Weekly Highlights

• Yields on GoG treasury securities witnessed mixed adjustment.
• GSE extended bullish run into new month.
• Ghana cedi appreciated against the US Dollar.
• Wallstreet gained as policy rate was left unchanged by the US Fed.
• Brent crude oil advanced despite imbalances in the global market.

Key Ghana Economic Data

Indicator 2018 2019 2020 2021 2021
Target Actual
Inflation CPI (y-o-y %) 9.40 7.90 10.40 8.00 10.30
Inflation PPI (y-o-y %) 4.40 13.00 7.00 n/a 13.00
Monetary Policy Rate (%) 17.0 16.00 14.50 n/a 14.50
GDP Growth (y-o-y %) 6.3 6.5 0.4 5.00 n/a
Budget Deficit (% of GDP 3.8 4.5Sep 11.7 9.50 n/a
Public Debt (% of GDP) 57.6 63.00 68.3 n/a n/a
Fx. Reserves (M. Cover) 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.00 n/a
Source: BOG; MOFEP; GSS. * represents provisional estimate ** data yet to be released by MoF

Government of Ghana Treasury Securities
Treasury Bills, Notes & Bonds (%)
Date 91-Day 182-day 364-day 2-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr
May 10 – 14 12.79 13.57 16.53 17.60 17.70 18.30
May 03 – 07 12.84 13.53 16.53 17.60 17.70 18.30
Apr 26 – 30 12.78 13.57 16.53 17.60 17.70 18.30
2021 Yr. Open 14.09 14.12 17.00 18.50 19.25 19.85
NB: The above are the annual yields on Government of Ghana Treasury Securities.

At the primary market, yields on the Government of Ghana treasury securities witnessed mixed adjustment. The yield on the 91-Day T-Bill dropped by 5 basis points to settle at 12.79 percent. The 182-Day T-Bill, on the other hand, rose by 4 basis points to settle at 13.57 percent. Interest rates on the 364-Day T-Bill was unchanged at 16.53 percent as it was not scheduled for the week’s auction. Interest rates on Government Treasury Notes and Bonds were also unchanged, as they were not part of the week’s issuance.

Results of Auction held on 7th May, 2021

Bill Bids Tendered GHS (Million) Bids Accepted GHS (Million) Interest Rate (%)
91-Day T-Bill 789.13 789.13 12.7898
182-Day T-Bill 124.12 124.12 13.5707

At the auction, Government accepted all the GHS913.25 million worth of bids tendered by investors. This was below the GHS1,142.00 million target expected to be raised by the Government at the week’s auction. The 91-Day T-Bill was the most accepted bid by the Government, it constituted 86.50 percent of the overall bids raised. An amount of GHS1,278.00 million is also expected to be raised at the upcoming auction from the sale of the 91-Day, 182-Day, and 364-Day T-Bills.

As anticipated, the yield on the Government of Ghana treasury securities sustained its normality despite the rate adjustment witnessed at the week’s auction. The normality of the yield curve is supported by the improving business and consumer confidence in the domestic economy as economic activities largely recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Ghana Stock Exchange

Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) Indices (YTD %)
Year 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
GSE-CI 52.73 -0.29 -12.25 -13.98 38.84
GSE-FSI 49.51 -6.79 -6.23 -11.73 6.07

The Ghana Stock Exchange sustained its uptrend as demand pressures for blue-chip stocks continued in the week’s trade. Strong demand for stocks of MTN Ghana Ltd, GCB Bank Ltd and Ecobank Ghana Ltd, following their dividend announcement, has significantly buoyed their demand in recent times. GCB Bank Ltd is expected to pay a dividend of 25 pesewas per share to its shareholders whereas shareholders in Ecobank Ghana Ltd are to receive 55 pesewas per share in the coming weeks. On the back of this, the GSE Composite Index, thus, finished with a week-on-week gain of 5.24 percent as it settled at 2,695.76 points, representing a year-to-date return of 38.84 percent. The GSE Financial Stocks Index posted a week-on-week gain of 0.74 percent as it rose to 1,840.99 points, corresponding to a year-to-date return of 6.07 percent.

GSE Market Indicators
Wk. Open Wk. End Change (%)
Total Volume Traded (M) 4.15 16.22 290.81
Total Value Traded (GHS M) 10.22 20.87 104.17
Market Cap (GHS M) 60,801.73 62,207.37 6.29

At the close of the truncated week, a total of 16.22 million shares valued at GHS20.87 million exchanged hands. This represents 290.81 percent increment over the previous week’s trade that realized a total of 4.15 million shares valued at GHS10.22 million. MTN Ghana Ltd led the activity chart with 96.70 percent share of the overall traded volume. Market capitalization also upped by 6.29 percent as it settled at GHS62,207.37 million

Stock Price Movements

At the pairing of the week’s opening and closing prices, a total of six stocks altered their share prices with no laggard recorded. Guinness Ghana Brewery Ltd led the bulls run with price appreciation of 30 pesewas to trade at GHS1.29 per share. GCB Bank Ltd and MTN Ghana Ltd followed with 20 pesewas and 10 pesewas gains to trade at GHS4.95 and GHS1.24 per share, respectively. FAN Milk Ltd and Standard Chartered Bank Ltd had their share prices rising by 4 pesewas each to close at GHS1.26 and GHS18.20 per share, respectively. Société Générale Ghana Ltd also upped by 3 pesewas to trade at 84 pesewas to complete the list of advancers in the week’s trade.

Stock Price Movers in terms of WK closing prices
Equity Yr. Open Wk. Open Wk. End Wk. Change (GHS) YTD (%)
GGBL 0.90 0.99 1.29 0.30 43.33
GCB 4.05 4.75 4.95 0.20 22.22
MTNGH 0.64 1.14 1.24 0.10 93.75
FML 1.08 1.22 1.26 0.04 16.67
SCB 16.31 18.16 18.20 0.04 11.59
SOGEGH 0.64 0.81 0.84 0.03 31.25

Currency Market
Currency Buying Selling Currency Buying Selling
USD 5.7287 5.7345 CAD 4.7141 4.7186
GBP 8.0145 8.0231 CFA 94.1615 94.2548
EUR 6.9594 6.9663 JPY 0.0528 0.0528
AUD 4.4945 4.5002 ZAR 0.4069 0.4073
NGN 71.3413 71.5263 CNY 0.8900 0.8909
Source: Bank of Ghana 07.04.2021

Trading on the interbank currency market ended with the Ghana cedi outshining the US dollar but depreciating against both the British pound and Euro. The US dollar on the international currency market was supported by positive development in US labour market as recent resumption in economic activities resulted in lower unemployment filling in the USA. Total US jobless claims for the week ended 30th April 2021 dropped significantly by about 92,000 to 498,000 people from the previous week’s estimate of 590,000. This outstripped market expectation of 540,000 to boost investors’ confidence in the pace of economic recovery in the US. Economic growth was bullish for the 1st quarter of 2021 as GDP growth rate stood at 6.4 percent, up from the 4.3 percent growth recorded in the 4th quarter of 2020. Despite this, the US dollar posted a week-on-week depreciation of 0.01 percent as the selling price dropped to GHS5.73 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date appreciation of the cedi thus rose to 0.50 percent.

The British pound remained stronger on the international forex market as economic activities improves to help overturn the worst economic performance by the UK economy in 300 years, in 2020. The Bank of England has upwardly reviewed the growth forecast for 2021 to 7.25 percent following the reopening of major sectors of the economy and the plans by the Government to up its expenditures to limit job losses. Following the reopening of its economy, economic activities in the Manufacturing sector witnessed an expansion following the uptrend of its PMI from an index level of 58.9 points in March to 60.9 points in April. The British pound thus finished with a week-on-week gain of 1.22 percent as its selling price rose to GHS8.02 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi thus widened to 1.80 percent.

The Euro gained support from upbeat economic data from the Eurozone regions which signalled improved economic activities. The overall economic growth for the region is projected to be at 4.4 percent by end of 2121. This comes on the back of other bullish reading, including the Services sector, which expanded by 50.5 points in April from 49.6 points recorded in March. Retail Sales for the entire region grew by 2.7 percent in March 2021 beating a forecast of 1.5 percent rise. Industrial production is also tipped to improve significantly in the region. These supported the Euro’s gains on the international forex market. The Euro thus recorded 0.697 percent appreciation as its selling price jumped to GHS6.97 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date appreciation of the cedi thus trimmed to 1.45 percent.

International Market

Stock Indices
Wk. Open Wk. Close Change (%) YTD (%)
S&P 500 Index 4,181.17 4,232.60 1.23 12.69
DJIA 33,879.00 34,777.76 2.65 13.63
FTSE 100 6,969.81 7,129.71 2.29 10.36
NIKKEI 225 28,812.63 29,357.82 1.89 6.97
FTSE/JSEAllShare 66,936.99 68,519.53 2.36 15.34
NSE All Share 39,840.28 39,198.75 -1.61 -2.66
Nairobi All Share 168.04 171.09 1.82 12.48

Wallstreet finished the week’s trade in the gains, with the Benchmark Indices registering new records after the week’s trading session. The anticipation and the subsequent confirmation of policy rate as it stayed unchanged, coupled with raft of upbeat earnings supported the market. The S&P 500 thus posted a week-on-week gain of 1.23 percent to settle at 4,232.60 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also recorded a year-to-date return of 2.65 percent to settle at 34,777.76 points.

The London Stocks Exchange, boosted by strong earnings, finished the week’s trade on a positive note. The heavyweight consumer staple stocks – Next and Engineer Melrose saw their share prices rising by 2.1percent and 1.2 percent, respectively, after they upwardly reviewed their profit outlook for the 2021-22 financial year. The FTSE 100 thus ended with a week-on-week gain of 2.29 percent to settle at 7,129.71 points.

The Japanese Stocks Exchange gained support from improved demand pressure in Paper & Pulp, Railway & Bus and Real Estate sectors. This comes at a time investor continue to digest the potential impact of recent signs of economic recovery on global inflation outlook. The Nikkei 225 thus upped by 1.89 percent as it settled at 29,357.82 points.

On the African equity market, the Johannesburg All Share Index rebounded by 2.36 percent to end the week’s trade at 68,519.53 points. The Nairobi All Share Index also sustained its uptrend by 1.82 percent to settle at an index level of 171.09 points. The Nigerian All Share Index, however, retreated by 1.61 percent to settle at 39,198.75 points.

Commodities
Wk. Open Wk. Close Change
(%) YTD (%)
Crude Oil $/barrel 66.66 68.28 2.43 31.81
Gold $/ounce 1,768.60 1,831.95 3.58 -3.33
Cocoa$/metric tonne 2,382.50 2,422.00 1.66 -6.95
Coffee $/pound 1.4155 1.523 7.59 18.75
Source:www.bloomberg.com, & www.investing.com -

Brent crude oil posted another round of weekly gain despite threat to demand outlook of the commodity ascribed to the heightened COVID-19 infections in India. The positive closure of the commodity is accounted by the reopening of regions in Europe and the US which was under COVID-19 restrictions amidst large draw in crude oil inventories in the US State. Brent crude oil thus gained $1.62 to trade at $68.28 per barrel.

Gold finished higher on account of bullish labour market data and dovish commentary by the US Fed to keep interest rate unchanged. This development which resulted in lower yields on Government bonds sparked demand for the yellow metal. Gold thus gained $63.35 to trade at $1,831.95 per ounce.

Coffee further upped its value following the downward revision of the production outlook of the soft crop, as the international Coffee Organisation (ICO) cut its 2020/21 global coffee production to 169.63 million bags from a previous estimate of 171.89 million bags. Coffee thus gained 11 cents to trade at $1.52 per pound.

Cocoa gained despite the over supply concerns in Ivory Coast attributed to improving climatic condition. The marginal gain in value of the soft crop on the international commodities market followed expectation of improved chocolate consumption as the pandemic uncertainties ease. Cocoa thus rose by $29.50.00 to trade at $2,422.00 per metric tonne.

Note: The data in this publication is Friday on Friday (w/w)