MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS
Q2, 2020 GDP Growth -3.2%
Average GDP Growth for 2020 0.9%
2020 Projected GDP Growth 0.9%
BoG Policy Rate – Sep, 2020 14.50%
Weekly Interbank Interest Rate 13.55%
Inflation for Oct, 2020 10.1%
End Period Inflation Target - 2020 11.1%
Budget Deficit (% GDP) – Jul, 2020 7.4%
2020 Budget Deficit Target (%GDP) 11.4%
Public Debt (billion GH¢) – Jul, 2020 263.1
Debt to GDP Ratio – Jul, 2020 68.3%

STOCK MARKET REVIEW
The GSE Composite Index gained 7.93 points (+0.44%) to close at 1,821.72 points, decreasing its year-to-date (YTD) loss to 19.29%. The GSE Financial Stocks Index (GSE FI) also gained 14.61 points (0.91%) to close at 1,623.20 points, reflecting YTD gain of 0.91%.

Market capitalization also increased by 0.47% for the week from GH¢52,869.61 million at the close of the previous week to GH¢53,118.12 million, representing YTD decline of 6.47%.

Trading activity strengthened for the week, with 61,301,612 shares, valued at GH¢40,971,813.53 changing hands, compared with 8,876,776 shares, valued at GH¢29,880,475.64 in the preceding week.
MTN Ghana Limited dominated both volume and value of trades for the week, accounting for 91.61% and 83.61% of total volume and value of shares traded respectively.

The market closed on Friday with 2 laggards and 3 gainers. State Insurance Company (SIC), the worse decliner for the week, posted a price decline of 20.00% to close at GH¢0.08 per share from GH¢0.10 at week open. Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI), posted the highest price gain of 14.29% to close the week at GH¢0.08 per share from GH¢0.07 at week open.
Thirty-three (33) counters remained flat at the closing bell on Friday.
The graphs and table below highlight activity on the market.

Best 4 & Worst 5 Performing Stocks
Best Performing Stocks:  YTD Return
Cocoa Processing Company 50.00%
Camelot Ghana Ltd. 22.22%
Aluworks Limited 10.00%
Dannex Ayrton Starwin Plc. 2.56%
   
Worst Performing Stocks:  
Fan Milk Ltd. -74.03%
Unilever Ghana -43.84%
Guinness Ghana Breweries Ltd. -40.83%
Ecobank Ghana -38.20%
Benso Oil Palm Plantation -30.07%

CURRENCY MARKET
The Cedi weakened against the USD for the week. It traded at GH¢5.7117/$ on Friday, compared with GH¢5.7107/$ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.02% and 3.12% respectively against the USD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 10.09% a year ago.
The Cedi also weakened against the GBP for the week. It traded at GH¢7.5160/£, compared with GH¢7.4827/£ at week open, reflecting w/w and YTD depreciations of 0.44% and 2.66% respectively against the GBP. This compares with YTD depreciation of 10.85% a year ago.
The Cedi meanwhile strengthened against the Euro. It traded at GH¢6.7529/€, compared with GH¢6.7690/€ at week open, reflecting w/w appreciation and YTD depreciation of 0.24% and 8.02% respectively against the Euro. This compares with YTD depreciation of 6.93% a year ago.
The Cedi likewise strengthened against the CAD on the week. It opened trading at GH¢4.3703/C$ but closed at GH¢4.3488/C$, reflecting w/w appreciation and YTD depreciation of 0.49% and 1.36% respectively against the CAD. This compares with YTD depreciation of 12.71% a year ago.

Weekly Interbank Foreign Exchange Rates
Currency Pair Year Open Week Open Week Close Change
% YTD
%
  01-01-20 09-11-20 13-11-20    
USD/GHS 5.5337 5.7107 5.7117 -0.02 -3.12
GBP/GHS 7.3164 7.4827 7.5160 -0.44 -2.66
EUR/GHS 6.2114 6.7690 6.7529 0.24 -8.02
CAD/GHS 4.2681 4.3703 4.3488 0.49 -1.86
Source: Bank of Ghana

GOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET
Government raised a sum of GH¢2,160.65 million for the week across the 91-Day and 182-Day Treasury Bills and the 7-Year Treasury Bond. This compared with GH¢1,924.00 million raised in the previous week. The Government further raised US$388.90 million from a 3-Year Dollar Bond.
The 91-Day and 182-Day Bills shed 5bps and 2bps to settle at 14.01% p.a. and 14.11% p.a. respectively. The 7-Year Bond added 50bps to settle at 20.50% p.a. The 3-Year Dollar Bond meanwhile settled at 4.75% p.a.
Please see below for more details.

Security Year Open Previous Yield % Current Yield % WoW Chg ( %) YTD Chg (%)
  01-01-20 06-11-20 13-11-20    
91 Day TB 14.70 14.06 14.01 -0.42 -4.70
182 Day TB 15.15 14.13 14.11 -0.16 -6.86
364 Day TB 17.90 16.97 16.97 0.00 -5.19
2-Yr FXR TN 20.95 18.50 18.50 0.00 -11.69
3-Yr Bond 19.70 19.00 19.00 0.00 -3.55
5-Yr Bond 19.50 19.85 19.85 0.00 1.79
6-Yr Bond 21.00 19.50 19.50 0.00 -7.14
7-Yr Bond 16.25 20.00 20.50 2.50 26.15
10-Yr Bond 19.80 19.80 19.80 0.00 0.00
15-Yr Bond 19.75 19.75 19.75 0.00 0.00
20-Yr Bond 20.20 20.20 20.20 0.00 0.00
Source: Bank of Ghana

COMMODITY MARKET
Gold prices closed stronger on Friday but this was not enough to overturn losses posted earlier in the week occasioned by progress made by Pfizer in its Covid-19 vacine trials. Gold futures settled at US$1,886.20 per ounce on Friday, reflecting w/w loss and YTD gain of 3.36% and 24.01% respectively.
Oil prices advanced for the week on the back of declines in gasoline and distillate inventories and and the progress made by Pfizer on its Covid-19 vaccine trials. Brent futures traded at US$42.78 a barrel on Friday, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 8.44% and 35.18% respectively.
Prices of Cocoa also closed higher for the week. Cocoa futures settled at US$2,365.00 per tonne, reflecting w/w gain and YTD loss of 1.37% and 6.89% respectively.

International Commodity Prices
Commodities Year Open Week Open Week Close Chg
% YTD
%
  01-01-20 09-11-20 13-11-20    
Brent crude oil (USD/bbl) 66.00 39.45 42.78 8.44 -35.18
Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,520.95 1,951.70 1,886.20 -3.36 24.01
Cocoa (USD/MT) 2,540.00 2,333.00 2,365.00 1.37 -6.89
Source: www.investing.com

BUSINESS TERM OF THE WEEK
Defeasance: Defeasance is a provision in a contract that voids a bond or loan on a balance sheet when the borrower sets aside cash or bonds sufficient enough to service the debt. The borrower sets aside cash to pay off the bonds; therefore, the outstanding debt and cash offset each other on the balance sheet and do not need to be recorded.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/defeasance.asp

ABOUT CIDAN

CIDAN Investments Limited is an investment and fund management company licensed by the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) and the National Pensions Regulatory Authority (NPRA).

Disclaimer
The contents of this report have been prepared to provide you with general information only. Information provided on and available from this report does not constitute any investment recommendation.
The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed.