? Yields on short-dated Treasury securities recorded mixed adjustments.
? GSE extended its bearish run.
? The Cedi lost its footing against all the 3 major trading currencies.
? Brent crude oil surged on hopes of an uptick in demand.
? Wallstreet firmed on optimism of covid-19 vaccine.

Ghana Economic Data

Indicator 2017 2018 2019 2020 2020
Target Actual
Inflation CPI (y-o-y %) 11.8 9.40 7.90 8.00 11.30
Inflation PPI (y-o-y %) 8.9 4.40 13.00 n/a 7.40
Monetary Policy Rate (%) 20.0 17.0 16.00 n/a 14.50
GDP Growth (y-o-y %) 8.5 6.3 6.5 6.8 4.90
Budget Deficit (% of GDP 5.9 3.8 4.5Sep 4.7 n/a
Public Debt (% of GDP) 69.8 57.6 63.00 n/a n/a
Fx. Reserves (M. Cover) 4.3 3.7 4.1 ?3.5 n/a
Source: BOG; MOFEP; GSS.

Government of Ghana Treasury Securities
Treasury Bills, Notes & Bonds (%)
Date 91-Day 182-Day 364-Day 2-Yr 3-Yr 5-Yr
Jul 13 – 17 13.99 14.02 16.92 18.75 18.85 19.25
Jul 06 – 10 13.97 14.09 16.89 18.75 18.85 19.25
Jun 29– Jul 03 13.95 14.01 16.89 18.75 18.85 19.25
2020Yr.Open 14.70 15.15 17.90 20.95 19.70 19.50
NB: The above are the annual yields on the Government of Ghana Treasury Securities.

At the close of the week’s auction, yields on the short-dated government of Ghana treasury securities recorded mixed adjustments. The interest rates on the 91-Day T-Bill rose further by 2 basis points to close at 13.99 percent. The yields on the 364–Day T-Bill also upped by 3 basis points to settle at 16.92 percent but that on the 182– Day T-Bill, eased by 7 basis points to close at 14.02 percent. Yields on the other treasury notes and bonds were unaltered as they were not booked for the week’s auction.

Results of Auction held on 10rd July, 2020

Bill Bids Tendered GHS (Million) Bids Accepted GHS (Million) Interest Rate (%)
91-Day T-Bill 709.62 709.62 13.9889
182-Day T-Bill 99.29 99.29 14.0204
364-Day T-Bill 124.27 124.27 16.9160

Government accepted all the GHS933.18, worth of bids tendered at the primary auction. The amount raised at the auction exceeded the previous week’s accepted bids of GHS534.16 million but missed the week’s target of GHS1,244.00 million. The 91-day T-bill constituted 76.04 percent of the total accepted bids. The target for next week’s auction has been pegged at GHS844.00 from the issuance of both the 91-Day and 182-Day T-Bills.

The yield curve continued to maintain its normality in spite of the mixed adjustments recorded on the short-dated securities. This is attributed to the prolonged downtrend in the equity market, amid uncertainties associated with the novel virus which has dimmed investor’s risky appetite.

Ghana Stock Exchange

Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) Indices (YTD %)
Year 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GSE-CI -15.33 52.73 -0.29 -12.25 -16.37
GSE-FSI -19.93 49.51 -6.79 -6.23 -14.57
The equity market closed in the red weighed by sell-offs in some financial and telecom stocks. The GSE Composite Index trimmed 0.79 percent to settle at an index level of 1,872.77 points, representing a year-to-date loss of 17.03 percent. Similarly, the Financial Stock Index tumbled by 0.32 percent to close at an index level of 1,719.73 points, corresponding to a year-to-date loss of 14.85 percent.

GSE Market Indicators
Wk. Open Wk. End Change (%)
Total Volume Traded (M) 0.36 6.58 1,731.43
Total Value Traded GHS (M) 0.22 3.95 1,706.39
Market Cap (GHS M) 52,823.34 52,837.03 0.03

Activity levels improved significantly with a total turnover of 6.58 million shares worth GHS3.95 changing hands as against the 0.36 million shares valued at GHS0.22 million posted in the previous week. Market capitalization also upturned by 0.03 percent to close at GHS 52,837.03 million.

Stock Price Movements

At the pairing of the day’s opening and closing prices, six equities recorded price changes comprising two advancers and four decliners. Ecobank Transnational Incorporated and Intravenous Infusion Ltd rose by a pesewa each to trade at 7 pesewas per share and 4 pesewas per share, respectively.

Stock Price Advancers in terms of WK closing prices
Equity Yr. Open Wk. Open Wk. End Wk. Change (GHS) YTD (%)
ETI 0.08 0.06 0.07 0.01 -12.50
IIL 0.05 0.03 0.04 0.01 -20.00

Standard Chartered Bank Ghana Ltd led the pack of losers; it shed 50 pesewas to close at 15.00 per share. CAL Bank Ltd followed suit with 6 pesewas loss to trade at 65 pesewas per share. Enterprise Group Ltd and MTN Ghana Ltd also dipped by a pesewa each to settle at GHS1.42 per share and 57 pesewas per share, respectively.

Stock Price Losers in terms of WK closing prices
Equity Yr. Open Wk. Open Wk. End Wk. Change (GHS) YTD (%)
SCB 18.40 15.50 15.00 -0.50 -18.48
CAL 0.89 0.71 0.65 -0.06 -26.97
EGL 1.65 1.43 1.42 -0.01 -13.94
MTNGH 0.70 0.58 0.57 -0.01 -18.57

Currency Market

Currency Buying Selling Currency Buying Selling
USD 5.6692 5.6748 CAD 4.1718 4.1747
GBP 7.1726 7.1809 CFA 102.1724 102.2441
EUR 6.4156 6.4201 JPY 0.0531 0.0531
AUD 3.9442 3.9495 ZAR 0.3380 0.3384
NGN 67.0839 67.1721 CNY 0.8086 0.8094
Source: Bank of Ghana 10.07.2020

On interbank currency market, the Ghana Cedi recorded another round of depreciation against the three major trading currencies. The US Dollar closed slightly higher as uncertainties associated with the covid-19 pandemic and elevated claims on unemployment benefits dimmed investor’s risk appetite. A spike in new infections as the daily case count hit its’ highest of 60,000 re-ignited calls for a scale down in reopening of some states in US. Moreover, jobless claims in the US remained elevated at 1.31 million in the week ended July 4, albeit lower than the 1.39 million recorded in the previous weekend. The US dollar, riding on safe haven sentiments, appreciated by 0.07 percent to sell at GHS5.67 on the interbank currency market. This represents a year-to-date depreciation of 2.44 percent.

The British Pound surged to a three-week high on hopes of an imminent trade deal as negotiations resumed. Investors cheered the prospects of a trade deal spurred by the UK and Euro’s renewal of their commitment towards reaching a compromise on key issues such as the European Union’s access to British water and level playing field provisions on environmental, labour and social standards. Following the Pound’s outturn, it rose by 1.55 percent to trade at GHS7.18. The year-to-date appreciation of the cedi thus narrowed to 1.94 percent.

The Euro edged higher driven by bullish economic data from Eurozone’s largest economy- Germany. Germany’s trade surplus for May came in better than-expected at 7.6 billion euros against the 5.2 billion euros forecast. Factory orders also upped by 10.4 percent in May against the downwardly revised contraction of 26.2 percent in the previous month, which buoyed investor’s optimism on the economic outlook of the bloc. The Euro thus posted a weekly gain of 0.70 percent to exchange at GHS6.42 on the interbank currency market. The year-to-date depreciation of the cedi thus worsened to 3.22 percent.

International Markets

Stock Indices
Wk. Open Wk. Close Change (%) YTD (%)
S&P 500 Index 3,101.01 3,185.04 2.71 -1.42
DJIA 25,827.36 26,075.30 0.96 -8.63
FTSE 100 6,157.30 6,095.41 -1.01 -19.19
NIKKEI 225 22,306.48 22,990.81 3.07 -2.81
FTSE/JSEAllShare 54,521.90 55,417.89 1.64 -2.92
NSE All Share 24,336.12 24,306.36 -0.12 -9.45
Nairobi All Share 139.57 132.38 -5.15 -20.45

Wallstreet sustained its gains on account of upbeat developments from Gilead Sciences drug which eased covid-19 fears. Further clinical trials carried out on covid-19 trial drug-remdesivir revealed the drug’s effectiveness in speeding up recovery and reducing the risk of death among patients which sparked risk taking activities on the bourse. The S&P 500 thus recorded a week-on-week gain of 2.71 percent to settle at an index level of 3,185.04 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced by 0.96 percent to end the week at 26,705.30 points.

The London Stock Exchange extended its losses as UK’s economic recovery policy failed to lift market sentiments. The FTSE 100 was weighed by investor’s muted response to stimulus packages announced by Rishi Sunak-Finance minister such as tax cuts and bonus to employers. The FTSE 100 thus slumped by 1.01 percent in the trading week to close at 6,095.41 points.

The Nikkei 225 advanced on the international stock market on investors’ optimism, as they braced for the upcoming Bank of Japan policy decision for cues on policy directives on the outlook of the economy. The Nikkei 225 thus rose by 3.05 percent to close at 22,990.81 points.

On the African equity market, the Johannesburg All Share Index climbed by 1.64 percent to settle at 55,417.90 points. The Nairobi All Share Index, on the other hand, eased by 5.15 percent to settle at 132.38 points. The Nigerian All Share Index, also dipped by 0.12 percent to close the week at 24,306.36 points.

Commodities
Wk. Open Wk. Close Change (%) YTD (%)
Crude Oil ($/barrel) 42.80 43.24 1.03 -34.48
Gold ($/ounce) 1,787.60 1,801.90 0.80 18.30
Cocoa ($/metric tonne) 2,214.00 2,278.00 2.89 -10.31
Coffee ($/pound) 1.0225 0.9615 -5.97 -25.87
Source:www.bloomberg.com, & www.investing.com

Brent crude oil surged as the upwardly reviewed demand forecasts for the commodity sparked positive sentiments. The International Energy Agency revised its demand forecasts for the Brent crude from a previous estimate of 400,000 barrels per day to 92.1 million barrels per day (bpd), following gradual easing of some lockdown restrictions across the globe. Brent crude oil thus rose by 1.03 percent to close at $43.24 per barrel.

Gold stretched its winning streak to a fifth consecutive session on account of heightened worries associated with the covid-19 pandemic and increased investor’s bets on a second stimulus package. Gold edged up by 0.80 percent to end the week at $1,801.90 per ounce.

Cocoa rebounded on the international commodities market buoyed by the first disbursement of $200 million out of the $600 million syndicated loan in a bid to boost cocoa production in Ghana. Cocoa thus traded 2.98 percent higher at $2,278 per metric tonne.

Coffee sank lower in the trading week weighed by the depreciation of the Brazilian real which affected demand for the agricultural commodity. Coffee thus slipped by 5.97 percent to close at 96 cents per pound.

Note: The data in this publication is Friday on Friday (w/w)