There is evidence that the death rate for those infected with Covid-19 in Africa is on the increase.

And although the overall number of new cases has fallen in some countries, it remains persistently high in others, with many of these cases possibly linked to new variants of the virus.
What's happening to case numbers?

At least 40 countries have now seen a second wave of the pandemic, including all countries in the southern Africa region, says the Africa Centres for Disease Control (CDC).

"This new wave of infections is thought to be associated with the emergence of variants that are more transmissible."

A new variant of the virus - known as 501.V2 - emerged in South Africa last year, and has contributed to record case numbers in the southern African region, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

"Initial analysis indicates that the variant... may spread more readily between people," according to the WHO.

However, it doesn't appear to cause more serious illness.

In South Africa itself, daily new case numbers have started to fall significantly after a second peak.

And because there are many more cases in South Africa than anywhere else on the continent, this has resulted in an overall fall of 17% in cases across the continent, according to the CDC.

In Nigeria, scientists have also identified a new variant of the virus, although they say there is currently no evidence to indicate it is contributing to increased transmission.

However, cases in Nigeria have been on the rise since early December, and are only just starting to trend downwards.

Death rates have been rising

The WHO says twice as many people died of Covid-19 in the four weeks between 29 December 2020 and 25 January compared with the previous four weeks.

However, the numbers have started to level off (the WHO data excludes Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Djibouti and Somalia).

During the first stage of the pandemic, Africa's overall fatality rates -the proportion of those with Covid who then die - were lower than those elsewhere in the world.

There were a number of theories put forward as to why that might be the case, such as the relatively younger population, and possible cross-immunity from other coronaviruses.

But the Africa CDC has now warned about rising fatality rates in the continent, saying that of the 55 countries they monitor, 21 are now reporting fatality rates above the current global average of 2.2%.

The fatality rate for Africa has crept up since July last year when it was 2.1% - to 2.5% currently.

It's worth pointing out that the global fatality rate has also come down since the start of the pandemic, which in itself would put more African countries above the global average.

And fatality rates are affected by how much testing is done - a country with low levels of testing will show a higher death rate because many non-fatal Covid cases are going undetected.

Coronavirus data in detail

*Deaths per 100,000 people

Country Deaths Death Rates Total Cases

US 439,342 134.3 26,083,187
Brazil 224,504 107.2 9,204,731
Mexico 158,536 125.6 1,864,260
India 154,392 11.4 10,757,610
UK 106,158 158.1 3,817,176
Italy 88,516 146.0 2,553,032
France 76,057 117.0 3,197,114
Russia 72,029 49.4 3,808,348
Spain 58,319 124.9 2,743,119
Iran 57,959 70.9 1,417,999
Germany 57,273 68.9 2,225,659
Colombia 53,983 108.7 2,094,884
Argentina 47,974 108.1 1,927,239
South Africa 44,164 76.4 1,453,761
Peru 41,026 128.2 1,138,239
Poland 37,180 98.0 1,513,385
Indonesia 29,998 11.2 1,078,314
Turkey 25,993 31.6 2,477,463
Ukraine 23,921 54.1 1,263,576
Belgium 21,092 183.7 710,153
Canada 20,005 54.0 782,467
Chile 18,452 98.5 727,109
Romania 18,335 94.0 728,743
Czech Republic 16,392 153.7 987,329
Ecuador 14,859 87.0 250,828
Netherlands 14,001 82.1 978,671
Iraq 13,047 33.9 619,636
Hungary 12,524 129.0 367,586
Portugal 12,482 121.7 720,516
Pakistan 11,683 5.5 546,428
Sweden 11,591 116.2 566,957
Philippines 10,749 10.1 525,618
Bolivia 10,379 91.4 216,835
Switzerland 9,381 110.0 521,320
Egypt 9,316 9.5 165,951
Bulgaria 9,045 128.3 218,748
Morocco 8,275 23.0 471,157
Bangladesh 8,127 5.0 535,139
Austria 7,721 86.8 414,398
Tunisia 6,754 58.4 208,885
Saudi Arabia 6,375 18.9 368,074
Greece 5,796 55.1 156,957
Japan 5,767 4.5 390,740
Guatemala 5,643 32.7 159,504
Panama 5,270 126.2 320,379
Croatia 5,027 120.9 232,426
China 4,817 0.3 100,063
Israel 4,796 57.2 646,277
Bosnia and Herzegovina 4,679 140.8 121,497
Slovakia 4,642 85.1 249,913
Jordan 4,316 43.3 326,855
Serbia 4,020 57.6 395,263
Honduras 3,610 37.7 147,843
Slovenia 3,503 168.6 166,473
Moldova 3,438 84.8 159,804
Ireland 3,307 68.6 196,547
Georgia 3,194 79.8 258,351
Azerbaijan 3,132 31.5 230,219
Myanmar 3,131 5.8 140,145
Armenia 3,084 104.5 167,088
Lebanon 3,082 44.9 301,052
Kazakhstan 3,046 16.6 235,844
Algeria 2,891 6.8 107,339
North Macedonia 2,855 137.1 92,693
Lithuania 2,803 100.1 182,539
Paraguay 2,718 39.1 133,227
Dominican Republic 2,666 25.1 214,060
Costa Rica 2,604 52.1 193,276
Afghanistan 2,400 6.5 55,023
Denmark 2,125 36.9 198,472
Ethiopia 2,093 1.9 137,650
Nepal 2,029 7.2 270,959
Libya 1,877 28.1 118,631
Palestinian Territories 1,833 37.7 158,962
Sudan 1,807 4.3 29,380
Kenya 1,763 3.4 100,773
Belarus 1,718 18.2 248,336
El Salvador 1,632 25.4 54,966
Nigeria 1,586 0.8 131,242
Oman 1,529 31.7 134,326
Kosovo 1,498 81.2 60,218
South Korea 1,425 2.8 78,508
Kyrgyzstan 1,412 22.4 84,588
Albania 1,380 47.9 78,127
Zimbabwe 1,217 8.4 33,388
Latvia 1,195 62.0 66,241
Venezuela 1,189 4.1 126,927
Kuwait 959 23.2 165,257
Syria 921 5.4 14,048
Australia 909 3.7 28,818
United Arab Emirates 850 8.8 303,609
Montenegro 805 128.2 61,659
Zambia 763 4.4 54,217
Malaysia 760 2.4 214,959
Malawi 702 3.9 23,963
Finland 671 12.2 45,238
DR Congo 671 0.8 22,771
Senegal 628 4.0 26,523
Uzbekistan 621 1.9 78,755
Yemen 615 2.2 2,121
Luxembourg 577 95.5 50,388
Eswatini 565 49.7 15,711
Norway 564 10.6 62,966
Angola 466 1.5 19,796
Cameroon 462 1.8 29,617
Uruguay 436 12.6 41,738
Mauritania 422 9.6 16,635
Estonia 419 31.7 44,208
Ghana 416 1.4 67,010
Bahrain 375 23.9 103,057
Mozambique 367 1.2 38,654
Namibia 352 14.4 33,944
Jamaica 350 11.9 15,653
Mali 330 1.7 8,091
Uganda 324 0.8 39,579
Sri Lanka 316 1.5 64,157
Belize 301 78.6 11,908
Madagascar 281 1.1 19,065
Malta 267 60.8 17,903
Qatar 248 8.9 151,335
Haiti 245 2.2 11,533
Cuba 214 1.9 26,686
Cyprus 199 16.7 30,876
Rwanda 196 1.6 15,304
Bahamas 176 45.6 8,174
Guyana 176 22.6 7,641
Lesotho 172 8.2 8,664
Nicaragua 169 2.6 6,253
Niger 159 0.7 4,517
Guadeloupe 157 39.3 9,156
Ivory Coast 154 0.6 28,399
Suriname 154 26.7 8,438
Botswana 134 5.9 21,293
Cape Verde 134 24.6 14,070
Trinidad and Tobago 134 9.6 7,564
French Polynesia 131 47.2 18,060
Somalia 130 0.9 4,784
Gambia 128 5.6 4,090
Burkina Faso 120 0.6 10,682
Chad 118 0.8 3,376
Congo 117 2.2 7,887
Andorra 101 131.2 9,937
Comoros 93 11.2 2,726
Tajikistan 90 1.0 13,308
Equatorial Guinea 86 6.6 5,516
Liberia 84 1.7 1,939
Guinea 82 0.7 14,546
Channel Islands 82 48.1 3,691
Sierra Leone 79 1.0 3,593
Thailand 77 0.1 19,618
Togo 77 1.0 5,074
Gibraltar 77 228.4 4,114
French Guiana 76 26.9 16,083
Gabon 68 3.2 10,748
San Marino 67 198.3 3,025
South Sudan 64 0.6 3,929
Djibouti 63 6.6 5,932
Central African Republic 63 1.4 4,981
Mayotte 61 23.5 8,231
Aruba 59 55.7 6,966
Maldives 52 10.1 15,841
Benin 52 0.5 3,893
Liechtenstein 52 137.1 2,493
Réunion 46 5.2 9,996
Guinea-Bissau 45 2.4 2,634
Martinique 44 11.7 6,370
Vietnam 35 0.0 1,817
Singapore 29 0.5 59,536
Iceland 29 8.6 6,002
Saint Martin 27 72.5 1,862
New Zealand 25 0.5 2,304
Isle of Man 25 29.7 434
Curaçao 21 12.9 4,585
Tanzania 21 0.0 509
Sao Tome and Principe 17 8.1 1,257
Barbados 14 4.9 1,545
Monaco 13 33.6 1,489
Saint Lucia 13 7.1 1,195
Diamond Princess cruise ship 13 712
Bermuda 12 19.1 691
Mauritius 10 0.8 569
Turks and Caicos Islands 9 23.9 1,503
Papua New Guinea 9 0.1 867
Taiwan 8 0.0 911
Eritrea 7 0.2 2,135
Antigua and Barbuda 7 7.3 234
Seychelles 4 4.1 1,205
Brunei 3 0.7 180
Mongolia 2 0.1 1,814
Burundi 2 0.0 1,632
St Vincent and the Grenadines 2 1.8 901
Cayman Islands 2 3.1 390
Fiji 2 0.2 55
MS Zaandam cruise ship 2 9
Bhutan 1 0.1 859
Faroe Islands 1 2.1 654
Saint Barthelemy 1 10.2 360
Grenada 1 0.9 148
British Virgin Islands 1 3.4 114
Montserrat 1 20.0 13
Cambodia 0 0.0 466
Dominica 0 0.0 117
Timor-Leste 0 0.0 70
New Caledonia 0 0.0 47
Laos 0 0.0 44
Falkland Islands 0 0.0 41
Saint Kitts and Nevis 0 0.0 37
Greenland 0 0.0 30
Vatican 0 0.0 27
Saint Pierre and Miquelon 0 0.0 24
Solomon Islands 0 0.0 17
Anguilla 0 0.0 16
Marshall Islands 0 0.0 4
Samoa 0 0.0 2
Vanuatu 0 0.0 1
Micronesia 0 0.0 1

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This information is regularly updated but may not reflect the latest totals for each country.

** The past data for new cases is a three day rolling average. Due to revisions in the number of cases, an average cannot be calculated for this date.

Source: Johns Hopkins University, national public health agencies and UN population data

Figures last updated: 1 February 2021, 08:31 GMT

More importantly, data for deaths should be treated with caution, given the wide variations in how countries record them.

In South Africa, research into excess deaths - that's the number of deaths in a certain period above what would normally be expected - shows that there were 83,918 between 6 May last year and 5 January this year.

The official death toll from Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic is currently at just under 45,000 deaths.

And South Africa was just one of eight countries on the continent that the BBC found in a recent investigation had adequate death registration systems.

So coronavirus deaths across Africa as a whole are likely to be under-recorded.
How much testing is done in Africa?

The WHO says testing in Africa is still low compared to other regions, and there's also concern that irregular levels of testing over time may be masking the true spread of the virus.

Coronavirus test sample being extracted by lab worker in Kisumu

There are wide variations in testing rates and while some countries have reduced testing, others have maintained or even increased it at different points during the pandemic.

Of the bigger countries, South Africa has been doing the most and Nigeria doing relatively few tests per capita, according to Our World in Data, a UK-based project which collates Covid-19 information.

However, in some countries there are insufficient or no data available on testing to know how much is being done.

The King's Global Health Institute, which tracks the pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa, says that testing activity in some countries also fell back after the first wave of the virus had subsided.

"Those countries that cut back on testing after the first wave will...have had less extensive and timely intelligence from surveillance," it says.