD (%)
S&P 500 Index
4,247.44
4,166.45
-1.91
10.93
DJIA
34,479.60
33,290.08
-3.45
8.77
FTSE 100
7,134.06
7,017.47
-1.63
8.62
NIKKEI 225
28,948.73
28,964.08
0.05
5.54
FTSE/JSEAllShare
67,723.91
65,635.23
-3.08
10.48
NSE All Share
39,157.29
38,641.33
-1.32
-4.05
Nairobi All Share
172.33
172.38
0.03
13.33

Wall Street closed the week’s trade in the red on account of the recently held monetary policy review by the US Federal Bank, after sounding more hawkish on interest rate hike sooner than the 2023 projection. In spite leaving the policy rate unchanged, amidst the bullish inflationary outlook and other economic recovery signs, plans to raise interest rate sooner than earlier planned, weighed on the stocks’ performers. The S&P 500 thus went down by 1.91 percent to settle at 4,166.45 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also dropped by 3.45 percent to close at 33,290.08 points.

The London Stock Exchange tumbled on account of significant selloffs within the banking and energy sectors. This stemed from diverging retail sales data in the UK. Retail sales came in at 1.4 percent to miss a target of 1.6 percent in May, affecting investors’ assessment of stocks within the banking and energy sectors. The banking stocks: HSBC and Lloyds Banking Group went down by 2 percent each to affect the overall market outturn. The FTSE 100 thus went down to 1.63 percent to close at 7,017.47 points.

The Japanese Stock Exchange clocked a marginal gain after the close of the week’s trading, despite suffering heavy selloff within the Paper & Pulp, Railway & Bus and Real Estate sectors last Friday. The positive closure of the market followed previous day’s gains recorded in stocks including the Fujikura Ltd, Taiyo Yuden Company and Fanuc Corporation Ltd. The Nikkei 225 thus saw 0.05 percent weekly advancement to settle at an index level of 28,964.08 points.

On the African equity market, the Nairobi All share Index upped by 0.03 percent to close at 172.38 points. The Johannesburg All Share Index on the other hand, registered a weekly decline of 3.08 percent to close at 65,635.23 points. The Nigerian All Share Index also fell by 1.32 percent to close at 38,641.33 points.

Commodities

Wk. Open
Wk. Close
Change
(%)
YTD (%)
Crude Oil $/barrel
72.69
72.61
-0.11
40.17
Gold $/ounce
1,879.60
1,792.55
-4.63
-5.41
Cocoa$/metric tonne
2,350.00
2,302.00
-2.04
-11.56
Coffee $/pound
1.5745
1.5015
-4.64
17.08
Source:www.bloomberg.com, & www.investing.com

Brent crude oil saw its prices dropping, as investors interpreted recent discussion on the removal of sanctions from Iran could result in inventory build-up, which could outstrip the demand outlook of the market. Brent crude oil thus went down by 8 cents to trade at $72.61 per barrel.

Gold went down on the international commodities market as investors digested the implication of the recent release minutes of US Fed meeting on their asset. Although interest rate was left unchanged, the bank however, signalled a potential hike in interest in 2023, dimming the outlook of the yellow metal. Gold thus shed $87.05 to trade at $1,792.55 per ounce.

Coffee’s price on the international commodities market dropped on account of efforts by the Colombian Government in removing export barriers, after reviewing the new tax reform bill it introduced in April 2021. This development is projected to increase global availability of the soft crop, hence, affecting its price. Coffee thus shed 7 cents to trade at $1.50 per pound.

Cocoa came under pressure, following the release of Bloomberg’s report, which suggested improved production outlook from Ghana, the world’s second largest producer. Production of the beans is said to have risen to its highest in 5-years as of 3rd June 2021 of 965,493 metric tonne, outstripping Government's target of 850,000 metric tonne and above ICCO's estimate of 950,000 metric tonnes. Cocoa thus went down by $48.00 to settle at $2,302.00 per metric tonne.

Note: The data in this publication is Friday on Friday (w/w)